Showing papers in "International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics in 2009"

Bank efficiency and share prices in China: empirical evidence from a three-stage banking model

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the efficiency of China banks and its share price performance. Our analysis consists of three parts. First, we calculate the annual share price returns of the banks for each year between 1997 and 2006. Then we employ the data envelopment analysis (DEA) window analysis method to estimate the efficiency of each bank. Finally, we regress the annual share price returns on the change in efficiency, while controlling for other bank specific traits. The empirical findings suggest that large Chinese banks have exhibited higher technical and pure technical efficiency levels compared to their small and medium sized bank counterparts, while the medium sized banks have exhibited higher scale efficiency. The relationship between Chinese banks' efficiency and share price performance suggest that bank efficiency estimates derived from the DEA window analysis method contributes significant information towards share price returns beyond that provided by financial information.

Chaos theory: forecasting the freight rate of an oil tanker

Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to predict the Aframax tanker charter rate index by using methods from non-linear analysis especially from chaos theory as is the method of false nearest neighbours (FNN). This is the result of the new emerging field of econo-physics which mainly consists of autonomous physico-mathematical models that have been already applied to the financial markets and now in particular aspects of the complex non-linear dynamics of several maritime indices such as the time charter rate of an Aframax tanker.

Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach

Abstract: This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the real business cycle (RBC) literature, which gives a general equilibrium picture of the transition process. The model used in this paper follows the methodology of King et al. (1988). Both the model and data series show that the major drop in output was due to productivity. In addition, the timing of the banking reforms coincides with the improvement of economic performance. This is a strong indication that banking regulations in place were crucial for the output performance throughout the period in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, a finding that has important implications for economic policy.

Forecasting tourist arrivals to Balearic Islands using genetic programming

Abstract: Traditionally, univariate time-series models have largely dominated forecasting for international tourism demand. In this paper, the ability of a genetic program (GP) to predict monthly tourist arrivals from UK and Germany to Balearic Islands, Spain is explored. GP has already been employed satisfactorily in different scientific areas, including economics. The technique shows different advantages regarding to other forecasting methods. Firstly, it does not assume a priori a rigid functional form of the model. Secondly, it is more robust and easy-to-use than other non-parametric methods. Finally, it provides explicitly a mathematical equation which allows a simple ad hoc interpretation of the results. Comparing the performance of the proposed technique against other method commonly used in tourism forecasting (no-change model, moving average and ARIMA), the empirical results reveal that GP can be a valuable tool in this field.

Is PEAD a consequence of the presence of the cognitive bias of self-attribution in investors' expectations regarding permanent earnings? Evidence from Athens Stock Exchange

Abstract: The main objective of the paper is to test whether post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is a consequence of the presence of self-attribution bias in investors’ expectations, regarding permanent earnings. This is the first study to examine empirically this issue, in the sample of Athens Stock Exchange firms. Self-attribution bias implies that the investors respond asymmetrically to confirmations and negations of their prior expectations, regarding permanent earnings, which are based on private information. Confirmations of prior expectations, which are based on private information, lead to increases in investors’ confidence in their expectations, regarding permanent earnings. On the other side, negations of prior expectations, which are based on private information, fail to diminish investors’ confidence, regarding permanent earnings. The study provides evidence that self-attribution bias does not drive PEAD in Athens Stock Exchange firms.

A new macroeconometric approach to the NATREX model of the equilibrium real exchange rate

Abstract: This paper shows a new macro-econometric approach to the NATREX model of the equilibrium real exchange rate. Many of the models in the literature are based upon anticipations, monetary policy, and speculative capital movements. The NATREX model denotes what are the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate R(Z) and the convergence process – the terms in braces in actual real exchange rate equation. The NATREX model is very different from the monetary models with anticipations and from PPP. The logic of the NATREX model is an analytical framework whereby one can analyse the medium- and long-run effects of policies and exogenous variables upon the real exchange rate and external debt/GDP ratio. This is positive economics. The fundamentals (Z, δ) are treated as exogenous or control/policy variables. The basic equations are derived from inter-temporal optimisation when there is uncertainty, using optimal control and dynamics programming. The NATREX depends on productivity which drives investment in the short run but growth and savings in the long-run.

Optimal investment in immobile human capital in an economic and monetary union

Abstract: We analyse the optimal accumulation of physical and human capital in a small economy in monetary union. We derive the modified golden rule, which states that the optimal rates of investment in physical and human capital depend upon the natural rate of growth and the real interest rate. If they are equal, there exist infinitely many optimal pairs of investment rates. However, if they differ, the golden rule recommends one of two extreme solutions. Optimal investment rates are always linked together by a very simple linear equation (the line H). The economy should always stay on the line H, and move along this line, either up or down, in response to changes in exogenous parameters. These results are illustrated with numerical experiments, based on realistic values of exogenous parameters. Simulations suggest that current levels of investment in human capital in small European countries are way too low.

A comparison of alternative parametric efficiency estimates using rank-sum test statistic

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to compare the empirical results from three alternative parametric efficiency models using rank-sum test statistic. The comparison involves the technical efficiency scores and their hospitals ranking of the following models: a) Battese and Coelli (1992); b) technical inefficiency effect model (Battese and Coelli, 1995); c) non-neutral frontier model (Huang and Liu, 1994). For all models an output – distance production function are estimated using panel data of 112 Greek public hospitals. Technical efficiency scores found to be from 37.10% to 58.10%. Battese and Coelli (1992) model represented higher proportion of hospitals with technical efficiency scores between 50%-70%. Rank-sum test statistic implied that the three stochastic models came from different distribution.

Size and power properties of tests of the martingale difference hypothesis: a Monte Carlo study

Abstract: This paper compares the performance of a wide range of approaches to testing the martingale difference hypothesis in economic and financial time series. An extensive Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate and compare the alternative tests under a martingale difference null hypothesis, which allows for conditional heteroskedasticity and a fat tailed marginal distribution, against alternative hypotheses which receive empirical support in the financial markets. It is found that the wild bootstrap (WB) test, Chow and Denning's variant of a sign test with zero drift, CD(S1), and the bootstrap adjusted sign tests, BS(S1) and BS(S2), are superior to others in that they show desirable size properties under the martingale difference null and excellent power properties against a variety of non-martingale alternatives. In addition, they are all non-parametric finite sample tests and so do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference: indeed, the BS(S2) test requires no strong assumptions on the distribution of the time series being tested.

VAR model training using particle swarm optimisation: evidence from macro-finance data

Abstract: This paper examines the empirical relationship between CPI, oil prices, stock market and unemployment in EU15 using a new computational approach. In particular, we propose a novel approach to train the well-known vector autoregressive (VAR) model using a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) method. Results demonstrate that PSO succeeds in training the model parameters. Furthermore, as the prediction error is found to be low, this strengthens the validity and usability of PSO as a model training method. The empirical results suggest that oil is an important determinant of CPI and stock market changes. Oil price changes affect CPI positively and stock market negatively. Finally, we report no evidence that CPI and unemployment have a negative effect on stock market performance.

A Note on Impact of New Economic Reforms on the Elasticity of Substitution in Indian Industries: Alternative Measures

Abstract: The year 1991 is the year of U-turn for economic policies in India. The process of new economic reforms, started in full sway in this year, has affected significantly, more or less, every sector of the economy. The present paper tries to find out changing substitutability amidst capital and labour in Indian industries as whole over pre- and post-reform periods. For this, three alternative models of VES production function have been chosen for estimation. The impact of reforms is captured by using separate datasets for pre- and post-reform period and also by using dummies. The elasticity of substitution obtained for all three VES production functions, for each pre- and post-reform periods, gives the similar trends, though their magnitudes are different. The elasticity of substitution in post-reform period is although, more than that of pre-reform period, the trend is decreasing.

Monopolisation of triopoly – revisited

Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to provide a new insight into the possibility of monopolising a three-firm industry through acquisition of rivals in the absence of restrictions imposed by the antitrust authorities. The dynamic model of monopolisation under Cournot-type rivalry among oligopolists implies that the monopolisation through acquisition is not profitable because of the free riding among the owners of firms. However, in a model of triopoly where the acquirer could become the market leader of the Stackelberg type, we show that a single buyer can monopolise an industry through acquisition of rivals. It means that the monopolisation of triopoly may not be prevented by the market alone. This finding has an important regulatory implication different from the results of the previous models: an active intervention of antitrust authorities in the market with only three firms is necessary to block mergers and acquisitions.

Risk process estimation techniques used in the optimisation of financial resources of an insurance company

Abstract: In an insurance company, the risk process estimation and the estimation of the ruin probability are important concerns for an actuary: for researchers, at the theoretical level, and for the management of the company, as these influence the insurer strategy. We consider the evolution over an extended period of time of an insurer surplus process. In this paper, we present some methods for the evaluation of the ruin probability and the reserve fund. We discuss the ruin probability with respect to the parameters of the individual claim distribution, the load factor of premiums, and the intensity parameter of the number of claims process. We analyse the model for which the premiums are computed based on the mean value principle. Also, we attempt the case when the initial capital is proportional to the value of the mean individual claim. We give numerical illustration.

Average treatment effect estimators - inefficiency - minimisation of variance

Abstract: In this paper, we show the inability of a recent average treatment effect estimator (ATE) to catch up the asymptotic semiparametric efficiency bound of Hahn (1998) although it minimises the mean squared error. Additionally, we propose the use of a minimum variance unbiased uniformly estimator of the propensity score in order to minimise the loss of efficiency.