Showing papers in "Journal of Biological Dynamics in 2022"

Parameter identifiability and optimal control of an SARS-CoV-2 model early in the pandemic

Abstract: We fit an SARS-CoV-2 model to US data of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We conclude that the model is not structurally identifiable. We make the model identifiable by prefixing some of the parameters from external information. Practical identifiability of the model through Monte Carlo simulations reveals that two of the parameters may not be practically identifiable. With thus identified parameters, we set up an optimal control problem with social distancing and isolation as control variables. We investigate two scenarios: the controls are applied for the entire duration and the controls are applied only for the period of time. Our results show that if the controls are applied early in the epidemic, the reduction in the infected classes is at least an order of magnitude higher compared to when controls are applied with 2-week delay. Further, removing the controls before the pandemic ends leads to rebound of the infected classes.

Mathematical analysis of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection in the presence of intervention strategies

Abstract: ABSTRACT The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has become a global public health issue, and it has been a cause for morbidity and mortality of more people throughout the world. In this paper, we investigated the impacts of vaccination, other protection measures, home quarantine with treatment, and hospital quarantine with treatment strategies simultaneously using a deterministic mathematical modelling approach. No one has considered these intervention strategies simultaneously in his/her modelling approach. We examined all the qualitative properties of the model such as the positivity and boundedness of the model solutions, the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, the effective reproduction number using next-generation matrix method, local stabilities of equilibrium points using the Routh–Hurwitz method. Using the Centre Manifold criteria, we have shown the existence of backward bifurcation whenever the COVID-19 effective reproduction number is less than unity. Moreover, we have analysed both sensitivity and numerical simulation using parameter values taken from published literature. The numerical results show that the transmission rate is the most sensitive parameter we have to control. Also vaccination, other protection measures, home quarantine with treatment, and hospital quarantine with treatment have great effects to minimize the COVID-19 transmission in the community.

Dynamics of an SIRWS model with waning of immunity and varying immune boosting period

Abstract: SIRS models capture transmission dynamics of infectious diseases for which immunity is not lifelong. Extending these models by a W compartment for individuals with waning immunity, the boosting of the immune system upon repeated exposure may be incorporated. Previous analyses assumed identical waning rates from R to W and from W to S. This implicitly assumes equal length for the period of full immunity and of waned immunity. We relax this restriction, and allow an asymmetric partitioning of the total immune period. Stability switches of the endemic equilibrium are investigated with a combination of analytic and numerical tools. Then, continuation methods are applied to track bifurcations along the equilibrium branch. We find rich dynamics: Hopf bifurcations, endemic double bubbles, and regions of bistability. Our results highlight that the length of the period in which waning immunity can be boosted is a crucial parameter significantly influencing long term epidemiological dynamics.

Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a class of SISP respiratory diseases

Abstract: In this paper, the actual background of the susceptible population being directly patients after inhaling a certain amount of PM is taken into account. The concentration response function of PM is introduced, and the SISP respiratory disease model is proposed. Qualitative theoretical analysis proves that the existence, local stability and global stability of the equilibria are all related to the daily emission of PM and PM pathogenic threshold K. Based on the sensitivity factor analysis and time-varying sensitivity analysis of parameters on the number of patients, it is found that the conversion rate β and the inhalation rate η has the largest positive correlation. The cure rate γ of infected persons has the greatest negative correlation on the number of patients. The control strategy formulated by the analysis results of optimal control theory is as follows: The first step is to improve the clearance rate of PM by reducing the PM emissions and increasing the intensity of dust removal. Moreover, such removal work must be maintained for a long time. The second step is to improve the cure rate of patients by being treated in time. After that, people should be reminded to wear masks and go out less so as to reduce the conversion rate of susceptible people becoming patients.

Stability of a fear effect predator–prey model with mutual interference or group defense

Abstract: In this paper, we consider a fear effect predator–prey model with mutual interference or group defense. For the model with mutual interference, we show the interior equilibrium is globally stable, and the mutual interference can stabilize the predator–prey system. For the model with group defense, we discuss the singular dynamics around the origin and the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation, and find that there is a separatrix curve near the origin such that the orbits above which tend to the origin and the orbits below which tend to limit cycle or the interior equilibrium.

Hopf bifurcation in delayed nutrient-microorganism model with network structure

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce and deal with the delayed nutrient-microorganism model with a random network structure. By employing time delay τ as the main critical value of the Hopf bifurcation, we investigate the direction of the Hopf bifurcation of such a random network nutrient-microorganism model. Noticing that the results of the direction of the Hopf bifurcation in a random network model are rare, we thus try to use the method of multiple time scales (MTS) to derive amplitude equation and determine the direction of the Hopf bifurcation. It is showed that the delayed random network nutrient-microorganism model can exhibit a supercritical or subcritical Hopf bifurcation. Numerical experiments are performed to verify the validity of the theoretical analysis.

Comparison of classical tumour growth models for patient derived and cell-line derived xenografts using the nonlinear mixed-effects framework

Abstract: In this study we compare seven mathematical models of tumour growth using nonlinear mixed-effects which allows for a simultaneous fitting of multiple data and an estimation of both mean behaviour and variability. This is performed for two large datasets, a patient-derived xenograft (PDX) dataset consisting of 220 PDXs spanning six different tumour types and a cell-line derived xenograft (CDX) dataset consisting of 25 cell lines spanning eight tumour types. Comparison of the models is performed by means of visual predictive checks (VPCs) as well as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Additionally, we fit the models to 500 bootstrap samples drawn from the datasets to expand the comparison of the models under dataset perturbations and understand the growth kinetics that are best fitted by each model. Through qualitative and quantitative metrics the best models are identified the effectiveness and practicality of simpler models is highlighted

Deciphering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India: optimal control and cost effective analysis

Abstract: In this paper we assess the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 utilizing a compartmental model. The local asymptotic stability of equilibria (disease-free and endemic) in terms of the basic reproduction number have been determined. We find that the system undergoes a backward bifurcation in the case of imperfect quarantine. The parameters of the model have been estimated from the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number has been performed. The findings also suggest that effectiveness of face masks plays a significant role in reducing the COVID-19 prevalence in India. Optimal control problem with several control strategies has been investigated. We find that the intervention strategies including implementation of lockdown, social distancing, and awareness only, has the highest cost-effectiveness in controlling the infection. This combined strategy also has the least value of average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and associated cost.

Using an age-structured COVID-19 epidemic model and data to model virulence evolution in Wuhan, China

Abstract: COVID-19 is a disease caused by infection with the virus 2019-nCoV, a single-stranded RNA virus. During the infection and transmission processes, the virus evolves and mutates rapidly, though the disease has been quickly controlled in Wuhan by ‘Fangcang’ hospitals. To model the virulence evolution, in this paper, we formulate a new age structured epidemic model. Under the tradeoff hypothesis, two special scenarios are used to study the virulence evolution by theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. Results show that, before ‘Fangcang’ hospitals, two scenarios are both consistent with the data. After ‘Fangcang’ hospitals, Scenario I rather than Scenario II is consistent with the data. It is concluded that the transmission pattern of COVID-19 in Wuhan obey Scenario I rather than Scenario II. Theoretical analysis show that, in Scenario I, shortening the value of L (diagnosis period) can result in an enormous selective pressure on the evolution of 2019-nCoV.

Recurrent epidemic waves in a delayed epidemic model with quarantine

Abstract: ABSTRACT In this paper, we are concerned with an epidemic model with quarantine and distributed time delay. We define the basic reproduction number and show that if , then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, whereas if , then it is unstable and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium. We obtain sufficient conditions for a Hopf bifurcation that induces a nontrivial periodic solution which represents recurrent epidemic waves. By numerical simulations, we illustrate stability and instability parameter regions. Our results suggest that the quarantine and time delay play important roles in the occurrence of recurrent epidemic waves.

Uniqueness and stability of periodic solutions for an interactive wild and Wolbachia-infected male mosquito model

Abstract: We investigate a mosquito population suppression model, which includes the release of Wolbachia-infected males causing incomplete cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI). The model consists of two sub-equations by considering the density-dependent birth rate of wild mosquitoes. By assuming the release waiting period T is larger than the sexual lifespan of Wolbachia-infected males, we derive four thresholds: the CI intensity threshold , the release amount thresholds and , and the waiting period threshold . From a biological view, we assume throughout the paper. When , we prove the origin is locally asymptotically stable iff , and the model admits a unique T-periodic solution iff , which is globally asymptotically stable. When , we show the origin is globally asymptotically stable iff , and the model has a unique T-periodic solution iff , which is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulations.

Dynamics analysis of stage-structured wild and sterile mosquito interaction impulsive model

Abstract: In this paper, we study a stage-structured wild and sterile mosquito interaction impulsive model. The aim is to study the feasibility of controlling the population of wild mosquitoes by releasing sterile mosquitoes periodically. The existence of trivial periodic solutions is obtained, and the corresponding local stability and global stability conditions are proved by Floquet theory and Lyapunov stability theorem, respectively. And we prove the existence conditions of non-trivial periodic solutions and their local stability. We can find that the system has the bistable phenomenon in which the trivial periodic solution and the non-trivial periodic solution can coexist under certain threshold conditions. All the results show that the appropriate release period and release amount of sterile mosquitoes can control the wild mosquito population within a certain range and even make them extinct. Finally, numerical simulation verifies our theoretical results.

Persistence and extinction of a modified Leslie–Gower Holling-type II two-predator one-prey model with Lévy jumps

Abstract: This paper is concerned with a modified Leslie–Gower and Holling-type II two-predator one-prey model with Lévy jumps. First, we use an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to describe the environmental stochasticity and prove that there is a unique positive solution to the system. Moreover, sufficient conditions for persistence in the mean and extinction of each species are established. Finally, we give some numerical simulations to support the main results.

A mathematical model for tilapia lake virus transmission with waning immunity

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to investigate the influence of the waning immunity on the dynamics of Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) transmission in wild and farmed tilapia within freshwater. We formulate a model for which susceptible individuals can contract the disease in two ways: (i) direct mode caused by contact with infected individuals; (ii) indirect mode due to the presence of pathogenic agents in the water. We obtain an age-structured model which combines both age since infection and age since recovery. We derive an explicit formula for the reproductive number and show that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when, . We discuss on the form of the waning immunity parameter and show numerically that a Hopf bifurcation may occur for suitable immunity parameter values, which means that there is a periodic solution around the endemic equilibrium when, .

Existence and stability of two periodic solutions for an interactive wild and sterile mosquitoes model

Abstract: In this paper, we study the periodic and stable dynamics of an interactive wild and sterile mosquito population model with density-dependent survival probability. We find a release amount upper bound , depending on the release waiting period T, such that the model has exactly two periodic solutions, with one stable and another unstable, provided that the release amount does not exceed . A numerical example is also given to illustrate our results.

Analysing transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS with optimal control strategy and its controlled state

Abstract: HIV is a virus that weakens a person's immune system. HIV has three stages, and AIDS is the most severe stage of HIV (Stage 3). People with HIV should take medicine (called ART) recommended by WHO as soon as possible to reduce the amount of virus in the body. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model for HIV/AIDS with a new approach by focusing on two groups of infectious individuals, HIV and AIDS. We also introduce a controlled class (treated patients and being monitored), and people in this class can spread the disease. We further investigate the essential dynamics of the model through an equilibrium analysis. Optimal control theory is applied to explore effective treatment strategies by combining two control measures: standard antiretroviral therapy and AIDS treatments. Numerical simulation results show the effects of the two time-dependent controls, and they can be used as guidelines for public health interventions.

Bacteria–bacteriophage cycles facilitate Cholera outbreak cycles: an indirect Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Bacteria- Phage (iSIRBP) model-based mathematical study

Abstract: Cholera is an acute enteric infectious disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Despite a huge body of research, the precise nature of its transmission dynamics has yet to be fully elucidated. Mathematical models can be useful to better understand how an infectious agent can spread and be properly controlled. We develop a compartmental model describing a human population, a bacterial population as well as a phage population. We show that there might be eight equilibrium points, one of which is a disease free equilibrium point. We carry out numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses and we show that the presence of phage can reduce the number of infectious individuals. Moreover, we discuss the main implications in terms of public health management and control strategies.

The effect of spatial dynamics on the behaviour of an environmentally transmitted disease

Abstract: Understanding the spread of pathogens through the environment is critical to a fuller comprehension of disease dynamics. However, many mathematical models of disease dynamics ignore spatial effects. We seek to expand knowledge around the interaction between the bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) and sarcoptic mange (etiologic agent Sarcoptes scabiei), by extending an aspatial mathematical model to include spatial variation. S. scabiei was found to move through our modelled region as a spatio-temporal travelling wave, leaving behind pockets of localized host extinction, consistent with field observations. The speed of infection spread was also comparable with field research. Our model predicts that the inclusion of spatial dynamics leads to the survival and recovery of affected wombat populations when an aspatial model predicts extinction. Collectively, this research demonstrates how environmentally transmitted S. scabiei can result in travelling wave dynamics, and that inclusion of spatial variation reveals a more resilient host population than aspatial modelling approaches.

A mathematical model with nonlinear relapse: conditions for a forward-backward bifurcation.

Abstract: We constructed a Susceptible-Addicted-Reformed model and explored the dynamics of nonlinear relapse in the Reformed population. The transition from susceptible considered at-risk is modeled using a strictly decreasing general function, mimicking an influential factor that reduces the flow into the addicted class. The basic reproductive number is computed, which determines the local asymptotically stability of the addicted-free equilibrium. Conditions for a forward-backward bifurcation were established using the basic reproductive number and other threshold quantities. A stochastic version of the model is presented, and some numerical examples are shown. Results showed that the influence of the temporarily reformed individuals is highly sensitive to the initial addicted population.

Mathematical modelling of echinococcosis in human, dogs and sheep with intervention

Abstract: In this study, a model for the spread of cyst echinococcosis with interventions is formulated. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points of the model are calculated. The control reproduction number for the model is derived, and the global dynamics are established by the values of . The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if and only if . For , using Volterra–Lyapunov stable matrices, it is proven that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential parameters in the dynamics of CE is carried out. To establish the long-term behaviour of the disease, numerical simulations are performed. The impact of control strategies is investigated. It is shown that, whenever vaccination of sheep is carried out solely or in combination with cleaning or disinfecting of the environment, cyst echinococcosis can be wiped out.

Dynamics and control strategy for a delayed viral infection model

Abstract: In this paper, we derive a delayed epidemic model to describe the characterization of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-mediated immune response against virus infection. The stability of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are analysed. Theoretical results reveal that if the basic reproductive number is greater than 1, the positive equilibrium may lose its stability and the bifurcated periodic solution occurs when time delay is taken as the bifurcation parameter. Furthermore, we investigate an optimal control problem according to the delayed model based on the available therapy for hepatitis B infection. With the aim of minimizing the infected cells and viral load with consideration for the treatment costs, the optimal solution is discussed analytically. For the case when periodic solution occurs, numerical simulations are performed to suggest the optimal therapeutic strategy and compare the model-predicted consequences.

Dynamics of autotroph–mixotroph interactions with the intraguild predation structure

Abstract: A mathematical model with the intraguild predation structure is proposed to describe the interactions of autotrophs and mixotrophs containing light and nutrients in a well-mixed aquatic ecosystem. The dissipation, existence and stability of equilibria of the model are proved, and the ecological reproductive indexes for the extinction, survival and coexistence of autotrophs and mixotrophs are established. We also consider the influence of Holling type functional responses and abiotic factors on the coexistence and biomass of autotrophs and mixotrophs. It is shown that the intraguild predation structure is beneficial to phytoplankton biodiversity and provides an explanation for the phytoplankton paradox.

Impact of information and Lévy noise on stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model under real statistical data

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the dynamical behaviour of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) susceptible-infected-removed epidemic model with the inclusion of the influence of information intervention and Lévy noise. The existence and uniqueness of the model positive solution are proved. Then, we establish a stochastic threshold as a sufficient condition for the extinction and persistence in mean of the disease. Based on the available COVID-19 data, the parameters of the model were estimated and we fit the model with real statistics. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to support our theoretical results.

The effects of evolution on the stability of competing species

Abstract: Based on evolutionary game theory and Darwinian evolution, we propose and study discrete-time competition models of two species where at least one species has an evolving trait that affects their intra-specific, but not their inter-specific competition coefficients. By using perturbation theory, and the theory of the limiting equations of non-autonomous discrete dynamical systems, we obtain global stability results. Our theoretical results indicate that evolution may promote and/or suppress the stability of the coexistence equilibrium depending on the environment. This relies crucially on the speed of evolution and on how the intra-specific competition coefficient depends on the evolving trait. In general, equilibrium destabilization occurs when , when the speed of evolution is sufficiently slow. In this case, we conclude that evolution selects against complex dynamics. However, when evolution proceeds at a faster pace, destabilization can occur when . In this case, if the competition coefficient is highly sensitive to changes in the trait v, destabilization and complex dynamics occur. Moreover, destabilization may lead to either a period-doubling bifurcation, as in the non-evolutionary Ricker equation, or to a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation.

Analysis of HIV latent infection model with multiple infection stages and different drug classes

Abstract: Latently infected CD T cells represent one of the major obstacles to HIV eradication even after receiving prolonged highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). Long-term use of HAART causes the emergence of drug-resistant virus which is then involved in HIV transmission. In this paper, we develop mathematical HIV models with staged disease progression by incorporating entry inhibitor and latently infected cells. We find that entry inhibitor has the same effect as protease inhibitor on the model dynamics and therefore would benefit HIV patients who developed resistance to many of current anti-HIV medications. Numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical results and show that the virus and latently infected cells reach an infected steady state in the absence of treatment and are eliminated under treatment whereas the model including homeostatic proliferation of latently infected cells maintains the virus at low level during suppressive treatment. Therefore, complete cure of HIV needs complete eradication of latent reservoirs.

Viability of Pentadesma in reduced habitat ecosystems within two climatic regions with fruit harvesting

Abstract: Habitat loss and harvesting of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) significantly affect the population dynamics. In this paper, we propose a general mathematical modelling approach incorporating the impact of habitat size reduction and non-lethal harvesting of NTFP on population dynamics. The model framework integrates experimental data of Pentadesma butyracea in Benin. This framework allows us to determine the rational non-lethal harvesting level and habitat size to ensure the stability of the plant ecosystem, and to study the impacts of distinct levels of humidity. We suggest non-lethal harvesting policies that maximize the economic benefit for local populations.

Dynamic analysis of stochastic delay mutualistic system of leaf-cutter ants with stage structure and their fungus garden

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a stochastic delay mutualistic model of leaf-cutter ants with stage structure and their fungus garden, in which we explore how the discrete delay and white noise affect the dynamic of the population system. The existence and uniqueness of global positive solution are proved, and the asymptotic behaviours of the stochastic model around the positive equilibrium point of the deterministic model are also investigated. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the persistence of the population are established. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to show the effect of random environmental fluctuation on the model.

Optimal reduced-mixing for an SIS infectious-disease model

Abstract: Which reduced-mixing strategy maximizes economic output during a disease outbreak? To answer this question, we formulate an optimal-control problem that maximizes the difference between revenue, due to healthy individuals, and medical costs, associated with infective individuals, for SIS disease dynamics. The control variable is the level of mixing in the population, which influences both revenue and the spread of the disease. Using Pontryagin's maximum principle, we find a closed-form solution for our problem. We explore an example of our problem with parameters for the transmission of Staphylococcus aureus in dairy cows, and we perform sensitivity analyses to determine how model parameters affect optimal strategies. We find that less mixing is preferable when the transmission rate is high, the per-capita recovery rate is low, or when the revenue parameter is much smaller than the cost parameter.

Control analysis of virotherapy chaotic system

Abstract: In this work, we consider a chaotic system that plays a vital role in the treatment of cancer by injection of a virus externally. Due to the sensitivity of this disease, most of its treatments are highly risky. Therefore, we have designed control inputs using adaptive and passive control techniques for virotherapy. Both controllers are designed to bring global stability to the cancer system with the aid of a quadratic Lyapunov function. Furthermore, we use simulations to verify our controllers. Moreover, we show that our adaptive control technique gives better results in comparison.

Dynamical analysis of a modified Leslie–Gower Holling-type II predator-prey stochastic model in polluted environments with interspecific competition and impulsive toxicant input

Abstract: In this paper, we use a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to simulate the stochastic perturbations in the environment, and then a modified Leslie–Gower Holling-type II predator-prey stochastic model in a polluted environment with interspecific competition and pulse toxicant input is proposed. Through constructing V-function and applying formula, the sharp sufficient conditions including strongly persistent in the mean, persistent in the mean and extinction are established. In addition, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulation.