Objective Phellodendron amurense, a special species in Northeast Asia, is the source of the wild medicinal Phellodendri Amurensis Cortex, the second-level key protection in China. Because of its dual value of medicine and timber, it has been cut in large quantities, resulting in a sharp decline in wild resources. It has been listed as a national first-class rare tree species. Here, we aim to plan protection area and wild tending area for Chinese P. amurense in the context of climate change. Method In this study, based on the Biomod2 model, the main environmental factors affecting the distribution and the potentially suitable areas of the current and future were investigated. Furthermore, the correlation between the main environmental factors and the chemical components was determined by full subset regression. Habitat quality and landscape pattern change were determined by InVEST and Fragstats software based on the land use data in 1980, 2000, and 2020. Then, Zonation software was used to plan the priority protection and wild tending areas. Results The results showed that in the future, the potential habitat of P. amurense will gradually move to the high latitude and high altitude areas in the northwest direction, and the high suitability area will decrease sharply. Since 1980, the habitat quality of P. amurense habitat has gradually deteriorated, and the fragmentation has gradually intensified. In the future, the central part of the Greater Khingan Mountains and the forest area of the Lesser Khingan Mountains will be the long-term stable sanctuary. Fengcheng City and Tonghua County are the most suitable for the wild tending areas. Conclusion The existing nature reserve only contains 6.01% of the priority protection area, so we propose to expand the area to cover a larger proportion of the sanctuary and implement management and restoration plans to increase the suitability and connectivity. These results can support the protection action and provide a reference and scientific basis for further research, rational development, and utilization of P. amurense.

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Optimizing the distribution pattern of species under climate change: the protection and management of Phellodendron amurense in China

Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus, 1758)), Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria Linnaeus, 1758), and Siberian locust (Gomphocerus sibiricus (Linnaeus, 1767)) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions. Predicting the geographic distribution changes and future habitats of locusts in the context of climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. In this study, the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, employing a combination of climatic, soil, and topographic factors, was used to predict the potential fitness areas of typical locusts in the 2030s and 2050s, assuming four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. Modeling results showed that the mean area under the curve (AUC) and true statistical skill (TSS) of the MaxEnt model reached 0.933 and 0.7651, respectively, indicating that the model exhibited good prediction performance. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species were mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, and the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 × 104-4.6 × 104 km2 by the 2030s and by 6.4 × 104-10.6 × 104 km2 by the 2050s. As the climate becomes more extreme, the suitable area will shrink, but the highly suitable area will expand; thus, the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. Our study present a timely investigation to add to extensive literature currently appearing regarding the myriad ways climate change may affect species. While this naturally details a limited range of taxa, methods and potential impacts may be more broadly applicable to other locust species. 

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Predictions Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios: The Habitat of Typical Locust Species Is Shrinking in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, China

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Saposhnikovia divaricata suitable area in China under climate change

This article investigates the climatic characteristics of Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin and the primary impact system based on Meiyu onset data from 1954 to 2020, precipitation during the Meiyu Period, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, sea surface temperature (SST) data of NOAA, and western Pacific subtropical high (sub-high) data provided by the National Climate Center. The main analytical method used is synthetic analysis. The results indicate that the Meiyu onset date has enormous interannual variation. The date of the earliest Meiyu emergence is 27 days prior to the latest. There is a strong relationship between the duration of Meiyu and rainfall. The start of Meiyu correlates with the northward motion of the South Asia High, the northward jump of the westerly jet, the northward jump of the subtropical high, and the northward motion of the low-level jet. In the early Meiyu years featured in this study, the northward jump of the aforementioned systems occurred earlier and the position of the westerly jet shifted from 34–35°N to 38–40°N, which is much further north than its position under typical climatic circumstances. From late May to early June, the subtropical high was extraordinarily powerful, the ridgeline reached 20°N, and its position was further to the north. In years with a late Meiyu onset, the position of the westerly jet and the ridgeline were further south than the climatological average from early to late June; the jump to the north was not evident until late June. In addition, SST anomalies of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean are significant external forcing variables that influence the Meiyu start date. The high SST of the equatorial Indian Ocean and the equatorial tropical eastern Pacific in the autumn of the preceding year and the high SST of the equatorial Indian Ocean in the spring of that year are prophase indicators of an early Meiyu start in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.

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Xiaoxia Jin

Papers

Distribution pattern and change prediction of Saposhnikovia divaricata suitable area in China under climate change

Evolution characteristics of impact weather system and SST signals during years of anomalous Meiyu onset over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin