Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

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Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests

This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

https://escholarship.org/content/qt9wr7k2j9/qt9wr7k2j9.pdf?t=q7cbir

Terrain attributes and forage productivity predict catchment-scale soil organic carbon stocks

The influence of burn severity on post-fire vegetation recovery and albedo change during early succession in North American boreal forests

Harmful algal blooms of cyanobacteria are increasing in magnitude and frequency globally, degrading inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems and adversely affecting public health. Efforts to understand the structure and natural variability of these blooms range from point sampling methods to a wide array of remote sensing tools. This study aims to provide a comprehensive view of cyanobacterial blooms in Clear Lake, California – a shallow, polymictic, naturally eutrophic lake with a long record of episodic cyanobacteria blooms. To understand the spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms, we evaluated a satellite remote sensing tool for estimating coarse cyanobacteria distribution with coincident, in situ measurements at varying scales and resolutions. The Cyanobacteria Index (CI) remote sensing algorithm was used to estimate cyanobacterial abundance in the top portion of the water column from data acquired from the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) sensor on the Sentinel-3a satellite. We collected hyperspectral data from a handheld spectroradiometer; discrete one-meter integrated surface samples for chlorophyll-a and phycocyanin; multispectral imagery from small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) flights (~12 cm resolution); Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) measurements of chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and colored dissolved organic matter (~10 cm horizontal spacing, 1 m below the water surface); and meteorological forcing and lake temperature data to provide context to our cyanobacteria measurements. A semivariogram analysis of the high resolution AUV and sUAS data found the Critical Scale of Variability for cyanobacterial blooms to range from 70-175 m, which is finer than what is resolvable by the satellite data. We thus observed high spatial variability within each 300 m satellite pixel. Finally, we used the field spectroscopy data to evaluate the accuracy of both the original and revised CI algorithm. We found the revised CI algorithm was not effective in estimating cyanobacterial abundance for our study site. Satellite-based remote sensing tools are vital to researchers and water managers as they provide consistent, high-coverage data at a low cost and sampling effort. The findings of this research support continued development and refinement of remote sensing tools, which are essential for satellite monitoring of harmful algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs.

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Quantifying Scales of Spatial Variability of Cyanobacteria in a Large, Eutrophic Lake Using Multiplatform Remote Sensing Tools

Beyond green environments: Multi-scale difference in human exposure to greenspace in China.

The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) provides remotely-sensed estimates of evapotranspiration at 70 m spatial resolution every 1–5 days, sampling across the diurnal cycle. This study, in partnership with an operational water management organization, the Eastern Municipal Water District (EMWD) in Southern California, was conducted to evaluate estimates of evapotranspiration under ideal conditions where water is not limited. EMWD regularly uses a ground-based network of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS); yet, there are gaps in spatial coverage and questions of spatial representativeness and consistency. Space-based potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates, such as those from ECOSTRESS, provide consistent spatial coverage. We compared ECOSTRESS ETo (estimated from PET) to CIMIS ETo at five CIMIS sites in Riverside County, California from July 2018–June 2020. We found strong correlations between CIMIS ETo and ECOSTRESS ETo across all five sites (R2 = 0.89, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.11 mm hr−1). Both CIMIS and ECOSTRESS ETo captured similar seasonal patterns through the study period as well as diurnal variability. There were site-specific differences in the relationship between ECOSTRESS AND CIMIS, in part due to spatial heterogeneity around the station site. Consequently, careful examination of landscapes surrounding CIMIS sites must be considered in future comparisons. These results indicate that ECOSTRESS successfully retrieves PET that is comparable to ground-based reference ET, highlighting the potential for providing observation-driven guidance for irrigation management across spatial scales.

Yufang Jin

Papers

Terrain attributes and forage productivity predict catchment-scale soil organic carbon stocks

The influence of burn severity on post-fire vegetation recovery and albedo change during early succession in North American boreal forests

Quantifying Scales of Spatial Variability of Cyanobacteria in a Large, Eutrophic Lake Using Multiplatform Remote Sensing Tools

Beyond green environments: Multi-scale difference in human exposure to greenspace in China.

ECOSTRESS and CIMIS: A Comparison of Potential and Reference Evapotranspiration in Riverside County, California