Showing papers in "Journal of policing, intelligence and counter terrorism in 2023"
TL;DR: In this article , the authors examined the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks in Sri Lanka as a case study to probe intelligence and policing counter-terrorism efforts in the country and argued that the intelligence failure was a breakdown in the intelligence and police services' intelligence cycle wherein the relevant information was not disseminated to those who could prevent the attacks.
Abstract: This article examines the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks in Sri Lanka as a case study to probe intelligence and policing counter-terrorism efforts in the country. It explores the background of the bombings, the ensuing investigations and impact of the attacks on the intelligence and police services using Sri Lankan newspaper sources and government reports. The article argues the intelligence failure was a breakdown in Sri Lanka's intelligence and police services’ intelligence cycle wherein the relevant information was not disseminated to those who could prevent the attacks.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , a preliminary study uses a mixture of questionnaires and interviews with CT officers in a single CTU to analyze the blockers and enablers of intelligence sharing since the shift to this new working model.
Abstract: ABSTRACT Counter-terrorism (CT) policing in the United Kingdom is presently delivered by Counter Terrorism Policing Headquarters (CTPHQ) through their Counter Terrorism Command (CTC) in the Metropolitan police. Their work is supported by 11 regional police counter-terrorism units (CTUs) across the UK. This is a relatively new model and as a result, joint working with the UK security Services (MI5) has significantly changed. With increased focus on collaboratively gathering and sharing CT intelligence the new structure and working relationships were designed to overcome existing impediments to intelligence sharing to improve the UKs CT capability. Since the changes, there has been limited empirical assessment of their impact. To address this, our preliminary study uses a mixture of questionnaires and interviews with CT officers in a single CTU to analyze the blockers and enablers of intelligence sharing since the shift to this new working model. Results indicate significant improvements in bilateral intelligence sharing between the police and security services. Responses suggest this has primarily been driven by closer joint working that has enabled higher frequency face-to-face contact. We discuss the findings in the context of implications for the UK’s ability to combat terrorism and future ways to continue improvements.
1 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors explored and compared the 2016 Holey Artisan (Bangladesh) and the 2019 Easter (Sri Lanka) attacks from intelligence failure perspectives to understand the fault lines in counterterrorism (CT) efforts in the south Asian context.
Abstract: Intelligence agencies exist to ensure national security, but the path to attain that goal is filled with numerous unexpected threats and vulnerabilities. This makes intelligence failure often highly likely. This article explores and compares the 2016 Holey Artisan (Bangladesh) and the 2019 Easter (Sri Lanka) attacks from intelligence failure perspectives to understand the fault lines in counterterrorism (CT) efforts in the south Asian context. The article summarises the causes of intelligence failures into three broad yet interconnected themes: failure due to issues within the intelligence activities and agencies, failure leading from policy or direction, and failure arising from psychological forces. This article concludes that poorly coordinated counterterrorism policy, poor internal security and border management apparatus and cognitive limits of the security forces were the causes of the intelligence failure in the Holey Artisan attack. On the other hand, the intelligence failure of the Easter Sunday attacks resulted from political leadership, miscommunication and psychological limits of top intelligence officials, and the intelligence community’s failure to adapt to the emerging security threat of Islamist extremism.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors discuss the changing dimensions of India's national security: emerging perspectives, and discuss the challenges faced by India in terms of policing, intelligence, and counter-terrorism.
Abstract: "Varying dimensions of India’s national security: emerging perspectives." Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print), pp. 1–2
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors highlight the challenges and opportunities associated with applying computational linguistics in the domain of threat assessment and highlight a checklist of questions that should be asked by policymakers and practitioners who (intend to) make use of tools that leverage computational linguistic for threat assessment.
Abstract: ABSTRACT Large-scale linguistic analyses are increasingly applied to the study of extremism, terrorism, and other threats of violence. At the same time, practitioners working in the field of counterterrorism and security are confronted with large-scale linguistic data, and may benefit from computational methods. This article highlights the challenges and opportunities associated with applying computational linguistics in the domain of threat assessment. Four current issues are identified, namely (1) the data problem, (2) the utopia of predicting violence, (3) the base rate fallacy, and (4) the danger of closed-sourced tools. These challenges are translated into a checklist of questions that should be asked by policymakers and practitioners who (intend to) make use of tools that leverage computational linguistics for threat assessment. The ‘VISOR-P’ checklist can be used to evaluate such tools through their Validity, Indicators, Scientific Quality, Openness, Relevance and Performance. Finally, some suggestions are outlined for the furtherance of the computational linguistic threat assessment field.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors address the historical approach and possible solutions from similar countries and organisations before proposing a broader focus on extremist movements over designated terrorist groups, which raises intriguing questions about the most appropriate tools needed to combat this growing threat.
Abstract: After many years of fighting the Global War on Terrorism, the U.S. Intelligence Community is increasingly focusing on the issue of domestic terrorism. This shift in analytic effort raises intriguing questions about the most appropriate tools needed to combat this growing threat. This article addresses the historical approach and possible solutions from similar countries and organisations before proposing a broader focus on extremist movements over designated terrorist groups.
TL;DR: The authors discusses unintended negative consequences in five general arenas that developed in various ways over different periods of time, including undesirable effects on analysis, collection, organisational cultures, and the politicisation of intelligence.
Abstract: Richard Betts once observed that reforms of U.S. intelligence usually produce unintended, negative consequences. The relatively large legislative and administrative reforms that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States enhanced American counterterrorism capabilities substantially but confirmed Betts’ observation in new ways. This article discusses unintended negative consequences in five general arenas that developed in various ways over different periods of time, including undesirable effects on analysis, collection, organisational cultures, and the politicisation of intelligence. While some implications are clear, others are less certain and some are still unfolding.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors employ a red-teaming approach to explore how radio-based communications can be structured using platforms that are physically separated from the internet and thus not vulnerable to internet-based surveillance or attacks.
Abstract: Both intelligence operatives and criminals have a constant need to be able to communicate clandestinely, circumventing surveillance efforts carried out by highly capable adversaries. The recent highly-publicized breaches of internet-based clandestine communications technology and targeted malware attacks, in combination with increasingly sophisticated methods for surveillance of internet traffic has arguably resulted in a cyber-denied environment. This paper employs a red-teaming approach to explore how clandestine communications can be structured using platforms that are physically separated from the internet and thus not vulnerable to internet-based surveillance or attacks. Recent developments in computer-based radio software can be combined with legacy radio technology to provide robust solutions for clandestine communications in a cyber-denied environment. Drawing on case studies from the Cold War, contemporary observations of clandestine radio networks in use today, and technical tests carried out by the authors, this paper stresses the importance for counterintelligence and law enforcement to be prepared for a potential shift in how clandestine communications are implemented by both hostile intelligence services and organized crime. Finally, the paper addresses the issue of proactively countering these techniques by presenting concrete methods for use by counterintelligence and law enforcement to detect radio-based clandestine communications and secure evidence.
TL;DR: In this paper , the extent and nature of this purported relationship between ASD and terrorism engagement as reported in peer-reviewed literature is investigated. But, the evidential and theoretical basis in research for the identified suggestions and claims is lacking.
Abstract: ABSTRACT A number of publications have recently suggested or claimed that autism spectrum disorders (ASD) do or may increase an individual’s risk of or vulnerability for terrorism engagement. In this paper, we aim to ascertain the extent and nature of this purported relationship between ASD and terrorism engagement as reported in peer-reviewed literature. We analyse the relevant literature by considering research designs and the importance of comparison groups in analytic studies for studying why outcomes occur. This review finds that the evidential and theoretical basis in research for the identified suggestions and claims is lacking. Existing research cannot definitively conclude, nor does it suggest, that individuals with ASD are any more vulnerable to, or any more at risk of, terrorism engagement than other individuals. The findings of this literature review pose questions that arise across the research-practice debate. We discuss and attempt to broaden the research-practice debate in relation to the ongoing ASD-terrorism debate by drawing upon critique from the field of science studies.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors present an interview with three jihadists who acted in the name of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and demonstrate that post 9/11 terrorists do not observe al- Qaeda or ISIS mimicking tribal patterns, but they adopt tribal motifs.
Abstract: 9/11 continues to influence a new generation of jihadists who were not even born or were very young children in 2001. The attack gave the al-Qaeda brand a lustre that would not be dimmed until the deaths of Osama Bin Laden and most recently Ayman Al Zawahiri. Drawing on interviews with three jihadists who acted in the name of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), this article demonstrates that post 9/11 terrorists do not observe al-Qaeda or ISIS mimicking tribal patterns, but—consciously or not— they adopt tribal motifs. The article highlights the ideological path that these jihadists took and examines their tribal system’s desire to be accepted—or seek some accommodation—with terrorist organizations that behave like tribes. Through an examination of these cases involving converts to radical Islam in the United States, this article seeks to shed light on tribal motifs which serve as a contemporary factor for radicalization.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors examined the effect of perceived use of body-worn cameras (BWCs) on procedural justice, police lawfulness, police legitimacy, specific compliance, general compliance, cooperation with police, and satisfaction with police.
Abstract: ABSTRACT The study examined the effect of perceived use of body-worn cameras (BWCs) on procedural justice, police lawfulness, police legitimacy, specific compliance, general compliance, cooperation with police, and satisfaction with police. Data for the study were obtained from a survey administered to randomly selected undergraduate students (N = 617). Independent samples t-test for bivariate analysis and structural equation modeling for unmediated and mediated analyses were conducted. The respondents believed that BWCs would significantly improve procedural justice, police lawfulness, and satisfaction with police; however, they were significantly less likely to believe that BWCs would increase cooperation and general compliance. Perceived use of BWCs, however, did not have a significant effect on police legitimacy and specific compliance. The results of the mediation analyses showed that the effect of perceived use of BWCs on compliance, cooperation, and satisfaction was mediated through procedural justice and police legitimacy. BWCs improve citizen perceptions of procedural justice, police lawfulness, and satisfaction with police, and procedural justice and police legitimacy mediate the effect of BWCs on compliance and cooperation.
TL;DR: In this article , data from 20 police services over a 4-year period that outlines the annual volume of intelligence reports retained by services is analysed using inferential statistics to establish that during 2020 there was a significant rise in intelligence held by the police.
Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic affected policing in a number of both anticipated, and unexpected ways. However, the impact on police intelligence remains an unexplored area. Understanding how the pandemic affected the volume of police intelligence is important as it underpins the intelligence-led policing model, which is as a key system that helps drive police activity. In this study, data from 20 police services over a 4-year period that outlines the annual volume of intelligence reports retained by services is analysed using inferential statistics to establish that during 2020 there was a significant rise in intelligence held by the police. In this study, several hypothesis are considered as causal factors that contributed to the rises and conclude that the pandemic is the most likely reason, which is caused by a rise in public order intelligence related to breaches of coronavirus legislation. The impact on the division of labour that arises from tasking such police intelligence is discussed, and the article calls upon similar research on the issuance of coronavirus fixed penalties and stop and search activity during the pandemic, to suggest that the rises have the potential to contribute to the disproportionate targeting of black and minority ethnic communities. We call for further research to explore this further.
TL;DR: The authors describe and organize the different milieus of the Australian extreme right into a typology based on the past decade of observable violent activities, and suggest that the existing domestic legislative environment is sufficient to manage these threats when informed by international practice.
Abstract: ABSTRACT The contemporary extreme right is home to diverse milieus, some of which challenge or confuse stereotypical understandings of the threat. This study seeks to describe and organise the different milieus of the Australian extreme right into a typology based on the past decade of observable violent activities. The typology proposes a threefold way to view the Australian extreme right: 1. ethnocentric milieus, who asymmetrically evaluate other peoples and cultures, commonly informed by abstractions and preconceptions, especially as related to religion or ethnicity; 2. anti-government milieus, who fixate on the government and its policies as the primary source of societal woes; and 3. religious milieus, spanning numerous religious traditions and faiths, who anchor their worldviews in theological constructions. Having developed this typology, we revisited counteractions anchored in international practice and domestic legislation. We suggest that the existing domestic legislative environment is sufficient to manage these threats when informed by international practice.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors trace a line through the threat that has been seen over the past twenty years to understand how the threat and response interact with each other, and cast a light on how the lone actor threat became the dominant part of the threat picture in large parts of the west.
Abstract: Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks by al Qaeda on the United States, the terrorist threat has evolved. Two decades on, the world continues to worry about violent Islamist terrorist attacks, though now the threat picture seems dominated by lone actor plots which often seem disconnected from any major terrorist group. This article seeks to understand how we got to where we are today by tracing a line through the threat that has been seen over the past twenty years to understand how the threat and response interact with each other. It also seeks to cast a light on how the lone actor threat became the dominant part of the threat picture in large parts of the west.
TL;DR: In this article , the authors conducted an exploratory study to evaluate an asynchronous training module and software prototype with 15 college students and found that the module boosted knowledge of key concepts and awareness of big data accountability issues.
Abstract: Teaching data literacy topics, such as machine learning, to security studies students is difficult because there are limited security-related teaching materials (e.g. datasets, user friendly software) for instructors. To address this challenge, we conducted an exploratory study to evaluate an asynchronous training module and software prototype with 15 college students. A key finding from this study is the importance of a simple teaching software tool and security case studies. The module boosted knowledge of key concepts and awareness of ‘big data’ accountability issues. We also found that teaching data-science concepts – even at an elementary level – requires that students have basic proficiencies working with datasets and spreadsheets, which suggests the need to integrate these skills throughout security studies curricula. This research also highlights the importance of building partnerships with data-science instructors to integrate data-science literacy in security studies and intelligence studies.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors apply Bayesian theories to critically analyse and offer reforms of intelligence analysis, collection, analysis, and decision making on the basis of Human Intelligence, Signals Intelligence, and Communication Intelligence.
Abstract: This paper applies Bayesian theories to critically analyse and offer reforms of intelligence analysis, collection, analysis, and decision making on the basis of Human Intelligence, Signals Intelligence, and Communication Intelligence. The article criticises the reliabilities of existing intelligence methodologies to demonstrate the need for Bayesian reforms. The proposed epistemic reform program for intelligence analysis should generate more reliable inferences. It distinguishes the transmission of knowledge from its generation, and consists of Bayesian three stages modular model for the generation of reliable intelligence from multiple coherent and independent testimonial sources, and for the tracing and analysis of intelligence failures. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research, the development of artificial intellignce that may measure coherence and reliability of HUMINT sources and infer intelligence following the outlined general modular model.
TL;DR: In this article , a case-study tracing the emergence of MUU ideological constructs from the incelosphere is presented, based on a theoretical model that acknowledges the interplay of structural-, societal-, and individual-level drivers, arguing that the MUU phenomenon results from strategic individual uses of a specific technological affordance.
Abstract: In Europe and North America, an increasing proportion of individuals who are referred to de-radicalization programmes, arrested for terrorism offences, or involved in politically motivated violence, present a ‘mixed, unclear, and unstable' (MUU) ideological profile instead of holding a single, clear and coherent extremist belief system. Where do these composite and often inconsistent ideological constructs come from? This paper offers a direct attempt to conceptualize and empirically expose the sources and drivers of the MUU phenomenon, using an in-depth case-study tracing the emergence of MUU ideological constructs from the incelosphere. Based on a theoretical model that acknowledges the interplay of structural-, societal-, and individual-level drivers, we argue that the MUU phenomenon results from (sometimes strategic) individual uses of a specific technological affordance – outlinking – and that these fluctuate in response to significant external events such as the Covid-19 lockdown. Our findings enhance our understanding of recent cases of extremist violence and unlock new targeted avenues for CVE intervention.
TL;DR: In this article , the Theological Assessment undertaken by prison-based services in Australia can play a role in utilising the religious/ideological frame of the offender to understand their intrinsic motivations, assess their risks, and create specific reintegration responses as part of its tailored multi-disciplinary case management approach.
Abstract: Religious/Ideological motivation often features prominently in both expressed motivation for and disengagement/de-radicalisation from violent extremism. This paper aims to identify indicators of religion in framing some of the offenders’ motivations as engaged through the prison-based services in Australian jurisdiction. It is suggested that, rather than being a primary motivator for extremist behaviours, religion/ideology is a frame through which intrinsic motivations are expressed. This paper highlights how the Theological Assessment undertaken by prison-based services in Australia can play a role in utilising the religious/ideological frame of the offender to understand their intrinsic motivations, assess their risks, and create specific reintegration responses as part of its tailored multi-disciplinary, case management approach.
TL;DR: In this article , the transnational legal order which governs cross-border counterterrorism efforts has been studied and developed after the September 11 terrorist attacks, and the authors explore the concept of normative orders and how they develop and then focus on how international, domestic and transnational criminal frameworks in the post-September 11 era have evolved to better facilitate sustained counterterrorism pressure on terrorist groups.
Abstract: The September 11 attacks and other large-scale terrorist attacks of that era catalyzed legal and policy responses by governments around the world that served to augment their respective counterterrorism capabilities and the international legal regimes relating to counterterrorism. The collective effect of international reaction to these terrorist attacks on the transnational legal order as it relates to counterterrorism was significant. This article illuminates the ways in which the specific part of the transnational legal order which governs cross-border counterterrorism efforts counterterrorism – the transnational counterterrorism order – expanded and developed after September 11. To do so, this article explores the concept of normative orders and how they develop. This article then focuses on the transnational counterterrorism order and its thickening through the development of specialized institutions and new legal frameworks. This discussion offers insight into how international, domestic, and transnational criminal frameworks in the post-September 11 era have evolved to better facilitate sustained counterterrorism pressure on terrorist groups.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors track these developments and their capacity to mitigate information asymmetries, enhance transparency, and ultimately influence the use of police surveillance technologies in New York City.
Abstract: September 11, 2001 resulted in the drastic expansion of intelligence and surveillance capacities in the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and the NYPD has continued to adopt emergent surveillance technologies. These tools have investigative applications beyond counterterrorism and many worry their use is outpacing oversight and regulation. The transformations of the NYPD in the early 2000s were followed by major – if lagged – changes to the external oversight of police and surveillance tools, including the 2013 establishment of an Office of the Inspector General for the NYPD and the Public Oversight of Technology (POST) Act in 2020. This article tracks these developments and their capacity to mitigate information asymmetries, enhance transparency, and ultimately influence the use of police surveillance technologies in New York City.
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors identify the need for creative problem-solving training and designated creative thinking time to influence innovative intelligence capabilities, and recommend creativity training to facilitate creative thinking and action.
Abstract: Creativity, specifically creative problem solving, is often excluded from Homeland Security Enterprise efforts to train and develop their workforces. To determine if this lack of training was a key knowledge gap in the communities, we drew on organisational creativity literature. Using the personnel databases O*NET and Careers in the Military Database, we conducted a training needs assessment by identifying relevant job tasks, knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSA) that align with the creative process. More specifically, we sought to identify the need for creative problem-solving training and designated creative thinking time (e.g. red teaming) to influence innovative intelligence capabilities. Based on our findings, we recommend creativity training to facilitate creative thinking and action. Moreover, we outline situational and individual factors that will affect the transfer of the training, such as organisation environment, leadership, and creative self-efficacy. The impact of these recommendations will aid security, counterterrorism, and intelligence communities to efficiently detect and prevent emerging threats, as well as develop intelligence products to further support the Homeland Security Enterprise mission.