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Showing papers in "Journal of East Asian Studies in 2003"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the Philippines, the country is in a state of crisis due to the failure of democratic structures to respond to the needs of the poor and excluded as mentioned in this paper, as highlighted by the popular uprisings of April and May 2001.
Abstract: No country in Asia has more experience with democratic institutions than the Philippines. Over more than a century—from the representational structures of the Malolos republic of 1898 to the political tutelage of American colonial rule, from the cacique democracy of the postwar republic to the restoration of democracy in the People Power uprising of 1986—Filipinos know both the promise of democracy and the problems of making democratic structures work for the benefit of all. Some 100 years after the introduction of national-level democratic institutions to the Philippines, the sense of frustration over the character of the country's democracy is arguably more apparent than ever before. On the one hand, the downfall of President Joseph Estrada in January 2001 revealed the capacity of many elements of civil society to demand accountability and fairness from their leaders; on the other hand, the popular uprisings of April and May 2001—involving thousands of urban poor supporters of Estrada—highlighted the continuing failure of democratic structures to respond to the needs of the poor and excluded. Philippine democracy is, indeed, in a state of crisis.

207 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a de facto class bargain, partly forced by the developmental state and chaebol firms and partly prodded by organized labor, crumbled with the Asian crisis.
Abstract: Globalization pressured a rebirth of the state in Korea, but in an unexpected direction. Whereas the welfare state retrenched in Western Europe under pressures of the borderless global economy, the Korean state reinvented itself into the guardian of public welfare. That regime shift occurred when the “Asian crisis” struck in 1997 to end the developmental state's way of growth. Previously, the state channeled subsidized bank loans to the chaebol firms (monopolistic conglomerates in strategic industries) and the chaebol company welfare to its workforce in order to secure industrial peace in strategic growth sectors. This de facto class bargain, partly forced by the developmental state and chaebol firms and partly prodded by organized labor, crumbled with the Asian crisis. No longer too big to fail, the chaebol firms plunged into downsizing and restructuring in order to raise profitability, thus precipitating a profound social crisis. The rules and norms of lifetime employment and promotion by seniority gestated during Park Chung Hee's authoritarian rule (1961–1979), and labor's acquiescence—if not consent—to the chaebol-led hypergrowth strategy collapsed as the crisis damaged a third of Korea's top thirty business conglomerates in 1997 and 1998.

53 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explain the birth of a preferential trading policy in a country that until recently had been a staunch multilateralist, and analyze the reasons for the launch of FTA negotiations between Japan and Mexico.
Abstract: Since late 1998, Japan reversed its exclusive support for the multilateral trade regime and endorsed for the first time bilateral and preferential trade pacts, signing one with Singapore, negotiating another with Mexico, and announcing free trade talks with South Korea. The newfound Japanese interest in pursuing free trade agreements (FTAs) therefore represents one of the most significant departures in Japanese trade diplomacy of the past half-century. This article seeks to explain the birth of a preferential trading policy in a country that until recently had been a staunch multilateralist, and to analyze the reasons for the launch of FTA negotiations between Japan and Mexico. Indeed, one of the most remarkable aspects of Japan's new trade bilateralism is its cross-regional orientation, seeking preferential trade with a Latin American nation. Trade negotiations with Mexico are of great consequence to the development of Japan's FTA strategy for one more reason. Japan has embarked on this new regionalism to offset the negative effects of competing FTAs, but at the same time it has tried to minimize agricultural concessions to bilateral trade partners. Mexico is the first large agricultural exporter that Japan has approached for trade negotiations and is therefore an important test for the success of the Japanese FTA strategy.

31 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Auerback et al. as mentioned in this paper pointed out that the party sys tem is generally inchoate and shallow, and legislative elections typically do not yield a majority party in the four new Asian democracies, resulting in constant political conflict and policy stalemate.
Abstract: Although quite a few third-wave democracies in Southern and Cen tral Europe became consolidated within a decade of their origin, all of those in East Asia are still fragile and fledgling. Ever since South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines embarked on democratic transition or restoration more than a decade ago, 1 elections have been reg ularly held, and democratic competition is widely considered the only path to power. 2 Rough edges remain, however. Rules are stretched, even bent. Political stalemate tends to delay, if not prevent, timely policy action. And public cynicism toward underperforming, if not malfunction ing, democracy in these four polities is so pervasive and unnerving that pundits warn against a crisis of governance in East Asia’s new democra cies. Syndromes of democratic malaise abound. First of all, the party sys tem is generally inchoate and shallow, 2 and legislative elections typically do not yield a majority party in the four new Asian democracies, resulting in constant political conflict and policy stalemate. The party system in Tai wan has become increasingly fluid, whereas in the other three cases polit ical parties reinvent themselves without any qualms, party discipline is loose, and party-switching is all too frequent. Concerning the results of legislative elections, Corazon Aquino’s (1986‐1992) majority in the Fil ipino Congress was a notable exception, but it was an epic phenomenon of the People’s Power Revolution, and the majority was based on a loose coalition in support of her rather than a political party. Another exception was the landslide victory for the Thai Rak Thai Party under the leadership of the billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand’s 2001 election. But this unprecedented result was a national backlash against the International Monetary Fund’s policy prescriptions during the recent Asian financial crisis (Auerback 2001). The third exceptional case, the Kuomintang

21 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: One of the fascinating theoretical questions posed by the spread of industrialization and today's nation-state-building process is how these originally Western and quintessentially modern institutions come to take root in other civilizations.
Abstract: One of the fascinating theoretical questions posed by the spread of industrialization and today's nation-state-building process is how these originally Western and quintessentially modern institutions come to take root in other civilizations. The question becomes even more intriguing when the process of adaptation is unusually swift and successful as in East Asia. In Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, the states and peoples had scant time to learn and absorb modern practices, norms, and concepts before undertaking, or being subjected to, countless reforms and revolutions in the name of “modernization.” How, or in what terms, did the people in this “great transformation” understand and interpret what they were doing? If the as-yet imperfectly understood concepts and values could not be appealed to, what resources—intellectual and ethico-moral—were at their disposal to use to motivate themselves and persuade others to undertake or endure such massive changes?

15 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the post-Cold War era, East Asia has been the most peaceful region in the world as discussed by the authors, and economic growth has been faster than in any other region of the world.
Abstract: East Asia in the post–Cold War era has been the world's most peaceful region. Whereas since 1989 there have been major wars in Europe, South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and significant and costly civil instability in Latin America, during this same period in East Asia there have been no wars and minimal domestic turbulence. Moreover, economic growth in East Asia has been faster than in any other region in the world. East Asia seems to be the major beneficiary of pax Americana.

13 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a major new political party has emerged that currently dominates the parliament, civil society is flourishing, and dozens of mass protests are thriving all over the country, yet beneath this veneer of change, the old Thailand is recognizably intact.
Abstract: Since 1997, following the twin transformations of economic meltdown and comprehensive constitutional changes, practically every area of Thailand's public sphere has undergone significant reordering. New checks and balances have been created, new institutions established, old institutions abolished and merged, and new rules of the electoral game put into place. A major new political party has emerged that currently dominates the parliament, civil society is flourishing, and dozens of mass protests are thriving all over the country. Yet beneath this veneer of change, the old Thailand is recognizably intact. Politicians of doubtful integrity still flourish; social cleavages are as evident as before; corruption is endemic and accountability weak; election results are contested and contentious; and the military, though lying low, retains an inordinate number of privileges. Despite the reform process, the Thai political system remains in a feeble state; new institutions designed to improve the functioning of the parliamentary and party political orders have thus far failed to change the rules of the game.

12 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 2002, a mass candlelight vigil was held in front of Seoul's city hall to protest against unequal provisions in South Korea's status of forces agreement with its U.S. ally.
Abstract: December 2002 shook up South Korea's conservative establishment and its U.S. ally. Five days before the South Korean presidential election, with a quarter of the electorate still remaining undecided, leaders of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and religious activists staged a massive candlelight vigil in front of Seoul's city hall to protest against “unequal” provisions in South Korea's Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with its U.S. ally. The political rally drew some 40,000 protestors from all walks of life. Moreover, it was only one among many climaxes in a long mobilization drive launched by NGOs and “netizens” since June, when a U.S. armored vehicle driven by Sergeant Fernando Nino and Mark Walker ran over two teenage girls during a military exercise in Hyochonli. That month saw some thirty NGOs establish a national umbrella organization to demand the trial of Nino and Walker under South Korean law. Then, in December, the Catholic, Buddhist, and Protestant religious orders joined in to lend their authority to the protestors by collectively calling for the revision of SOFA to give South Korea “primary jurisdiction” over criminal cases. The radical hanchongryon university students, too, showed up in protest sites to stir up and escalate anti-American sentiments, regularly raiding U.S. military bases in Uijongbu and Yongsan and even breaking into the U.S. Embassy compound in November. But unlike the past, this intrusion of radical hanchongryon activists did not drive away presumably conservative middle-class groups from political rallies. On the contrary, the call for a SOFA revision grew louder after the U.S. military court judged Nino and Walker not guilty of negligent homicide.

9 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Although Korea has made significant strides to strengthen its democratic system since the successful transition in the late 1980s as part of the “third wave” of global democratization, a look into the process of making budgetary policy in the National Assembly would suggest that Korean democracy is far from consolidation.
Abstract: Although Korea has made significant strides to strengthen its democratic system since the successful transition in the late 1980s as part of the “third wave” of global democratization, a look into the process of making budgetary policy in the National Assembly would suggest that Korean democracy is far from consolidation. Korean politics has shed itself for the most part of its authoritarian past, when the military was the main conduit of action and oppression. The principle of free, regular, and fair competition has taken root as the procedural norm in both national and local elections. Korean citizens enjoy civil liberties to a degree unprecedented in the authoritarian era, and civil society transformed into an increasingly open, transparent, and pluralistic field of political action.

8 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In 2002, North Korea admitted to a visiting U.S. envoy of having a clandestine nuclear program through uranium enrichment, which is a violation of, among other things, the bilateral agreement it signed with the United States eight years ago.
Abstract: North Korea has become the focus of international attention once again. In October 2002 it admitted to a visiting U.S. envoy of having a clandestine nuclear program through uranium enrichment, which is a violation of, among other things, the bilateral agreement it signed with the United States eight years ago. In retaliation, the United States canceled shipment of heavy fuel oil to North Korea, that shipment being part of the agreement to compensate for North Korea's abandonment of its nuclear program. Since then, North Korea has astonished the world with a series of highly provocative moves: it restarted the nuclear facilities that it had frozen since 1994; expelled the inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); declared immediate withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); and threatened to resume test-firing long-range missiles that it voluntarily stopped in 1998.

7 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A new democracy can enhance its legitimacy if it brings human rights violators to justice, thus demonstrating the supremacy of democratic values, including the rule of law as mentioned in this paper, and if no wrongdoer will go unpunished, the democratic regime prevents the danger of a future military coup d'etat and future human rights abuses.
Abstract: New democracies face the arduous task of determining how to deal with gross human rights violations committed during their authoritarian pasts, or the “torturer problem,” to quote Samuel P. Huntington (1991). A new democracy can enhance its legitimacy if it brings human rights violators to justice, thus demonstrating the supremacy of democratic values, including the rule of law. By ensuring that no wrongdoer will go unpunished, the democratic regime prevents the danger of a future military coup d'etat and future human rights abuses. Equally critical, it strengthens the power base of democratic forces by delegitimizing or even occasioning a purge of key authoritarian leaders, who often wield influence within the institutions of power, including the military, even after democratic transition. Punishing past wrongdoings constitutes an act of preempting a democratic reversal. In this sense, the question of the past becomes a struggle over power with today's authoritarian forces and for the future of third-wave democracy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Factions have always been rampant in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics, but precisely because of the universally acknowledged propensity for factionalism, they are formally proscribed by the Leninist rules of innerparty life and hence exist only semiclandestinely, looming more clearly when the central leadership weakens or is in dispute (as, for example, during a succession crisis) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Factionalism is a dimension of informal politics that is hardly unique to China, but it has become well entrenched there for several reasons. We know from available survey data that Chinese political culture is relatively low in trust, and the faction provides a particularly useful refuge from the tiger world of politics, organized as it is around that culturally sanctioned dimension of trust known as guanxi (connections) (Shi 2001 and 1997; Pye 1981). From an individual perspective, although this has been changing more swiftly in society at large via marketization, the institutional landscape of elite politics is still dominated by the looming presence of a single monolithic party-state, to which all auxiliary organizations are subordinated in a corporatist hierarchy; any smaller and more personally useful organizations must be formed sub rosa on a self-help basis. From a structural-functional perspective, the faction serves several functions neglected by party-state corporatism: it services individual careers, in both a defensive and an offensive capacity (i.e., to protect against damaging criticism or purge, and to mobilize support for upward mobility); it provides a way of mobilizing minimal coalitions in policy conflicts; and it may even provide a microcosmic unit beyond the family for social identity and solidarity. Factions have always been rampant in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) politics, but precisely because of the universally acknowledged propensity for factionalism, they are formally proscribed by the Leninist rules of innerparty life and hence exist only semiclandestinely, looming more clearly when the central leadership weakens or is in dispute (as, for example, during a succession crisis). Factions are assembled on the basis of a combination of one's formal and informal “bases” (zhengzhi jichu), the formal consisting of trusted colleagues and subordinates in one's current work unit, the informal consisting of ties made during one's previous socialization or career and carefully cultivated thereafter. Factional activities may most easily be understood according to realist or realpolitik methodological assumptions, but as we shall see, they need not operate in an ideological vacuum. Inasmuch as factions exist tacitly and become politically operational opportunistically, the precise affiliation of a given political actor may change over time depending on the issue at stake and other circumstances; hence faction membership can never be tabulated with certainty, even by faction leaders. A given political actor may have at his or her disposal a range of connections that varies in chronological depth (i.e., spanning x generations) and institutional breadth (i.e., spanning x organizational hierarchies). At a given time and place, the actor may need these categories to define him- or herself factionally. On such occasions, a strong factional network (i.e., one that has been assiduously cultivated over time) is useful and perhaps even indispensable to the actor's survival and highly useful for the pursuit of future political ambitions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Kang et al. as mentioned in this paper argued that the 1994 Agreed Framework amounts to appeasement and that North Korea should be viewed as a "proliferation problem" rather than the "deterrence problem" that the United States has historically classified it as.
Abstract: deal with North Korea. Gallucci argues that engagement provides a potential avenue to \"paving the way\" to a modus vivendi on the peninsula. Paal, however, is much more skeptical about the North's intentions, arguing that the 1994 Agreed Framework amounts to appeasement. In Paal's view, North Korea should be viewed as a \"proliferation problem\" rather than the \"deterrence problem\" that the United States has historically classified it as. This is an excellent study. However, I was a bit puzzled by a few omissions. For a book that examines in depth the situation on the Korean Peninsula, I was surprised that no chapter directly explored South Korea's situation. Given the rapidly changing domestic political and economic context in South Korea, it is by no means guaranteed that South Korea in the future will share the same goals, strategies, or even assessments of the North Korean crisis, as does the United States. Given the importance of the alliance to both countries, South Korea and the United States need to devote more energy to shoring up their relationship. To be fair, this book was published in 2001, and had anyone suggested at the time that there would be serious calls in Washington for the removal of troops from an ungrateful South Korea, that person would have been derided as an idiot. However, the rapidly changing pace of events is showing that previously unthinkable possibilities need to be taken far more seriously. The emerging role of China cannot be dismissed; nor can the possibility that South Korea sees China as a more reliable ally than a geographically distant United States. Whether Japan actually might nuclearize because of a North Korean threat is also taken for granted but deserves more close attention. In sum, this book is an excellent addition to the literature and will be required reading for years as an addition to the scholarly knowledge of regional politics in Asia. • David C. Kang, Government Department Dartmouth College

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Fouraker as mentioned in this paper concludes with a twelve-page assessment of what he earlier called a ''lesser'' thinker, Takada Yasuma, and his contribution to the specter of fascism in Japan.
Abstract: quintessential \"outsider\" Hasegawa Nyozekan, drawn to the state like a moth to a flame, comes to mind). But few have Harootunian's command of the intellectual world of both Europe and Japan. So it is a surprise and a disappointment that after 400 pages the book concludes not with a consideration of the historical role of the important intellectuals-Japanese and European-he introduced us to, but instead with a twelve-page assessment of what he earlier calls a \"lesser\" thinker, Takada Yasuma, and his \"contribution to the specter of fascism in Japan\" (p. 403). Harootunian could have given us a better summation of the role of intellectuals in global fascism (a rubric that is surely most useful in a comparative sense). Instead his book ends sedately. We can only hope that Harootunian will provide us with the comparative perspective on the intellectual road to fascism that this powerfully suggestive work confirms he is capable of. • Lawrence Fouraker, History Department St. John Fisher College

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The U.S. media has been engaged in a seemingly endless debate on China since the end of the Cold War as discussed by the authors, with a series of frictions between the two countries that climaxed in the dispatch of two aircraft carriers to the South China Sea during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, the U. S.-led NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the mid-air collision between two air forces in 2001.
Abstract: Ever since the end of the Cold War, the United States—from the government to the public, from the White House to Congress, from policymakers to pundits, from China specialists to people who know little about China—has engaged itself in the seemingly endless debate on China. Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, people debated whether China was still important to the United States and whether the Sino-U.S. special relationship was worth preserving. Since the early 1990s, with China's remarkable economic “soft landing” and the consequent robust and sustained economic growth, Americans seemed to have reached a consensus that China still matters to the United States for better or worse. U.S.-China relations were often referred to as one of the most important bilateral relations to the United States. But important in what way? Much debate ensued with a series of frictions between the two countries that climaxed in the dispatch of two U.S. aircraft carriers to the South China Sea during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, the U.S.-led NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the midair collision between the two air forces in 2001. The U.S. media tirelessly asked the question: “China: friend or foe?” The pattern for U.S. China policy since the end of the Cold War is that whenever the relationship appeared to be stabilizing and a consensus was shaping, new crises emerged and destroyed the hard-won progress, triggering another round of debate on China as if people never learned anything from the previous debate; the old and familiar discourse started all over again.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Kim Dae-jung made a historic visit to North Korea for the first-ever summit meeting between the leaders of the two Koreas in June of 2000 as mentioned in this paper, which would inevitably be judged in history as a potential starting point for the end of inter-Korean confrontation.
Abstract: Almost exactly a half-century following the outbreak of the Korean War, South Korea president Kim Dae-jung made a historic visit to Pyongyang for the first-ever summit meeting between the leaders of the two Koreas in June of 2000. A decade following the collapse of communism in the rest of the world, Kim's journey would inevitably be judged in history as a potential starting point for the end of inter-Korean confrontation. Three days following direct, broad-ranging discussions with his counterpart, Kim Jong Il, Kim Dae-jung confidently returned to Seoul with an inter-Korean summit declaration promising enhanced efforts at reconciliation and inter-Korean exchange. Upon his return to Seoul, Kim Dae-jung declared that there would be “no more war” on the Korean Peninsula. The next task was to institutionalize an array of exchanges and inter-Korean interactions designed eventually to lead to national reconciliation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a collection of papers presented at a conference focusing on the theme of Confucianism and late Choson Korea is presented, which is a follow-up to The Rise of Neo-Confucians in Korea (1985), also a compilation of manuscripts, presented at the conference on the early choson dynasty (the fourteenth through seventeenth centuries).
Abstract: This volume, a collection of papers presented at a conference focusing on the theme of \"Confucianism and Late Choson Korea,\" is a follow-up to The Rise of Neo-Confucianism in Korea (1985), also a compilation of manuscripts, presented at a conference on the early Choson dynasty (the fourteenth through seventeenth centuries). The editors point out that the late Choson period has received relatively little scholarly attention and that their aim is to offer fresh and comparative insights to neglected but important issues of the period, which was marked by deepening Confucianization and increasing exposure to external influences, including that of Catholicism. They further argue persuasively that the late Choson period needs to be studied in its own right, as a \"vibrant time responding to challenges of its own and generating new agendas\" (pp. 1-2) rather than as a time of continual decline. There are six essays in the book, and they examine the general intellectual culture and religious climate of late Choson Korea, investigating the interactions among the state, Confucianism, and religious communi ties of Shamanism, Buddhism, and Catholicism. The contributors also delve into various debates that had taken place at various intellectual levels and in different sectors of society. In his analysis of the relationship between private Confucian academies and the state, Yong-ho Choe argues that the former sought independence from the latter rather than passively acquiescing to government control. He maintains that the academies were practically independent in matters concerning educational methods and publications of scholars' writings. Choe also discusses the ways in which the proliferation of academies led to the politicization of private academies, especially through factional affiliation. JaHyun Kim Haboush discusses the controversy over the mourning ritual for King Hyojong (r. 1649-1659) to probe its symbolic significance. The controversy, which focused on whether Queen Dowager Chaui (1624-1688), Hyojong's stepmother, should mourn the

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The election of Chen Shui-bian, the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who had been defamed as an antistate rebel only a decade before, constituted a milestone in Taiwan's modern political history as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: March 20, 2000, constituted a milestone in Taiwan's modern political history. That day its electorate chose as president Chen Shui-bian, the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) who had been defamed as an antistate rebel only a decade before. The election also marked the end of the forty-year-plus hegemony of the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalists). That the DPP ascended to the island's supreme political office in spite of its rival's powerful organizational and economic arsenal suggested that the rules of the democratic electoral game finally took root in society, respected by all major political players to produce a peaceful and orderly regime change. Taiwan joined the club of consolidated democracies, so declared many observers.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Lampton as discussed by the authors argues that both sides can afford to overlook the interests and involvement of the other, because both lack unilateral control over their relationship and therefore, mutual partisan adjustment is a policy imperative.
Abstract: David M. Lampton is one of the most respected voices on U.S.-China relations . There are few colleagues who can so effectively integrate and demonstrate the assets of a thoughtful scholar and access to policy processes in both Beijing and Washington. This combination produced a book full of penetrating analysis and prudent advice for academic and policy communities on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. This volume is indispensable reading for all serious students of Sino-American relations . As captured by the book's title-a popular Chinese idiom characterizing two people with intertwined fates but different aspirationsBeijing and Washington practice, in the terminology of rational choice theory, \"mixed motive\" games. Neither side can afford to overlook the interests and involvement of the other, because both lack unilateral control over their relationship. Therefore, \"mutual partisan adjustment\" (to borrow Charles Lindblom 's famous characterization) is a policy imperative. \"It takes two to tango\"-and, realistically, considering the involvement of many domestic and foreign interested parties and audiences, more than just two! Moreover, as one is reminded by the two faces of the Roman god Janus, officials must attend simultaneously to domestic and foreign considerations. Robert Putnam 's well-known formulation of \"two-level games\" emphasizes that academics and officials alike need to be mindful of the domestic motivations and consequences of foreign policy. International negotiations necessarily involve not only the quest for an agreement across a bargaining table but also the search for agreements on each side of this table. It takes three sets of agreements to reach a deal! Foreign agreements require domestic ratification and a continuing commitment to observe their terms. Still a third theme of Lampton's book emphasizes that leaders in Beijing and Washington are strategic actors. Being strategic means, at least , that people seek to understand others ' motives , concerns, and calculations and adjust their behavior in anticipation of others' moves and

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the focus is there fore on the cognitive rather than affective dimensions of judgment under uncertainty, and on situational rather than personality explanations, seek ing to account for departures from rational decisionmaking.
Abstract: People are subject to a variety of psychological factors that distort their reasoning. Emotions such as anger, fear, greed, and envy are examples of "hot" impulses that can cause such distortions. As well, moti vations such as conformity and competition are another common source of judgmental errors. This paper, however, addresses a number of "cold" impulses that can also contribute to biased judgment. The focus is there fore on the cognitive rather than affective dimensions of judgment under uncertainty, and on situational rather than personality explanations, seek ing to account for departures from rational decisionmaking. Why should a journal of area studies and especially an article osten sibly about relations across the Taiwan Strait be concerned with—or, more bluntly, be bothered with—psychological matters? Much that has been written about Asian international relations assumes that governments are rational unitary actors or adopts a variant of Graham Allison's (1971) Model I in his classic study of the Cuban missile crisis. Although useful for some purposes, this orientation manifestly exaggerates the coherence and purposiveness of most real-world policy choices. It also dismisses possible errors in judgment, because its mode of analysis deliberately seeks to rationalize a given policy choice in terms of a set of post hoc goals (in effect, the rational actor model asks what plausible goals could have accounted for the subject's observed policy choice). Accordingly, there is no possibility for misjudgment, and every choice must be (subjec tively) rational in the eyes of the relevant actor. Another strong strand in Asian area studies is the attribution of national character or the application of cultural interpretations to state or mass behavior. Thus, for instance, a sense of insecurity, an abhorrence for disorder, a need for authority figures, and a supersensitivity to "face" are