Showing papers in "Frontiers of Economics in China in 2010"
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper found that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals, and that house price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market.
Abstract: Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.
50 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper used a logarithm production model to prove the existence of the positive externality in the transportation and then constructed a spatial econometric model to estimate this model.
Abstract: This paper tests the external spillover effects of the transportation on China’s economic growth from the theoretical and the empirical perspectives. Based on a logarithm production model, this study first proves the existence of the positive externality in the transportation. After that, the authors collect the data of the 28 provinces in China from 1985 to 2006, and use a relatively advanced spatial econometric method to test the positive externality. After constructing a spatial econometric model, the authors use the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method to estimate this model. According to the theoretical model and the empirical results, this article reaches the following conclusion: (1) The positive externalities in the transportation do exist; (2) From 1985 to 2006, the transportation contributed 24.8 billion yuan to China’s GDP every year: in this 24.8 billion yuan, 19.6 billion comes from the direct contribution and the rest 5.2 billion comes from the external spillover effects; (3) The summation of the direct contribution and the external spillover effects to the economic growth is on average 13.8% every year.
26 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a framework was constructed to analyze the relationship between national innovation investments, international knowledge spillover due to FDI and regional technological progress, and the corresponding policy recommendations for China's FDI policy and regional economic development.
Abstract: This article has constructed a framework to analyze the relationship between national innovation investments, international knowledge spillover due to FDI and regional technological progress. We use the panel data sample in 1992–2006 from China’s 29 provinces (municipalities or autonomous regions) to test the impact of China’s regional RD for the structure and quality of China’s current FDI, the knowledge spillover effects from FDI, especially through the FDI enterprises’ manufacturing activities, are not obvious; the local gains in its technology development from FDI depends on its economic and technological level. Based on the above conclusions we give the corresponding policy recommendations for China’s FDI policy and regional economic development.
22 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical analysis based on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model and using 95 and 42 countries sample data in year of 2005, is presented, which shows that according to the estimated results, environmental regulations do not change the comparative advantages of five types of pollutionintensive goods.
Abstract: According to “Pollution Haven Effect”, in order to circumvent stringent environment standards, polluting industries in developed countries will be chosen to locate into developing countries; another way is that developed countries increase imports of pollution-intensive products instead of producing by their own, both of which can contribute to the changes of comparative advantages in the past 30 years. Since 1990s, many scholars have paid special attention on whether environmental regulations affect the trade patterns or not, but the conclusions are ambiguous. This paper, based on the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) model and using 95 and 42 countries sample data in year of 2005, is an empirical analysis which shows that: (1) according to the estimated results based on the “environmental governance” index calculated by CIESIN, environmental regulations do not change the comparative advantages of five types of pollutionintensive goods; (2) On the other hand, when the per capita income is considered as an endogenous indicator of environmental regulation, environmental regulation will significantly promote the comparative advantages in chemical products, iron and steel products and paper products, though environmental regulations do not take any influence on non-metallic minerals products and non-ferrous metals products. I think that appropriate level of environmental regulation can promote a comparative advantage in pollution-intensive goods.
21 citations
TL;DR: By introducing the shocks from individual activities into the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (HNKPC), this paper investigated the inflation dynamics and the effect of excess liquidity in China, and some soundly conclusions can be drawn.
Abstract: By introducing the shocks from individual activities into the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve (HNKPC), we investigate the inflation dynamics and the effect of excess liquidity in China. According to the estimation result, some soundly conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the empirical results indicate that the HNKPC is consistent with the nature of inflation dynamics in China, which posits the inflation dynamics as the combination of backward looking adaptive expectations and forward looking rational expectations. Moreover, defining excess liquidity by M2, the elasticity of inflation defined by CPI to excess liquidity is approximately unit, which reveals that the quasi-money is the main force behind inflation. The nature of inflation expectation and the effect of excess liquidity all provide the evidences that tight monetary policy is effective to curbing inflation in China.
19 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors focus on two elements accounting for economic development, namely, equipment investment and productive infrastructure, and analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. But they do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment.
Abstract: There is agreement in the literature on economic growth concerning the transitory effects of capital accumulation on the process of economic development. However, controversy arises if this effect is permanent. In this sense, the key point is the embodied technological progress and whether supply factors predominate among the determinants of capital accumulation. Only in this case should expect long-run effects of capital accumulation on economic growth. Inspired by this idea, I focus the study on two elements accounting for economic development—equipment investment and productive infrastructure and I also analyze the type of the empirical relationship that exists between them. The results indicate that equipment investment and infrastructures have played a significant role in accounting for long-run growth in China. However, I do not find empirical evidence supporting any relationship between the two types of investment. In addition, I find that foreign trade has stimulated output and equipment investment in the long run. Finally, it is found that innovation activities encourage equipment investment in the long run.
16 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the dynamics of income distribution in Chinese cities using panel data of Chinese urban residents and found that the national across-city distribution of per capita GDP exhibits an apparent unique-peak distribution in 1995 and an emerging multiple-peak one in 2004.
Abstract: Using a 1995–2004 panel data of Chinese urban residents, we investigate the dynamics of income distribution in cities. According to Kernel estimates of the relative income distribution of Chinese cities, we find that: (1) the national across-city distribution of per capita GDP exhibits an apparent unique-peak distribution in 1995 and an “emerging multiple-peak” one in 2004; (2) for prefecture-level cities, income distribution has evolved to an “apparent multiple-peak” distribution from a unique-peak one; (3) the income distribution of county-level cities maintains a unique-peak curve; (4) most of the income dynamics of urban residents originates from prefecture-and-higher-level cities. We sample three representative provinces and study the urban income dynamics respectively. The analysis suggests that within a single province, urban income distribution evolves from unique-peak to twin-peak curve; while among provinces, income convergence is evident for urban residents. In addition, we measure the incidence of poverty in cities based on our income dynamics analysis, and find that the ratios of people living below absolute poverty line have been decreasing at cities of all levels.
14 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a crisis early warning system based on the KLR model using the recently data is reviewed, and some amendments based on actual economic environment are made to the model, which shows an improved performance.
Abstract: The financial crisis early-warning models were improved gradually with the continued regional financial crises that provided a wealth of empirical data by the end of last century. However, none of the crisis early-warning models correctly predicted the global financial crisis in 2008. Previous researches show the KLR model have better performance, so we reviewed the crisis early-warning system based on the KLR model using the recently data. This paper first tested the KLR model, and made some amendments based on the actual economic environment. Then we re-test the modified model, which show an improved performance. At last, the future crisis probabilities of some selected countries are predicted by using the amendatory model.
13 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the impact of VAT reform on China firms' fixed asset investment, employment behavior, innovative activities, and productivity, and furthermore discussed the impact firm behavior on industrial structural upgrade and employment with a firm-level panel data of large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China.
Abstract: China reformed value-added tax (VAT) by removing investment from the tax base in northeastern provinces in 2004, which is a “natural experiment” of its tax system. Using difference-in-differences method, this paper for the first time investigates the impact of VAT reform on China firms’ fixed asset investment, employment behavior, innovative activities, and productivity, and furthermore discusses the impact of firm behavior on industrial structural upgrade and employment with a firm-level panel data of large and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in China. We find that VAT reform significantly promotes firms’ fixed asset investment, and increases firms’ capital-labor ratio and productivity; while enhancement of firms’ productivity is mainly achieved by means of substituting labor with capital, rather than independent technology innovation; meanwhile, VAT reform distinctly decreases employment. Our findings have essential policy implications on the extension of VAT reform in the entire China.
13 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors extended the traditional life cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors, and estimated the house price dynamics with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing.
Abstract: To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.
13 citations
TL;DR: This article used Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual gross provincial product (GPP) and government spending in China's 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006, finding that GPP was highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.
Abstract: This paper uses Bi-Directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G multipliers for China’s 31 provinces between 1996 and 2006 (GPP = Gross Provincial Product and G = government spending in the province). In order to account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that ∂GPP/∂G and %∂GPP/%∂G were highest in 1996 while China was drastically cutting government spending to curb inflation, were lowest in 1997 during the Asian Financial Crisis, slowly rose between 1998 and 2004, and then declined some in 2005 and 2006 when the Chinese yuan was slowly appreciating.
TL;DR: In this article, the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China's markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.
Abstract: The strenuous fluctuation in global asset price in recent years has had a profound impact on the economic and social development of every country. An empirical analysis indicates that asset prices (the stock price index and real estate prices) are important endogenous variables affecting the interest rate reaction function of central bank monetary policy. With expected inflation as a given, each one percentage point rise in output gap will cause a 0.79 percentage point reduction in interest rates by the central bank and each one percentage point rise in real estate price will result in a 2.2 percentage point rise in interest rates. The stock price index does have an influence on the trends in monetary policy, but it is less salient than the impact of housing prices. We also show that monetary policy that employs asset price as an endogenous variable increases the central bank’s control in seeking to attain its objectives. Therefore we suggest that the central bank should make asset price fluctuation an endogenous variable and incorporate it into its forward-looking interest rate rule, in order to facilitate the healthy development of China’s markets for real estate, stocks and derivatives, energy and bulk commodities and maintain rapid, smooth, sustainable and harmonious economic development.
TL;DR: Li et al. as mentioned in this paper analyzed the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries and showed that the industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors.
Abstract: Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.
TL;DR: The authors examined the impact of the change in ownership structure on earnings distribution in urban China and found that developing non-state-owned enterprises (nonSOEs) or privatization of SOEs enlarge earnings inequality, but the difference in earnings level between the two sectors is small.
Abstract: Along with advances in urban state-owned enterprise reform, fast growth of private sector and changes in the wage structure, earnings inequality in urban China has been increasing. Using data from the 1988 and 2007 waves of the urban household survey conducted by China Household Income Project, this paper attempts to examine the impact of the change in ownership structure on earnings distribution in urban China. We find that developing non-state-owned enterprises (nonSOEs) or privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) enlarge earnings inequality, but the difference in earnings level between the two sectors is small. Although workers in SOEs receive higher income than in nonSOEs, the difference is more caused by endowment difference rather than coefficient differences. Introducing market power to wage determination system is more influential to the rising earnings inequality which leads more rewards on working experience and educational attainment.
TL;DR: In this paper, the degree of the exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices in China with both the ratio of China imports to GDP and domestic prices of China's main trade partners going up was studied.
Abstract: This paper studies the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices in China with both the ratio of China’s imports to GDP and domestic prices of China’s main trade partners going up. Statistic results show that the degree of ERPT is somehow less than the degree of marginal cost plus mark-up pass-through of exporters, and econometric analyses reach the same conclusion. Besides, the ERPT to import prices is found to be high while the ERPT to CPI is low owing to some factors that obstruct the import prices pass-through channel to domestic CPI. But this situation has been changing significantly since August 2005. Thus, a more flexible exchange rate system is needed for China to absorb the price shock from aboard efficiently.
TL;DR: Wang et al. as mentioned in this paper designed a theoretical model of excess per-capita income growth and brought forward such indices as excess percapita net income, per capita base consumption and decreasing factor as well as the corresponding measurement methods.
Abstract: This paper designs a theoretical model of excess per-capita income growth and brings forward such indices as excess per-capita income, per-capita base consumption and decreasing factor as well as the corresponding measurement methods. It studies from a brand new aspect the disparity between the economic growth in urban sector and rural sector of China in the past 30 years after the reform and opening-up, together with the disparity between the effects of such growth on consumption. The research results show that: At present the problem of the duality of urban and rural sector of China is still serious; the impaired amount of economic growth in urban sector is larger than that in rural sector while the impairing strength in rural sector is higher than that in urban sector; and it is vital to increase the excess per-capita investment in rural sector in order to effectively strengthen consumption related policies. Therefore, promoting urbanization but reasonably controlling the urbanization progress while strengthening the infrastructure construction in rural areas would be the efficient approach to reduce the impairing strength over the economic growth, to build up consumption market, to improve the duality of economy and to realize sustainable development.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors adopt the analytical framework of institutional economics to clearly demonstrate the whole logic process of institutional transition, then from the international comparative perspective, generalize some basic experiences in China's rural reform and the lessons for developing and transitional countries.
Abstract: Both from history and logic, the rural reform is the starting point for China’s overall economic reform. The gradualism, inherent logical evolution and interest conflict of reform in China all have their origins in rural reform. The thirty-year’s rural reform can be viewed as the adjustment of urban-rural relations by different period. This study adopts the analytical framework of institutional economics to clearly demonstrate the whole logic process of institutional transition, then from the international comparative perspective, generalizes some basic experiences in China’s rural reform and the lessons for developing and transitional countries. On the basis of judging different stages of economic development, this paper also sums up the new challenges faced by rural reform and discusses its prospects for the next reform.
TL;DR: In this article, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China's economy is estimated, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world's key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government.
Abstract: This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China’s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982–1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate” and apply it to RMB, finding that real effective exchange rate of RMB need to be appreciated about 20% between 2008 and 2010, and the appreciation range of bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world’s key currencies depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision makers need to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level and establish RMB “Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate.” Meanwhile, policymakers should implement a potential objective interval system of exchange rate appreciation. The appreciation range of bilateral exchange rate of RMB against USD from 2008 to 2010 may be set between 6% to 10%.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the economic and noneconomic determinants of growth disparity among Chinese villages between 1990 and 2002 and found a significant positive effect of the initial level of human capital, as well as the initial condition of physical infrastructure.
Abstract: This paper examines the economic and noneconomic determinants of growth disparity among Chinese villages between 1990 and 2002. By estimating a growth equation, first, we confirm a significant positive effect of the initial level of human capital, as well as the initial condition of physical infrastructure. Second, social capital measured by the degree of stable social relations at the village level is also a significant growth-promoting factor. The policy implications of our findings are that public policy promoting social stability in rural areas should be strengthened, as well as increasing financial support for rural education and infrastructure construction, especially in lower income regions.
TL;DR: Based on panel data of 282 prefectures in China from 1999 to 2004, this article explored the relationship between market potential, employment density and per capita GDP by using a dynamic panel data approach.
Abstract: Based on panel data of 282 prefectures in China from 1999 to 2004; we explore the relationship between market potential, employment density and per capita GDP by using a dynamic panel data approach. It is found that the externalities arising from market potential and employment density have a positive and significant effect on local income. Moreover, both absolute and standardized elasticity of market potential externalities are pronounced, which suggests that market potential has a greater impact on regional disparity.
TL;DR: In this article, a stochastic model was developed to study the optimal choice of RMB exchange rate regime based on two objectives, namely the exchange rate stabilization and price stabilization.
Abstract: Under the Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch (M-F-D) framework, the paper develops a stochastic model to study the optimal choice of RMB exchange rate regime based on two objectives, namely the exchange rate stabilization and price stabilization. The paper finds that different policy objectives will lead to different optimal choices of RMB exchange-rate regime. If the central bank aims to stabilize the price level, the optimal choice would be a certain type of intermediate regime, or the optimal choice would be a fixed one if it aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate. Based on the model, the paper empirically estimates China’s open economy parameters and uses them to estimate the optimal flexibility of RMB exchange rate regime. The paper points out that China should allow more exchange rate changes to absorb its foreign exchange market pressure in order to stabilize the general price level, which indicates that China should move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a reply to Steedman's critique of Marx's labor theory of value, concluding that the relationship between the standard condition of production and value is not deterministic and one-directional character.
Abstract: This article aims to offer a reply to Steedman’s critique of Marx’s labor theory of value. Although this critique having been there for about three decades, the anti-critiques from Marxists are up to date flawed with fatal limitation, losing sight of an important dimension of labor theory of value, i.e., without taking it as a theoretical tool of understanding the uncertainty rooted in capitalist mode of production. The first part of this article reviews the controversy initiated by Steedman. Part 2 discusses Marx’s dual theory of market value and Rubin’s interpretation. Our view is that, if Rubin’s interpretation is accepted, a refutation of Steedman’s critique towards Marx will be impossible. Part 3 of this article explores the possible reconstruction of market value in the perspective of the dynamics in the pivoting of market value. We concludes that, the relationship between the standard condition of production and value is not, as argued by Steedman, of deterministic and one-directional character. For Marx, labor theory of value is applied to analyze the uncertain relation between the means and the end, the condition and the result of capitalist production. Meanwhile, another reply is attempted towards the negative comment on labor theory of value made by contemporary evolutionary economist such as Hodgson. In our view, Marx’s labor theory of value is not irrelevant as claimed by Hodgson to the main topics of evolutionary economics such as variety and “natural selection.” It is through labor theory of value that Marx explains the co-evolution of technology and economy.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors established an equilibrium model of intra-product specialization dominated by MNCs, and did some empirical tests on the growth in trade volume in China by using the variables including technological conditions of trade, similarity of economies, policy conditions, disintegration of production and level of per capita capital equipment.
Abstract: The gravity equation is usually employed by researchers in the field of international trade to explain the growth of a country’s imports and exports volume, especially the manufactured goods. But in China, variables in the model, such as exchange rate, tariff, transportation cost, and spatial distance etc., are not sufficient to explain the riddle of China’s growth in trade volume. In fact, this growth in China’s trade volume is owing to the disintegration of production in the process of economic globalization, to the multinational corporations’ (MNC) vertical outsourcing of their manufacturing processes and procedures, and to the timely readjustment of Chinese enterprises on their strategies of participating in the international intra-product specialization. In this paper we establish an equilibrium model of intra-product specialization dominated by MNCs, and do some empirical tests on the growth in trade volume in China by using the variables including technological conditions of trade, similarity of economies, policy conditions of trade, disintegration of production and level of per capita capital equipment. The empirical results support our basic judgments.
TL;DR: This paper investigated the potential channels through which R&D may influence TFP growth using industry-level panel data of China's large and medium-sized industrial enterprises over the period of 2000-2007.
Abstract: This paper investigates the potential channels through which R&D may influence TFP growth using industry-level panel data of China’s large and medium-sized industrial enterprises over the period of 2000–2007. Comparing with existing literature, we provide a closer look of the relationship between R&D and TFP growth by decomposing TFP growth into efficiency change and technical change components using Malmquist productivity index and distinguishing between upstream R&D spillovers and downstream R&D spillovers. We find TFP grow slightly during 2000–2007, and R&D investment indeed serves as an engine of productivity growth just as endogenous growth theories argued, which is largely because R&D accelerates technical progress even it also results in enlarging technical inefficiency. However, we find a robust negative effect of downstream R&D spillovers on TFP growth, the effects of upstream is positive but not statistically significant. In addition, we do not find the positive effects of human capital on TFP as endogenous growth theories indicated, but find human capital severs as “assimilation device” for R&D spillovers both in promoting TFP growth and increasing technical efficiency even the effects on technical progress is adverse.
TL;DR: In this paper, a positive analysis on the efficiency of Taylor-type rules in China through historical analysis, policy reaction function approach and co-integration technology of time series analysis is presented.
Abstract: The correlation and controllability of money supply as the intermediate object of monetary policy is gradually weakening, the argument that interest rate substitutes the money supply for the alternative object is hotly discussed. According to the Taylor rule and its extensions, this paper has a positive analysis on the efficiency of Taylor-type rules in China through historical analysis, policy reaction function approach and co-integration technology of time series analysis. This paper draws a conclusion that Taylor rule is unstable in China, and less correlation can be found between interest rate and the output gap, and the central bank focus on the inflation target rather than economic growth. Therefore, the central bank should abide by the simple rule of inflation targeting.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors presented a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and applied it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes.
Abstract: As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a monetary union of Macao with Hong Kong as the 2nd best choice of reform by introducing what they termed the SAR dollar, based on trade competitiveness, business relations, real welfare, monetary stability, and genuine development.
Abstract: The prolonged RMB appreciation affects Macao deeply and requires a major monetary reform without further delay. What we propose for Macao reform as an optimal choice includes shifting its monetary anchor to the strong RMB, revaluing its domestic currency to the original level, and setting up a sovereign wealth fund for autonomous growth. This proposal is based on Macao’s economic fundamentals such as trade competitiveness, business relations, real welfare, monetary stability, and genuine development. We also recommend a monetary union of Macao with Hong Kong as the 2nd-best choice of reform by introducing what we term the SAR dollar.
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China's macroeconomic fluctuation was assessed using a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregatedemand and aggregate-supply framework, using the quarterly data in the period of 1996Q1-2005Q4.
Abstract: The combination of a high growth rate and low information has been observed since the late 1990s in the Chinese economy. Should the fact be considered as a result of greatly improved supply capability or should the fact reflect the improvement in the government’s aggregate demand management? In this paper, we try to assess the role of aggregate demand and supply shocks in China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. We use a bivariate structural VAR model to investigate macroeconomic dynamics for China within the aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply framework, using the quarterly data in the period of 1996Q1–2005Q4. Our principal findings are following: (1) China’s high growth shall be associated more with greatly improved supply capability, especially after its WTO entrance. The expansionary aggregate demand policies may have limited effects to raise the growth rate in the post-1996 in China. This result suggests that we need a more pro-growth policy stance in order to maintain a high and stable growth. (2) The low inflation in that period is driven primarily by weak aggregate demand rather than supply factors.
TL;DR: This paper measured the equilibrium value of the RMB exchange rate through the macroeconomic balance approach in order to produce an assessment of the rMB in terms of periods of misalignment, and the empirical evidence indicates that although there turns out to be an increasing degree of RMB undervaluation in these measures from 2003 to 2004, the rmb is not substantially undervalued in both measures of real effective exchange rates and nominal bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar over the full period 1994-2004.
Abstract: Motivated by the global debate on the possible revaluation of the Chinese currency, the RMB, in recent years, the objective of this paper is to measure the equilibrium value of the RMB exchange rate through the macroeconomic balance approach in order to produce an assessment of the RMB in terms of periods of misalignment. The empirical evidence indicates that although there turns out to be an increasing degree of the RMB undervaluation in these measures from 2003 to 2004, the RMB is not substantially undervalued in both measures of real effective exchange rates and nominal bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar over the full period 1994–2004.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider whether the volatility of growth has had an impact on the trend rate of growth and find that the impact of volatility has been either positive or insignificant, but not negative.
Abstract: China’s path to emerging as the world’s second largest economy has not been a smooth one. This paper considers whether the volatility of growth has had an impact on the trend rate of growth. In doing so it aims to promote a better understanding of the determinants of China’s impressive trend rate of growth and also shed light on questions such as whether the trend rate of growth might have been even higher had the government and central bank been better able to offset volatility. Utilizing a GARCH-M model, the results of the empirical analysis suggest that the impact of volatility has been either positive or insignificant, but not negative.