In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals’ high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.

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A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

This study proposed and tested a multistage model of household response to three hazards-flood, hurricane, and toxic chemical release-in Harris County Texas The model, which extends Lindell and Perry's (1992, 2004) Protective Action Decision Model, proposed a basic causal chain from hazard proximity through hazard experience and perceived personal risk to expectations of continued residence in the home and adoption of household hazard adjustments Data from 321 households generally supported the model, but the mediating effects of hazard experience and perceived personal risk were partial rather than complete In addition, the data suggested that four demographic variables-gender, age, income, and ethnicity-affect the basic causal chain at different points

Households' perceived personal risk and responses in a multihazard environment.

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk : A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Results of past research suggest that affect plays an important role in risk perception. Because affect may also increase the availability of risks, affect and availability are closely related concepts. Three studies tested the hypothesis that evoking negative affect (fear), either through past experience or through experimental manipulation, results in greater perceived risk. The present research focused on perception of flooding risk. Study 1 and Study 2 showed that participants who received risk information concerning a longer time period (e.g., 30 years) perceived more danger compared with participants who received risk information for one year. Study 2 showed that the interpretation of risk information was influenced by participants' own experiences with flooding. In Study 3, affect was experimentally manipulated. After looking at photographs depicting houses in a flooded region, participants perceived greater risk compared with participants in a control group. Taken together, the results of these three studies suggest that affect is important for successful risk communication. Results of the present research are in line with the affect heuristic proposed by Slovic and colleagues.

The role of the affect and availability heuristics in risk communication.

Experts on the risk of flooding have developed very detailed maps for different parts of Switzerland that indicate the types of damage possible and the probabilities of adverse events. Four categories of risk severity are defined on the maps, ranging from high risk to no risk. Based on these existing maps, we selected respondents for a mail survey, some from areas high in risk and others from low-risk regions. Respondents answered several questions related to flood risk perception and preparedness. Survey results showed that respondents' risk perceptions were correlated with the experts' risk assessments. Respondents who lived in areas designated "no risk" by the experts had lower perceptions of risk than respondents who lived in areas with higher levels of designated risk. With regard to concrete prevention behavior, no differences between people living in different risk areas were observed. Survey results further suggest that many inhabitants do not know that flooding maps exist for their region. Results suggest that in some regions people overestimate the risks associated with flooding. Consequently, some people are more afraid of flooding than is justified by the facts. Some people show prevention behavior that most likely is superfluous. However, in other regions people underestimate the risks associated with flooding. These people do not show prevention behavior, and they are not well prepared for an adverse event. Furthermore, results suggest that respondents' experiences with flooding are positively related to their perceptions of flood risk. Findings of the present study are in line with the availability heuristic.

Flooding risks: a comparison of lay people's perceptions and expert's assessments in Switzerland.

In 1999 a research program was started with the goal of finding the main reasons that influence people's decisions to insure themselves against losses caused by flood. In a field study a questionnaire that measured perception of the flood risk and motives for insuring or not insuring against the consequences of this disaster was used. The data were collected on a group of 66 households that were hit by flood in 1997. As expected, the results showed that the insurance decisions were related to a few basic psychological factors of flood-risk perception. The most important finding was that people who reported greater fear while thinking about flood bought insurance more often after the flood had occurred than people who did not report fear. Another factor of flood-risk perception, knowledge about flood, was not related to any aspect of insurance decisions. The practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Zbigniew Piskorz

Papers

Fear or money? Decisions on insuring oneself against flood