Showing papers in "Journal of policing, intelligence and counter terrorism in 2022"

Ideologically motivated mass shootings: a crime script analysis of far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired attacks in the United States

Abstract: ABSTRACT This study uses a crime script analysis to examine far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired ideologically motivated mass shooters (IMMS) in the US (1970-2019). This work provides a comparison of incident rates and shooter backgrounds, as well as the preparation, execution, and conclusion of attacks. When comparing the three IMMS types, findings indicate far-right incidents were most common, far-left shooters were largely Black Nationalists, and jihadist-inspired shooters had more success in life (college graduates, employed, married, parents). During initial preparation, IMMS often leaked violent intentions and had facilitating conditions including criminal, domestic violence, and military histories. Jihadist-inspired shooters had more planning, and far-left shooters often accessed guns illegally. During attack execution, IMMS incidents often occurred in the South and involved open-space and/or unrestricted access locations. Jihadist-inspired shooters targeted government locations more often, while far-left incidents often occurred outside with law enforcement on the scene. During attack conclusion, IMMS incidents often ended quickly and involved gunfire with police. Jihadist-inspired shooters had a higher rate of victim casualties, and far-left shooters had a higher rate of police casualties. Far-right shooters had a higher number of victim and police casualties overall. A discussion of findings contextualises IMMS threats and explores strategies for countering the phenomenon.

The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol-18 (TRAP-18) in Australia: face validity, content validity, and utility in the Australian context

Abstract: ABSTRACT Efforts to develop scientifically rigorous and operationally relevant research on the assessment of individuals who present as at risk of radicalisation to violent extremism and/or grievance-fuelled violence remain underdeveloped. The Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) has been used across some jurisdictions in Australia to assess whether individuals are radicalising to violent extremism. A number of research publications suggest that the TRAP-18 may provide a valid assessment in radical individuals and may also have some predictive power to identify individuals who escalate to violence. However, to date, there has been no formal assessment of the usability of the TRAP-18. That is, it’s effectiveness in its aims (face validity), or user agreement of included factors (content validity). This work attends to this, and conducts empirically informed, practitioner-oriented research to examine whether the TRAP-18 is a valid and practical assessment tool for the CVE arena across Australia. We conduct a number of focus groups with both practitioners and academic experts. Overall, the results highlight that the TRAP-18 shows promise for use in Australia.

Super- (and hyper-) posters on extremist forums

Abstract: ABSTRACT This paper examines patterns of posting behaviour on extremist online forums in order to empirically identify and define classes of highly active ‘super-posters'. Using a unique dataset of 8 far-right, 7 Salafi-jihadist, and 2 Incel forums, totalling 12,569,639 unique posts, the study operates a three-dimensional analysis of super-posters (Gini coefficient, Fisher-Jenks algorithm, network analysis) that sheds light on the type of influence at play in these online spaces. Our study shows that extremist forums consistently display four statistically distinguishable classes of posters from the least active ‘hypo-posters' to the most active ‘hyper-posters', as well as demonstrating that, while hyper-posters’ activity is remarkable, they are not necessarily the most central or connected members of extremist forums. These findings, which suggest that extremist forums are places where both minority and majority influences occur, not only advance our understanding of a key locus of online radicalisation; they also pave the way for sounder interventions to monitor and disrupt the phenomenon.

A community resilience linguistic framework for risk assessment: using second order moral foundations and emotion on social media

Abstract: ABSTRACT Mainstream risk assessment frameworks such as TRAP-18, ERG22+, VERA-2R, and RADAR largely use Structured Professional Judgement to map individuals against four critical factors; ideology, affiliation, grievance, and moral emotions. However, the growing use of online communication platforms by extremists presents a series of opportunities to complement or extend existing risk assessment frameworks. Here, we examine linguistic markers of morality and emotion in ideologically diverse online discussion groups and discuss their relevance to extant risk assessment frameworks. Specifically, we draw on social media data from the Reddit platform collected across a range of community topics. Nine hundred and eighty-eight threads containing 272,298 individual comments were processed before constructing high-order models of moral emotions. Emotional and moral linguistic content was then derived from these comments. We then conducted comparisons of linguistic content between mainstream left and right political discourse, anti-Muslim (far-right), Men’s Rights (Incel-like), and a nonviolent apolitical control group. Results show that a combination of individualising moral communication and high emotionality separate far-right and Incel-like groups from mainstream political discourse and provide an early warning opportunity.

Justice and risk assessment: the subjectivity of pre-emptive screening of radicalisation processes

Abstract: ABSTRACT In recent years, the fight against (violent) extremism has focused more on anticipating the threats that they pose. Therefore, early detection of undemocratic ideas by local professionals has become an important part of the preventive approach in counter terrorism radicalisation. Frontline workers who operate in the arteries of society are encouraged to identify processes toward violent behaviour at an early stage. To date, however, little is known about how these professionals take on this screening task at their own discretion. The analysis of 55 interviews with youth workers, municipality civil servants, and community police officers, show that they tended to be insufficiently equipped in general to detect radicalisation towards (violent) extremism at the local level in the Netherlands. Firstly, this is due to varying contents and qualities of training courses which are not suited to building up solid expertise. Secondly, and most importantly, the recognising of deviant behaviour is presumably carried out with a one-sided focus on personal norms and values rather than structured judgements about pathways towards risky behaviour. Various value systems seem to influence the norm for early detection, which means that there is, in practice, a lack of clear indicators.

Violent extremism risk assessment in the Australian courts; professional and ethical challenges for the expert witness in post sentence preventative detention cases

Abstract: ABSTRACT Since 2016, Federal legislation has been in place in Australia allowing for post sentence preventative detention of individuals deemed to pose an unacceptable risk of committing a serious terrorism offence if they were released into the community. This type of legislation poses significant legal, moral and ethical issues as it balances the rights of the community to be protected from harm against the rights of an offender to be released at the end of a finite prison sentence. Courts are required to obtain reports from psychiatrists and/or psychologists as expert witnesses addressing the issue of risk. In this paper, we examine whether the current state of knowledge regarding violent extremism risk assessment meets the legal standards for admissibility and reliability, and we provide guidance on how to address the professional and ethical challenges which are inherent in this work.

The use of self-disclosure to build rapport with mock covert human intelligence sources (CHIS)

Abstract: ABSTRACT The use of covert human intelligence sources for the protection of national security is an important but under-researched area. In light of increased globalisation, and technological developments, examining covert intelligence gathering online may have operational relevance. This study examined the use of similarities in self-disclosure to develop rapport with mock covert human intelligence sources online. A sample of 66 participants were asked to assume the role of a CHIS, listen to an audio recording of a meeting of the criminal network they are part of, and strike a balance between being forthcoming to their handler while at the same time not revealing all information they possessed. They were then interviewed online by a mock handler who opened the conversation in one of three ways: self-disclosing information that highlighted similarities between herself and the CHIS, self-disclosing information that highlighted dissimilarities, or control (no disclosure). Participants completed a follow-up rapport questionnaire based on their interaction with the handler. The study found that mock sources rated rapport higher in the similarities condition in comparison with other conditions; however, it did not translate into a significant difference in the intelligence reported. The findings of this research and its policy and practice implications are discussed.

Indonesia’s response to returning foreign fighters: network affiliation as basis for risk assessment

Abstract: ABSTRACT Council has mandated member-states pursue criminal prosecution, rehabilitation and reintegration of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), the state’s capacity has been limited and there has been public demand to prioritise security over reintegration. The Indonesian public remains divided in terms of facilitating the returnees’ reintegration and rejecting their return for the sake of public security, the government’s response showed an effort to comply with international norms in creating a guided process of rehabilitation and reintegration alongside criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters. This study uses a dataset of Indonesia’s returning FTFs who joined the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) between 2015 and 2020 and were prosecuted on their return. This study finds that terrorist network affiliation has been used in the criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters to determine the degree of risk that they carried. The use of network affiliation is due to the lack of capacity on the state to collect and present evidence of foreign fighting in court. The Indonesian case study showcases the nature of the problem of responding to foreign fighters when the state has limited resources and capacity.

An actor-based approach to understanding radical right viral tweets in the UK

Abstract: ABSTRACT Radical right actors routinely use social media to spread highly divisive, disruptive, and anti-democratic messages. Assessing and countering such content is crucial for ensuring that online spaces can be open, accessible, and constructive. However, previous work has paid little attention to understanding factors associated with radical right content that goes viral. We investigate this issue with a new dataset (the ‘ROT' dataset) which provides insight into the content, engagement, and followership of a set of 35 radical right actors who are active in the UK. ROT contains over 50,000 original entries and over 40 million retweets, quotes, replies and mentions, as well as detailed information about followership. We use a multilevel model to assess engagement with tweets and show the importance of both actor- and content-level factors, including the number of followers each actor has, the toxicity of their content, the presence of media and explicit requests for retweets. We argue that it is crucial to account for role of actors in radical right viral tweets, and therefore, moderation efforts should be taken not only on a post-to-post level but also on an account level.

Violent extremism risk assessment and screening analysis: applicability, challenges, and new developments

Abstract: ABSTRACT This article reviews knowledge related to violent extremism risk assessment, discusses challenges in its use and identifies new developments. Several violent extremism risk assessment tools have been developed over the past decade. The application of such tools in national security, forensic and community practice as well as court proceedings has been documented. The benefits, constraints and interpretation of violent extremism risk assessments are considered. The advantages of a less complex approach to supplement the current time intensive in-depth risk assessment have been identified. Benefits include the early identification and screening of relevant populations including those in the pre-crime space. The way court appointed experts benefit from the included risk indicators and structured professional judgment methodology is also clarified. The paper identifies how risk assessment approaches can be used to inform individualised intervention programs, assess rehabilitation program efficacy as well as identify the risk and threat status of an individual. The new short analytical approach referred to as the Violent Extremism Screening Analysis (VESA) is introduced, developed by the article authors and based on their insights and experience in violent extremism risk assessment. A recommendation is the need to pilot the newly developed short screening approach to clarify applicability and relevance.

Guest Editorial: special issue on violent extremist risk assessment

Abstract: ABSTRACT Violent extremist risk assessment is an evolving field of knowledge and practice, one informed by both empirical research and practitioner field experience. Such assessments have now become a central part of counterterrorism (CT) and countering violent extremism (CVE) responses. It offers structured professional insights and guidance on risk levels at various points on the continuum of those who are, or have, radicalised to violence, from diversion at earlier stages of violent extremist pathways to considerations of risk for post-release terrorist offenders. Any tools that rely on human judgement will necessarily raise questions and debates relating to their validity, structural properties, ability to discriminate between different types of extremists and interrater reliability. While such questions are important, an equally critical but underexamined consideration is the availability of research on the actual practice of violent extremist risk assessment, including how such tools are used across jurisdictions and institutional settings, challenges in their application, and how differing contexts of radicalisation may inform judgements about risk. This special issue, arising from a 2021 AVERT Research Network conference on violent extremism risk assessment, includes contributions from a mix of academics and practitioners who address and explore a number of these research gaps.

Keeping our wits about us: introducing a bespoke informant interview model for covert human intelligence source (CHIS) interactions

Abstract: ABSTRACT The covert use of civilian informants leaves law enforcement agencies open to accusations of unethical conduct. The use of a structured interview protocol is a recognised method of promoting ethical interactions between police and public citizens, however, there is no known interview model specifically designed to meet informant handler objectives. The current study adopts a holistic view of the interaction between ‘informant’ and ‘handler’ to develop a bespoke informant interview model (RWITS-US: Review and Research, Welfare, Information, Tasking, Security, Understanding Context, Sharing). This model is compared to the PEACE model of interviewing as part of a novel experimental paradigm using mock-informants (N = 19), measuring levels of motivation, rapport, cooperation and intelligence gain. Results indicate that the RWITS-US model generated significantly greater levels of self-reported rapport without having any detrimental effect on the other measured variables. Whilst the results are encouraging, we suggest that the RWITS-US model should be tested in handler training environments before being recommended for widespread use in the field.

Disaggregating religiously motivated terrorism: ideology as a frame for strategic behaviour in Islamist and Christian fundamentalist terrorism

Abstract: ABSTRACT Scholars consistently suggest that religiously motivated terrorist groups are more violent and more lethal. This necessarily drives questions about how religious ideology is connected to outcomes of terrorist group behaviour. This study examines how variations in religious ideology may influence strategic choices like target selection, tactic adoption, and the lethality of attacks. Terrorism motivated by Islamism and Christian fundamentalism are examined theoretically and empirically in a framework that allows for comparison across the groups within the same analysis. Though our results support existing claims that religiously motivated terrorism is more likely to target civilians, we find inter-religious differences in tactic adoption and secondary target selection. Finally, while we do find evidence that Islamist terrorism is likely more lethal than secular terrorism, Christian fundamentalist terrorism yields a higher expected casualty rate per attack when compared within the same model.

Victims’ experiences of crime, police behaviour and complaint avenues for reporting police misconduct in Nigeria: an interpretative phenomenological analysis

Abstract: ABSTRACT Police-public relations and accountability are issues of global concern. This study makes an original and significant contribution to police policy, practice and programs designed to encourage confidence in the police by exploring victims’ experiences of crime, police responses and avenues for channelling complaints following police misconduct. An interpretative phenomenological analysis and semi-structured interview were adopted to collate data from 24 male and female participants comprising both victims of crime and non-crime but with direct experiences of perceived police misconduct from Delta state, Nigeria. The analysis finds perceived fear, lack of trust and limited awareness of redress avenues following police misconduct. The study recommends a legal-informed cognitive behavioural therapy on the available complaints channel to improve public confidence in the Nigerian police.

Deception: a critical discourse analysis of undercover policing and intelligence operations in Star Wars: The Clone Wars

Abstract: ABSTRACT This paper takes as its starting point the contention that media representations of crime and policing, and undercover policing in particular, matter. Through a multimodal critical discourse analysis this paper explores the representations of undercover policing and intelligence operations in the animated series Star Wars: The Clone Wars. The paper contends that despite its status as science fiction The Clone Wars engages with several of the real-life practices and challenges of undercover policing and intelligence operations. The overall analysis indicates that The Clone Wars projects an important critique of the morally problematic nature of the militarisation of policing and the routinisation of deceptive undercover policing practices. The paper concludes with a reflection on the consequences of this depiction, arguing that for those practitioners who are willing to engage with representations of their craft in popular culture there are valuable practical lessons to be learned from such fictional accounts.

The impact of the Manchester Arena terror attack: next steps for public safety and policy

Abstract: Manchester Arena held an Ariana Grande concert on the 22nd of May 2017 as a destination of one of the shows on her Dangerous Woman Tour. Around 14,000 people attended the show. Shortly after the concert ended and people started to exit the arena, terrorist Salman Abedi detonated an improvised suicide bomb that was packed with nuts and bolts to ensure maximum harm, in the arena foyer otherwise known as the City Room (Kerslake, 2018). This was the deadliest attack in the UK since the 7/7 bombings in 2005, killing 22 people including children and injuring 116 (Kerslake, 2018). Sixty ambulances and 400 police officers attended the immediate scene (BBC News, 2017). The principal goal of this research project is to improve public safety and protection from terror threats. This research study conducted qualitative empirical research to investigate the impact of the attack on victims. The key findings look at the days following the attack and the initial thoughts and feelings of the victims focusing on public safety, attitudes towards current public safety measures and returning to concerts and changes they would like to see in public safety. Using thematic analysis, the key findings of this project show the lack of concern in current government policy regarding public safety. The topic of public safety and terrorism is a growing area in research (Schuurman, 2018). This case study is particularly important to create change and to learn from previous mistakes to ensure they are not repeated (Manchester Arena Inquiry, 2020).

Humour, trust, and tacit knowledge of police and border officers in international police collaboration

Abstract: Previous studies have highlighted the significant role played by what is referred to as the ‘police gaze’, or the set of tacit skills that police officers use in their everyday work to scan the environment, to identify sources of threats or suspects on the streets. The present study suggests that the police gaze can also be used among police officers who do not know one another and do not know whom to trust and who not to trust. This is even more so in collaborative contexts that require the sharing of sensitive information and knowledge, such as in police intelligence work. The aim of the present paper is to suggest how intelligence officers use jokes and humour to identify whom to trust and whom not to trust. Not only is humour used as a social basis for building a sense of group identity and developing better interpersonal collaboration skills, but it is also used to test which colleagues are more trustworthy than others. The paper ends with conclusions, implications, and suggestions for further studies.

A vector-autoregression-intervention analysis of PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counterterrorism

Abstract: ABSTRACT This study analyses the impact of Turkey’s repressive and conciliatory counterterrorism (CT) policies on moderate and extremist members of the terrorist group, Partiye Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK) in the period 1999–2007, using vector autoregression-intervention analysis. By utilising the data about Turkey’s CT against PKK terrorism, the study finds evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT against extremists increases their involvement in terrorist activity, while repression against moderates decreases their involvement in terrorist activity. The model contributes to the current knowledge base of counterterrorism by providing empirical evidence that repressive and conciliatory CT can increase or decrease terrorism, depending on the target population’s degree of solidarity with a terrorist movement.

Lessons learned from dual site formative evaluations of Countering violent extremism (CVE) programming co-led by Canadian police

Abstract: ABSTRACT Drawing on lessons learned from recently completed formative evaluations of police co-led CVE programming in Toronto, Ontario and Calgary, Alberta, this research aims to underscore the importance of, and provide technical guidance on, evaluation and reporting standards in the context of multi-agency CVE programming – which ultimately will help to facilitate the identification and replication of good practice. The results of the evaluative process highlight the need for greater articulation regarding intended program outcomes as well as program theorising regarding the underlying mechanisms that connect program activities and outputs with said intended outcomes. Both evaluations also demonstrated the importance of prioritising collaboration at both the evaluation-level and the program-level to facilitate successful and robust program implementation. As such, this study also yields findings that speak to the beneficial role that the evaluative process itself can play in facilitating the evolution of CVE programming.

Genetic Surveillance and Crime Control: Social, Cultural and Political Perspectives

Abstract: "Genetic Surveillance and Crime Control: Social, Cultural and Political Perspectives." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print), pp. 1–2