This article explores the suitability of a long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) and artificial intelligence (AI) method for low-flow time series forecasting. The long short-term memory works on the sequential framework which considers all of the predecessor data. This forecasting method used daily discharged data collected from the Basantapur gauging station located on the Mahanadi River basin, India. Different metrics [root-mean-square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS), correlation coefficient (R) and mean absolute error] were selected to assess the performance of the model. Additionally, recurrent neural network (RNN) model is also used to compare the adaptability of LSTM-RNN over RNN and naive method. The results conclude that the LSTM-RNN model (R = 0.943, ENS = 0.878, RMSE = 0.487) outperformed RNN model (R = 0.935, ENS = 0.843, RMSE = 0.516) and naive method (R = 0.866, ENS = 0.704, RMSE = 0.793). The finding of this research concludes that LSTM-RNN can be used as new reliable AI technique for low-flow forecasting.

Long short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network for low flow hydrological time series forecasting

SUMMARY 1. The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows

The Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA): A Framework for Developing Regional Environmental Flow Standards

Hydrological studies are useful in designing, planning, and managing water resources, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Probability distribution models are applied in extreme flood analysis, drought investigations, reservoir volumes studies, and time-series modelling, among other various hydrological studies. However, the selection of the most suitable probability distribution and associated parameter estimation procedure, as a fundamental step in flood frequency analysis, has remained the most difficult task for many researchers and water practitioners. This paper explains the current approaches that are used to identify the probability distribution functions that are best suited for the estimation of maximum, minimum, and mean streamflows. Then, it compares the performance of six probability distributions, and illustrates four fitting tests, evaluation procedures, and selection procedures through using a river basin as a case study. An assemblage of the latest computer statistical packages in an integrated development environment for the R programming language was applied. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests-based analysis, and information criteria-based selection procedures were used to identify the most suitable distribution models. The results showed that the gamma (Pearson type 3) and lognormal distribution models were the best-fit functions for maximum streamflows, since they had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion values of 1083 and 1081, and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values corresponding to 1087 and 1086, respectively. The Weibull, GEV, and Gumbel functions were the best-fit functions for the annual minimum flows of the Tana River, while the lognormal and GEV distribution functions the best-fit functions for the annual mean flows of the Tana River. The choices of the selected distribution functions may be used for forecasting hydrologic events and detecting the inherent stochastic characteristics of the hydrologic variables for predictions in the Tana River Basin. This paper also provides a significant contribution to the current understanding of predicting extreme hydrological events for various purposes. It indicates a direction for hydro-meteorological scientists within the current debate surrounding whether to use historical data and trend estimation techniques for predicting future events with issues of non-stationarity and underlying stochastic processes.

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Identification of the Most Suitable Probability Distribution Models for Maximum, Minimum, and Mean Streamflow

In February 2017, a failure occurring in Oroville Dam’s main spillway risked causing severe damages downstream. A unique aspect of this incident was the fact that it happened during a flood scenario well within its design and operational procedures, prompting research into its causes and determining methods to prevent similar events from reoccurring. In this study, a hydroclimatic analysis of Oroville Dam’s catchment is conducted, along with a review of related design and operational manuals. The data available allows for the comparison of older flood-frequency analyses to new alternative methods proposed in this paper and relevant literature. Based on summary characteristics of the 2017 floods, possible causes of the incident are outlined, in order to understand which factors contributed more significantly. It turns out that the event was most likely the result of a structural problem in the dam’s main spillway and detrimental geological conditions, but analysis of surface level data also reveals operational issues that were not present during previous larger floods, promoting a discussion about flood control design methods, specifications, and dam inspection procedures, and how these can be improved to prevent a similar event from occurring in the future.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/1/37/pdf

Insights into the Oroville Dam 2017 Spillway Incident


 To efficiently develop power generation and solve downstream ecological health protection in Qingjiang basin, multi-objective ecological operation for cascade reservoirs (MOEOCR) model is established in contrast to conventional models that set ecological water requirement as constraint. The basic, suitable and ideal ecological water requirements in Geheyan and Gaobazhou sections are calculated using a requirement level index. Instead of the traditional evolution mode based on population, we introduce a shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA) which evolves independently in sub-populations. Moreover, the SFLA is converted into a modified multi-objective algorithm (MMOSFLA) with strategies including chaotic population initialization, renewed frog grouping method and local search method, and elite frog set evolution based on cloud model. The water level corridor is used to help effectively handle complex constraints. The IGD and GD indexes are used to evaluate quality of solutions acquired by each method. In terms of normal year, the mean IGD and GD of MMOSFLA are 1.2 × 10–1 and 2.75 × 10–2, respectively. The scheduling results verify efficient search ability and convergence performance in solution diversity and distribution in comparison with other methods. Therefore, MMOSFLA is verified to provide an effective way to fulfill hydropower and ecological benefits facing the MOEOCR problem.

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The multi-objective operation for cascade reservoirs using MMOSFLA with emphasis on power generation and ecological benefit

Over the last decade, Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) has focused scientific attention around heavily-modified hydrosystems, such as flow regulated releases downstream of dams. In this light, numerous approaches of varying complexity have been developed, the most holistic of which incorporate hydrological, hydraulic, biological and water quality inputs, as well as socioeconomic issues. Finding the optimal flow releases, informing policy and determining an operational framework are often the main focus. This work exhibits a simplification of the DRIFT framework, and is regarded as the first holistic EFA approach, consisting of three modules, namely hydrological, hydraulic and fish quality. A novel conceptual classification for fish quality is proposed, associating fish fauna requirements with hydraulic characteristics, exported by fish survey analyses. The new methodology was applied and validated successfully at three stream sites in Lesotho, where DRIFT was formerly employed.

Yanis Katselis

Papers

Assessment of Environmental Flows from Complexity to Parsimony—Lessons from Lesotho