Monitoring land use and land cover changes in the mountainous cities of Oman using GIS and CA-Markov modelling techniques

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) has directly played an important role in the observed climate change. In this paper, we considered Dujiangyan City and its environs (DCEN) to study the future scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 based on the 2018 simulation results from 2007 and 2018 LULC maps. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of future LULCC, including the future potential landscape risk (FPLR) area of the 2008 great (8.0 Mw) earthquake of south-west China. The Cellular automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) model and multicriteria based analytical hierarchy process (MC-AHP) approach have been considered using the integration of remote sensing and GIS techniques. The analysis shows future LULC scenario in the years 2025, 2030, and 2040 along with the FPLR pattern. Based on the results of the future LULCC and FPLR scenarios, we have provided suggestions for the development in the close proximity of the fault lines for the future strong magnitude earthquakes. Our results suggest a better and safe planning approach in the Belt and Road Corridor (BRC) of China to control future Silk-Road Disaster, which will also be useful to urban planners for urban development in a safe and sustainable manner.

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Land Use and Land Cover Change Modeling and Future Potential Landscape Risk Assessment Using Markov-CA Model and Analytical Hierarchy Process

Urbanization leads to the occupation of green areas, directly contributing to a high level of fragmentation of urban green spaces, which, in turn, results in numerous socioeconomic and environmental problems. Consequently, an understanding of the relationships between patterns of urban green spaces and urbanization processes is essential. Although previous quantitative studies have examined this relationship, they have not included an exploration of spatial heterogeneities in the effects of urbanization on the spatial patterns of urban green areas. We therefore applied a spatiotemporal perspective to examine the above relationship, while considering the wider planning context. First, we quantified the extent of fragmentation of urban green spaces using landscape metrics comprising the largest patch index (LPI) and landscape shape index (LSI). Next, using the calculated spatial metrics and nighttime light data (NTL) for central Beijing for the period 1992–2016, we applied a geographically weighted regression model to assess variations in the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on the fragmentation of urban green spaces. The results showed that urbanization initially occurred mainly in the northern parts of Beijing, whereas urbanization of southern urban fringe areas occurred after 2008. The reduction in green spaces along with increasing fragmentation and complex spatial patterns are indicative of issues relating to Beijing’s rapid urbanization and planning policies. This study contributes to an understanding of how urbanization influences fragmentation of urban green spaces and offers insights for the planning of urban green spaces from the perspective of promoting sustainability.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/4/333/pdf

Urban Green Space Fragmentation and Urbanization: A Spatiotemporal Perspective

Understanding of the Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change, its transitions and Landscape risk (LR) evaluation in earthquake-affected areas is important for planning and urban sustainability. In the present study, we have considered Dujiangyan City and its Environs (DCEN), a seismic-prone area close to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0 Mw) during 2007–2018. Five different multi-temporal data sets for the years 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were considered for LULC mapping, followed by the maximum likelihood supervised classification technique. The individual LULC maps were further used in four time periods, i.e., 2007–2018, 2008–2018, 2010–2018, and 2015–2018, to evaluate the Land Use and Land Cover Transitions (LULCT) using combined remote sensing and GIS (Geographical Information System). Furthermore, multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) techniques were applied for LR mapping. The results of the LULC change data indicate that built-up, agricultural area, and forest cover are the prime categories that had been changed by the natural and anthropogenic activities. LULCT, along with multi-parameters, are suggested to avoid development in fault-existing areas that are seismically vulnerable for future landscape planning in a sustainable manner.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes, and Environment and Risk Evaluation of Dujiangyan City (SW China) Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

The spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors analysis of regional land use are the core scientific problems in the research of ecological environment and human sustainable development. It is also an important basis for the government to formulate land management policy. Based on the land use maps of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, this article analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of land use change in Tianjin, and determined the relative importance of each driving factor of land use change. The main features of land use change were the continuous expansion of built-up land (1386.89 km2/74.73% gains) and the decrease of arable land area (1181.60 km2/16.84% losses). The area and intensity of land use change were not completely consistent, such as Wuqing and Jixian. The hotspots of land use change mainly were located in the main urban region in Tianjin, around the suburban settlements and Binhai New Area. The landscape pattern in the research region has also changed significantly. The Largest patch index (LPI) and largest shape index (LSI) of arable land showed an increasing trend, and the degree of landscape fragmentation of arable land was deepened. The trend of landscape index of built-up land was similar to that of arable land, but the change intensity was more severe. In addition, the article also used the stepwise regression analysis in the multiple regression to analyze the relative importance of various driving factors, indicating that the driving factors of the built-up land and arable land change were obviously different in different periods. Government policies also have a significant impact on land use change, such as establishing the Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA).

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Use Change and Its Driving Force Based on GIS and Landscape Analysis Techniques in Tianjin during 2000–2015

We explored the process of urbanization in a mountainous area to seek a sustainable urbanization strategy. Previous urbanization research has mainly focused on flat terrain and coastal areas, and urbanization in mountainous areas remains poorly understood. This study integrated geographic information systems, remote sensing, and statistical analysis to quantify landscape patterns dynamics in response to urbanization, with a case study of Mentougou District in Beijing, China from 1985 to 2014. We found that the total built-up area increased along with the population and economic indicators. The built-up area increased by one-third over the study period, with 73.38% of the increase from converted cropland and 12.22% from converted orchard. The urban expansion area was concentrated in the plain sub-region (<200 m elevation, comprising 68.85% of the expansion area). The landscape patterns varied over this period. For the whole region, the low mountain sub-region and the high mountain sub-region, landscape patterns gradually became more heterogeneous and fragmented, but they showed the opposite trend in the plain sub-region. None of the urbanization indicators (population, economic and built-up land area) were significantly correlated with landscape metrics for the whole region, but they were significantly correlated in the plain sub-region. The impacts of urbanization on landscape patterns were mainly focused on the plain sub-region, and the effects in the low mountain and high mountain sub-regions were weak. Future urban development in mountainous areas should focus on the protection of cropland and local industries as part of a sustainable development strategy for the whole region.

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/11/1190/pdf

Yue Cao

Papers

Effects of Urbanization on Landscape Patterns in a Mountainous Area: A Case Study in the Mentougou District, Beijing, China