Showing papers in "International Interactions in 2003"
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced persons, and they contend that individuals will tend to flee when the integrity of their person is threat.
Abstract: In this study we explore why persons flee their homes to become refugees and internally displaced persons. We contend that individuals will tend to flee when the integrity of their person is threat...
315 citations
TL;DR: This paper examined the role of domestic gender equality in predicting whether or not a state is more aggressive in international disputes and added to a growing body of feminist research in interni cation.
Abstract: I examine the role of domestic gender equality in predicting whether or not a state is more aggressive in international disputes. This research adds to a growing body of feminist research in intern...
101 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, power transition theory and the rise of China International Interactions: Vol 29, No 4, pp 269-271, and the Rise of China international Interactions.
Abstract: (2003) Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China International Interactions: Vol 29, No 4, pp 269-271
83 citations
TL;DR: The authors used power transition theory and leadership long cycle theory's challenger model to investigate ongoing deep structural changes that may affect fundamentally the prospects for twenty-first century Sino-American conflict.
Abstract: We use power transition theory and leadership long cycle theory's challenger model to investigate ongoing deep structural changes that may affect fundamentally the prospects for twenty-first century Sino-American conflict We specifically evaluate which of these structural theories most accurately maps the power transition process Whereas both theories offer important insights, the challenger model's focus on qualitative dimensions of structural change are more important to understanding the dynamics of a potential Sino-American power transition
56 citations
TL;DR: In this article, structural conditions for conflict and cooperation are identified. But, the structural conditions are not the preconditions for conflict, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.
Abstract: Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China's potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the preconditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.
50 citations
TL;DR: In this article, human rights have become an increasingly important issue as regimes are faced with increasing opportunity for trade between diverse regime types, while simultaneously, human rights issues have become increasingly important issues.
Abstract: As the global economy expands, there is an increasing opportunity for trade between diverse regime types. Simultaneously, human rights have become an increasingly important issue as regimes are fac...
42 citations
TL;DR: The preventive motive for war is a prominent part of many world politics arguments as discussed by the authors, however, there are no general statistical investigations of either its prevalence or bellicosity, and therefore no general conclusions about it can be drawn.
Abstract: The preventive motive for war is a prominent part of many world politics arguments. However, there are no general statistical investigations of either its prevalence or bellicosity. Consequently, no general conclusions about it can be drawn. In this article I operationally define the preventive motive, determine how often it is observed when wars are fought, and estimate its statistical impact on the probability of war. I find the preventive motive is frequently present in both types of dyads, but has no consistent statistical impact on the probability of war.
37 citations
TL;DR: Because an exchange-rate arrangement by nature involves more than one country and because it has various economic and political implications, it is affected inevitably by interstate political relativities as discussed by the authors, and therefore it is subject inevitably to interstate political debates.
Abstract: Because an exchange-rate arrangement by nature involves more than one country and because it has various economic and political implications, it is affected inevitably by interstate political relat...
33 citations
TL;DR: In the late 1970s, the economic size ratio between the former Soviet Union and China was 4 to 1 as mentioned in this paper, and by 2001, it was less than 1 to 4.
Abstract: In the late 1970s, the economic size ratio between the Soviet Union and China was 4 to 1 In 2001, the ratio between Russia and China was less than 1 to 4, or even less than 1 to 5, if one includes Hong Kong with China Although the collapse and dissolution of the Soviet Union contributed to this profound reversal of economic strength, domestic factors have been more important: decollectivization of Chinese agriculture versus an unwillingness to reform in Russia, the establishment of township village enterprises in China versus an extremely weak small and medium enterprise sector in Russia, economic openness and market-preserving federalism in China versus limited participation in globalization and confused federalism in Russia Although Russia was faster than China in privatizing state-owned enterprises, the preferential treatment of insiders and the weakness of the rule of law or functional substitutes for it neutralized this potential Russian advantage The strength and character of Chinese nationalism
21 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, structural conditions for conflict and cooperation are characterized. But, the structural conditions are not the pre-conditions for conflict, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.
Abstract: Generalizing the dynamics implied by power transition theory, we characterize the structural conditions that lead nations to initiate conflict or choose to integrate. The relationship between changes in relative power, hierarchical structures, and joint satisfaction are used to identify the structural conditions for conflict and cooperation. Empirical tests for the last two centuries confirm the strength and robustness of this characterization. In addition, long term assessments of Pax Britannica, the Cold War, and China’s potential challenge to the United States in this century are used to illustrate the precision of these findings. The fundamental implication is that structural conditions provide the pre-conditions for conflict and cooperation, but decision makers have leeway in advancing policies that eventually lead to either war or peace.
20 citations
TL;DR: In this article, crisis theory and ethnicity have been used to investigate the role of ethnic actors in the Arab-Israel conflict during the 1947-2000 period, finding that a rise in the scope of ethnic issues indicates a higher level of ethnic-relat...
Abstract: Interstate and ethnic conflicts have occurred throughout the twentieth century, but in the closing decade of the century ethnic strife has become salient. This study draws upon crisis theory and ethnicity to probe four research questions: (1) Do ethno-national actors create new issues over which states contend? (2) What is the role they play in crises? (3) Do issues and role change over time? (4) How do issues and roles affect core crisis attributes, namely gravity of threat, levels of violence, and the type of outcome in such confrontations? To explore these subjects, we define four concepts: ethnicity in crisis, ethnic-state crisis, Ethno-National Actors (ENAs), and ethnic attributes in crisis-issues and roles. We then outline a conceptual framework, spell out three postulates, and apply them to ICB data on 15 ethnic-state crises in the Arab-Israel conflict during the 1947-2000 period. Findings from these cases indicate: (1) A rise in the scope of ethnic issues, indicating a higher level of ethnic-relat...
TL;DR: One way in which leaders can satisfy domestic demands and pursue foreign policy goals simultaneously is by implementing policies that complement one another; i.e., the implementation of one policy influences the ease with which the other policy can be implemented as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: State leaders must often address domestic and foreign-policy concerns simultane-ously, though doing so can be complicated and risky. One way in which leaders can seek to satisfy domestic demands and pursue foreign policy goals simultaneously is by implementing policies that complement one another; i.e., the implementation of one policy influences the ease with which the other policy can be implemented. For instance, one manner in which leaders can placate domestic audiences is via distributive policies such as social insurance payments that provide economic security to individuals. By providing economic security guarantees, leaders may gain greater discretion over other policy areas, including foreign policy. However, while the social insurance effort may satisfy an audience and enable a leader to take foreign- policy action, especially high payment levels may indicate that a leader must devote an inordinate portion of his budget to domestic concerns, making foreign policy more difficult to implement. Thu...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors suggest a theory and test it on data for foreign policy beliefs and analogies used by Ukrainian and Russian elites and find that learning from vicarious success or imitation has a strong impact on beliefs following a major failure.
Abstract: Do states learn from other states' experiences in international relations? This is the expectation of prominent theories. But empirical research indicates that foreign policy learning is based overwhelmingly on direct experience. I argue that vicarious learning has not been uncovered because we have not known where to look: there has been no well-developed theory leading to falsifiable expectations. Here I suggest a theory and test it on data for foreign policy beliefs and analogies used by Ukrainian and Russian elites. The results indicate that learning from vicarious success, or imitation, has a strong impact on beliefs following a major failure. This has implications for foreign policy decision making and for concepts of interests and change in systemic theories of international relations.
TL;DR: The authors argue that historical conflict between states intensifies the preference of national selectorates for military victory and narrows the range of negotiated settlements that leaders might pursue while still maintaining domestic political support.
Abstract: This article sits at the intersection of the rivalry, war duration, and bargaining literatures, suggesting that histories of armed conflict between states increase war duration through their effects on the selectorate and the wartime bargaining process. I argue that the historical relationship between two states plays an integral role in the duration of future conflict. Specifically, historical conflict between states intensifies the preference of national selectorates for military victory and narrows the range of negotiated settlements that leaders might pursue while still maintaining domestic political support. I employ Bennett and Stam's (1996) ex ante data set and Crescenzi and Enterline's (2001) International Interaction Score to provide an empirical test of the ability to generalize appropriately coded historical interaction to the topic of war duration. Contradicting earlier studies, the results of this analysis show that a properly operationalized measure of rivalry has significant and positive ef...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors specify periods when hegemony is present or absent in the world system, and show that periods in which dominance is present are expected to exhibit openness for trade.
Abstract: Studies of hegemonic stability tend to specify periods when hegemony is present or absent in the world system. Periods in which hegemony is present are expected to exhibit openness for trade. Perio...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use simulated tournaments of a model of a dynamic, multi-player Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) to test whether relative gains concerns in fact, and show that relative gains are best understood as a heuristic device designed to guide states toward inter-temporal optimization of their absolute payoffs.
Abstract: The notion that in international interactions state-actors care not only about their own absolute gains, but also about the size of these gains relative to what other actors receive, is one of the pillars on which rests neorealists' pessimism about the prospects of cooperation in repeated Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) and, by extension, in international politics. Although there has been a lively debate over the impact of relative gains concerns on the prospects of cooperation, the prior question, whether states should in fact care about relative gains at all, has not been seriously confronted. This article questions the assumption that rational states should care about relative gains in PD. As the literature motivates them, relative gains concerns are best understood as a heuristic device designed to guide states toward inter-temporal optimization of their absolute payoffs. Using simulated tournaments of a model of a dynamic, multi-player PD, this article puts to the test whether relative gains concerns in fact...