An evaluation method for the urban post-earthquake fire risk considering multiple scenarios of fire spread and evacuation

In this article, we develop statistical models to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by earthquake ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, we fitted three types of models-generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. Models were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best models generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All models demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition models. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. Models with the best predictive power included two or three covariates.

Statistical Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

Due to recent climate change, highly-connected society, and the centralization of hazardous materials, Natech is a matter of the growing concern. As Natech disasters occur with low frequency, those in charge of facilities should learn lessons from past cases to prepare for situations in the future in which they may have to respond to a potentially catastrophic event for the first time. This paper describes three Natech cases triggered by the heavy rainfall in Japan in 2018. One resulted in violent explosions, one showed consequences half a year later, and the other managed to avoid a catastrophic situation by preparation based on prior analysis of possible damage. The lessons which can be learnt are as follows: Undertake measures based on the hazardous conditions of materials and possible reactions; Avoid normalcy bias for improved decision-making; Identify slow developing and lagging Natech consequences; Prepare and intensify safeguards to avoid possible damage based on risk analysis; Consider employees’ safety in returning to their homes; Collect micro information and aggregate it; Provide current information about the situation to stakeholders; Plan resources required for recovery activities.

Three cases in Japan occurred by natural hazards and lessons for Natech disaster management.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the consideration of simultaneous occurrence of seismically induced events in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) such as failures of components due to seismic stress, seismically induced fire, and seismically induced internal flooding in seismic probabilistic safety assessment(PSA). The seismic risk is estimated in terms of the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and the CDF is comprised of occurrence frequencies of accident sequences. In this study, two analytical methods, upper bound approximation (UBA) using minimal cut sets (MCSs) and direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) are selected for comparison. The results showed that the simultaneous occurrence of seismically induced events should be reasonably considered to assess the intersection and the union of these events. In addition, the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and the Tsunami damaged NPPs on the Pacific Coast of Eastern Japan on March 11, 2011 will be examined in this study.

Effect of Simultaneous Consideration for Seismically Induced Events on Core Damage Frequency

Investigation on the impacts of natural lighting on occupants' wayfinding behavior during emergency evacuation in underground space

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THE EFFECT OF WALL SURFACE LUMINANCE IN A MODEL SPACE TO SELECT ESCAPE ROUTE : A study on toward light character when select escape route in building fire

MECHANISM OF THE OUTBREAK OF FIRE IN THE 1995 HYOGO-KEN NAMBU EARTHQUAKE : In comparison with past earthquake fire cases

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/aija/66/550/66_KJ00004230420/_pdf

Study on the reconstruction planning of cities damaged at the destructive fire after world war ii

An effect of passage width on choice of egress route at a t-junctoin in a building

The purpQse Qf this study is tQ Qbtain a better understanding Qf human behaviQr III fire. In this study, we measured the physiQIQgical indices (sympathetic nerve, parasympathetic nerve) and the psychQIQgical index (questiQnnaires of feelings tactors) during fire drills at the Disaster Prevention-Training Center in HirQshima, lapan. This training center has a unique stressful training program in which drill participants stay Qvernight. Devices fQr measuring physiolQgical index were attached III SQme participants during fire drills. After the fire drills, we conducted questiQnnaires of feelings factors value on emergency state. We analyzed physiolQgical Indices, psychQlogical indices and cQrrelation between physiolQgical indices and psychQIQgical indices. As a result Qf this study, we understoQd the follQwing results. I. High sympathetic nerve value and low parasympathetic nerve value were Qbserved during some trainings in which participants have difficulty tQ forecast next necessary actiQns. , The cQrrelatiQn cQefficients among feelings factors were relatively high. \\. The correlatiQn cQefficients amQng sympathetic nerve values, parasympathetic nerve values and feelings factQrs values were relatively low. Nevertheless, Maximum Qf parasympathetic nerve values Qf ratio fQr average Qf 24hQurs tends tQ be IQW in the condition of high feelings factors values.

Yoshiteru Murosaki

Papers

THE EFFECT OF WALL SURFACE LUMINANCE IN A MODEL SPACE TO SELECT ESCAPE ROUTE : A study on toward light character when select escape route in building fire

MECHANISM OF THE OUTBREAK OF FIRE IN THE 1995 HYOGO-KEN NAMBU EARTHQUAKE : In comparison with past earthquake fire cases

Study on the reconstruction planning of cities damaged at the destructive fire after world war ii

An effect of passage width on choice of egress route at a t-junctoin in a building

Correlation between physiological index and psychological index during stressfull fire drills