Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross-correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the "Great Moderation"?

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Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the US economy. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions: sticky nominal price and wage setting, habit formation in consumption, investment adjustment costs, variable capital utilisation and fixed costs in production. It also contains many types of shocks including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks. Using Bayesian estimation techniques, the relative importance of the various frictions and shocks in explaining the US business cycle are empirically investigated. We also show that this model is able to outperform standard VAR and BVAR models in out-of-sample prediction.

/pdf/shocks-and-frictions-in-us-business-cycles-a-bayesian-dsge-2gcs6kvruw.pdf

Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: A Bayesian DSGE approach

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilization. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macroeconomic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment, and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labor supply, investment, preference, cost-push, and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle e uctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, we also analyze the output (real interest rate) gap, dee ned as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate). (JEL: E4, E5)

/pdf/an-estimated-dynamic-stochastic-general-equilibrium-model-of-3l2zkahrlo.pdf

An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macro-economic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, the paper also analyses the output (real interest rate) gap, defined as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate).

An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35

Natural-rate models suggest that the systematic parts of monetary policy will not have important consequences for the business cycle. Nevertheless, we often observe high and variable rates of monetary growth, and a tendency for monetary authorities to pursue countercyclical policies. This behavior is shown to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium in a discretionary environment where the policymaker pursues a "reasonable" objective, but where precommitments on monetary growth are precluded. At each point in time, the policymaker optimizes subject to given inflationary expectations, which determine a Phillips Curve-type tradeoff between monetary growth/inflation and unemployment. Inflationary expectations are formed with the knowledge that policymakers will be in this situation. Accordingly, equilibrium excludes systematic deviations between actual and expected inflation, which means that the equilibrium unemployment rate ends up independent of "policy" in our model. However, the equilibrium rates of monetary growth/inflation depend on various parameters, including the slope of the Phillips Curve, the costs attached to unemployment versus inflation, and the level of the natural unemployment rate. The monetary authority determines an average inflation rate that is "excessive," and also tends to behave countercyclically. Outcomes are shown to improve if a costlessly operating rule is implemented in order to precomrnit future policy choices in the appropriate manner. The value of these precommitments -- that is, of long-term agreements between the government and the private sector -- underlies the argument for rules over discretion. Discretion is the sub-set of rules that provides no guarantees about the government's future behavior.

A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model

The present paper adopts the Keynesian view that direct shocks to investment are important for business fluctuations, but incorporates them in a neo-classical framework where the rate of capital ut ...

/pdf/investment-capacity-utilization-and-the-real-business-cycle-cwzfvak30v.pdf

Investment, Capacity Utilization and the Real Business Cycle

The role that investment-specific technological change played in generating postwar US growth is investigated here. The premise is that the introduction of new, more efficient capital goods is an important source of productivity change, and an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional Hicks-neutral form of technological progress. The balanced-growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to US National Income and Product Account data. The quantitative analysis suggests that investment-specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth.

Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change

an attempt is made to disentangle its effects from the more traditional Hicksneutral form of technological progress. The balanced growth path for the model is characterized and calibrated to U.S. National Income and Product Account (NIPA) data. The quantitative analysis suggests that investment-specific technological change accounts for the major part of growth. (JEL E13, 030, 041, 047)

/pdf/long-run-implications-of-investment-specific-technological-2rq2yjk7a3.pdf

http://www.jeremygreenwood.net/papers/ghk00.pdf

The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle

A Beckerian model of household production is developed to study the cyclical allocation of capital and time between market and home activities. The adopted framework treats the business and household sectors symmetrically. In the market, labor interacts with business capital to produce market goods and services, and likewise at home the remaining time (leisure) is combined with household capital to produce home goods and services. The model presented is parameterized and simulated to see whether it can rationalize the observed allocation of capital and time, as well as other stylized facts, for the postwar U.S. economy.

/pdf/the-allocation-of-capital-and-time-over-the-business-cycle-2tygn95fgk.pdf

Zvi Hercowitz

Papers

Investment, Capacity Utilization and the Real Business Cycle

Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change

Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change

The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle

The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle