Showing papers in "National Bureau of Economic Research in 1996"

Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995

Abstract: In this paper we examine closely the financial events following the Mexican peso devaluation to uncover new lessons about the nature of financial crises. We explore the question of why, during 1995, some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. To this end, we ask whether there are some fundamentals that help explain the variation in financial crises across countries or whether the variation just reflects contagion. We present a simple model identifying three factors that determine whether a country is more vulnerable to suffer a financial crisis: a high real exchange rate appreciation, a recent lending boom, and low reserves. We find that for a set of 20 emerging markets, differences in these fundamentals go far in explaining why during 1995 some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while others were not. We also find that alternative hypotheses that have been put forth to explain such crises often do not seem to be supported by the data, such as high current account deficits, excessive capital inflows and loose fiscal policies.

Valuation of New Goods under Perfect and Imperfect Competition

Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) attempts to answer the question of how much more (or less) income does a consumer require to be as well off in period 1 as in period 0 given changes in prices, changes in the quality of goods, and the introduction of new goods (or the disappearance of existing goods). In this paper I explain the theory of cost-of-living indices and demonstrate how new goods should be included using the classical theory of Hicks and Rothbarth. The correct price to use for the good in the pre-intro- duction period is a `virtual' price which sets demand to zero. Estimation of this virtual price requires estimation of a demand function which in turn provides the expenditure function which allows exact calucation of the cost of living index. The data requirements and need to specify and estimate a demand function for a new brand among many existing brands requires extensive data and some new econometric methods which may have proven obstacles to the inclusion of new goods in the CPI up to this point. As an example I use the introduction of a new cereal brand by General Mills in 1989-Apple Cinnamon Cheerios. I find the virtual price is about 2 times the actual price of Apple Cinnamon Cheerios and that increase in consumer surplus is substantial. Based on some simplifying approximations, I find that CPI may be overstated for cereal by about 25% because of its neglect of the effect of new brands. When I take imperfect competition into account I find that the increase in consumer welfare is only 85% as high with perfect competition so CPI for cereal would still be 20% too high

Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education

Abstract: This papers examines the relationship between demographic structure and the level of government spending on K-12 education. Panel data for the U.S. states over the 1960-1990 period suggests that an increase in the fraction of elderly residents in a jurisdiction is associated with a significant reduction in per child educational spending. This reduction is particularly large when the elderly residents and the school-age population are from different racial groups. Variation in the size of the school-age population does not result in proportionate changes in education spending, so students in states with larger school-age populations receive lower per-student spending than those in states with smaller numbers of potential students. These results provide support for models of generational competition in the allocation of public sector resources. They also suggest that the effect of cohort size on government-mediated transfers must be considered in analyzing how cohort size affects economic well-being.

The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, starting with traditional interest rate channels, going on to channels operating through other asset prices, and then on to the so-called credit channels. The paper then discusses the implications from this literature for how central banks might best conduct monetary policy.

Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?

Abstract: The paper considers the role of limits upon the permissible growth of public debt, like those stipulated in the Maastricht treaty, in making price stability possible. It is shown that a certain type of fiscal instability, namely variations in the present value of current and future primary government budgets, necessarily results in price level instability, in the sense that there exists no possible monetary policy that results in an equilibrium with stable prices. In the presence of sluggish price adjustment, the fiscal shocks disturb real output and real interest rates as well. On the other hand, shocks of this kind can be eliminated by a Maastricht-type limit on the value of the public debt. In the presence of the debt limit (and under assumptions of frictionless financial markets, etc.), Ricardian equivalence holds, and fiscal shocks have no effects upon real or nominal variables. Furthermore, an appropriate monetary policy rule can ensure price stability even in the face of other kinds of real shocks. Thus the debt limit serves as a precondition for the common central bank in a monetary union to be charged with responsibility for maintaining a stable value for the common currency.

Do Budget Rules Work

Abstract: The design of budget rules and institutions, long a neglected area in public finance and macroeconomics, has recently been thrust to center stage by the debate over a balanced budget amendment and other deficit-reduction measures in the United States. This paper describes the existing evidence on how budget rules affect fiscal policy outcomes. It contrasts the `institutional irrelevance view,' which holds that budget rules can be circumvented by modifying accounting practices and changing the nominal timing or other classification of taxes and expenditures, with the `public choice view' in which fiscal institutions represent important constraints on the behavior of political actors. Several distinct strands of empirical evidence, from the U.S. federal experience with anti-deficit rules, from U.S. state experience with balanced budget rules, and from international comparisons of budget outcomes in nations with different fiscal institutions, suggest that fiscal institutions do matter. These results reject the institutional irrelevance view. The existing evidence is not refined enough, however, to provide detailed advice on how narrowly-defined changes in budget rules might affect policy outcomes.

A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services

Abstract: This paper contributes to research endogenizing multinational firms in general-equilibrium trade models. We attempt to integrate separate contributions on horizontal multinationals which produce the same final product in multiple locations, with work on vertical multinationals, which geographically fragment production by stages. Previously derived results now emerge as special cases of a more general model. Vertical multinationals dominate when countries are very different in relative factor endowments. Horizontal multinationals dominate when the countries are similar in size and in relative endowments, and trade costs are moderate to high. In some cases, foreign investment or trade liberalization leads to a reversal in the direction of trade. Investment liberalization can also lead to an increase in the volume of trade and produces a strong tendency toward factor-price equalization. Thus direct investment can be a complement to trade in both a volume-of-trade sense and in a welfare sense.

Incentives and Careers in Organizations

Abstract: This paper surveys two related pieces of the labor-economics literature: incentive pay and careers in organizations. In the discussion of incentives, I first summarize theory and evidence related to the classic agency model, which emphasizes the tradeoff between insurance and incentives. I then offer econometric and case-study evidence suggesting that this classic model ignores several crucial issues and sketch new models that begin to analyze these issues. In the discussion of careers in organizations, I begin by summarizing evidence on wages and positions using panel data within firms. This evidence is sparse and far-flung (drawn from industrial relations, organizational behavior, and sociology, as well as from labor economics); I identify ten basic questions that merit more systematic investigation. Turning to theory, I describe building-block models that address one or a few pieces of evidence, but focus on more recent models that address broad patterns of evidence.

Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?

Abstract: If nominal wages are downward rigid, moderate levels of inflation may improve labor market efficiency by facilitating real wage cuts. In this paper we attempt to test the hypothesis that downward real wage changes occur more readily in higher-inflation environments. Using individual wage change data from two sources, we find that about 6-10 percent of workers experience nominally rigid wages in a 10- percent inflation environment. This proportion rises to over 15 percent at a 5 percent inflation rate. We use the assumption of symmetry to generate counterfactual distributions of real wage changes in the absence of rigidities. These counterfactual distributions suggest that a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate reduces the fraction of workers with downward-rigid wages by about 0.8 percent, and allows real wages to fall about 0.06 percent faster. A market- level analysis of the effects of nominal rigidities, based on wage growth and unemployment at the state level, is less conclusive. We find only a weak statistical relationship between the rate of inflation and the pace of relative wage adjustments across local labor markets.

The Productivity of Nations

Abstract: Данная статья является предварительной версией (working paper) одной из наиболее цитируемых публикаций на тему экономического роста Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others? Вместе с тем, собственно предметом исследования стали не сами темпы экономического роста, а межстрановые различия в уровнях выпуска на одного работника Такой подход позволил авторам в рамках эмпирического анализа сконцентрироваться на переменных, слабо меняющихся во времени, и потому не оказывающих влияние на темпы роста, однако существенным образом предопределяющих различия в уровнях выпуска между странами Среди значимых факторов, объясняющих эти различия, авторы обнаружили институциональные, культурные и географические особенности стран, объединив их общим термином инфраструктура

Hyperbolic Discount Functions, Undersaving, and Savings Policy

Abstract: Studies of animal and human behavior suggest that discount functions are approximately hyperbolic (Ainslie, 1992). I analyze an economy with complete markets which is populated by hyperbolic consumers. I identify two ways in which this economy can be distinguished from an exponential economy. First, hyperbolic discounting predicts the empirical regularity that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is less than the inverse of the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Second, hyperbolic discounting explains many features of the policy debate about undersaving. The calibrated hyperbolic economy matches Bernheim's (1994) survey data on self-reported undersaving, and predicts pro-savings government interventions like capital-income subsidies and penalties for early withdrawal from retirement accounts. Hyperbolic consumers are willing to sacrifice 9/10 of a year's worth of income to induce the government to implement optimal revenue-neutral saving incentives.

Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements

Abstract: This paper emphasizes the range of factors which enter country calculations to seek regional trading arrangements. These include conventional access benefits, but extend to safe haven concerns, the use of trade arrangements to underpin security arrangements, and tactical interplay between multilateral and regional trade negotiating positions. In a final section, results from an earlier modelling effort by Perroni and Whalley are used to emphasize that non- traditional objectives may be quantitatively more important than traditionally analyzed objectives.

The determinants of the choice between fixed and flexible exchange-rate regimes

Abstract: Почему некоторые страны придерживаются политики фиксированного валютного курса, а другие устанавливают режим плавающего курса. Автор отвечает на этот вопрос с точки зрения политической экономии, опираясь в своих рассуждениях на теоретическую модель и эмпирические расчеты. В модели предполагается, что монетарные власти, минимизируя квадратичную функцию потерь, стремятся найти компромисс между инфляцией и безработицей. При этом сравниваются ожидаемые потери в условиях фиксированного и гибкого курса. Для эмпирической проверки используются панельные данные по 63 странам в период 1980-1992 гг. В качестве объясняющих переменных использовались показатели, отражающие степень политической нестабильности, вероятность того, что монетарные власти откажутся от поддержания курса на заданном уровне, а также показатель приоритета реальных целей (безработицы) над номинальными (инфляция) в денежно-кредитной политике. Регрессионный анализ позволяет подтвердить выводы, полученные на теоретическом уровне.

Wage Subsidies for the Disadvantaged

Abstract: Wage subsidies to private employers have often been proposed by economists as a potentially flexible and efficient method to improve the earnings and employment of low-wage workers. This paper lays out the basic economics of wage subsidies; examines issues arising in the design of alternative forms of wage subsidies; and reviews evidence on the effectiveness of recent U.S. wage subsidy programs and demonstration projects. Wage subsidies to employers to hire disadvantaged workers appear to modestly raise the demand for labor for those workers. Stand-alone wage subsidies (or employment tax credits) that are highly targeted on very specific groups (such as welfare recipients) appear to have low utilization rates and may (in some cases) stigmatize the targeted group. But new evidence based on an examination of changes in eligibility rules for the Targeted Jobs Tax Credit, the major U.S. wage subsidy program for the economically disadvantaged from 1979 to 1994, suggests modest positive employment effects of the TJTC on economically disadvantaged young adults. Policies combining wage subsidies with job development, training, and job search assistance efforts appear to have been somewhat successful in improving the employment and earnings of specific targeted disadvantaged groups.

Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow

Abstract: Do housing price fluctuations play an important role in the economic security of retirees, or is housing wealth just a sideshow to the determination of consumption and saving? Using panel data on saving from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and aggregate time- series data, I find that shifts in housing wealth do affect consumption and saving, especially for younger households. On the other hand, few elderly households appear to be tapping into their housing windfalls to finance retirement consumption. The precautionary saving approach can explain this puzzle. If housing wealth rises, households require less insurance against future contingencies, and will respond by spending more out of (nonhousing) wealth. But not every elderly household encounters a bad outcome requiring the liquidation of household equity. Hence the median elderly family will not actively spend housing windfalls. The theoretical and empirical results therefore suggest that housing wealth is not a sideshow.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security

Abstract: This paper analyzes the transition from the existing pay-as-you-go Social Security program to a system of funded Mandatory" Individual Retirement Accounts (MIRAs). Because of the high return on real capital relative to the very low return in a mature pay-as-you-go program, the benefits that can be financed with the existing 12.4 percent payroll tax could eventually be funded with mandatory contributions of only 2.1 percent of payroll. A transition to that fully funded program could be done with a surcharge of less than 1.5 percent of payroll during the early part of the transition. After 25 years, the combination of financing the pay-as-you-go benefits and accumulating the funded accounts would require less than the current 12.4 percent of payroll. The paper also discusses how a MIRA system could deal with the benefits of low income employees and with the risks associated with uncertain longevity and fluctuating market returns.

Does Economic Geography Matter For International Specialization

Abstract: There are two principal theories of why countries trade: comparative advantage and increasing returns to scale. Yet there is no empirical work that assesses the relative importance of these two theories in accounting for production structure and trade. We use a framework that nests an increasing returns model of economic geography featuring home market effects with that of Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek. We employ these trade models to account for the structure of OECD manufacturing production. The data militate against the economic geography framework. Moreover, even in the specification most generous to economic geography, endowments account for 90 percent of the explainable variance, economic geography but 10 percent.

What Do Bureaucrats Do? The Effects of Performance Standards and Bureaucratic Preferences on Acceptance into the JTPA Program

Abstract: Bureaucratic performance standards are featured in many proposals to increase efficiency in government. These standards reward bureaucrats on the basis of measured outcomes. The performance standards system created under the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) of 1982 is often cited as a successful prototype. Under the JTPA system, local training centers receive monetary rewards based on the employment levels and wage rates attained by their trainees upon completion of the program. Critics of the JTPA performance standards system argue that it creates an incentive for program managers to encourage case workers to `cream-skim' the most employable applicants into the program. We examine this issue by analyzing the determinants of acceptance into JTPA among applicants at a training center for which we have data on everyone who applied over a two year period. We find that case workers prefer to accept the least employable applicants, rather than the most employable as suggested by the cream-skimming story. This evidence indicates that concerns about cream-skimming in JTPA may be exaggerated. Instead, the performance standards system may operate as a countervailing force against the preferences of case workers. Using experimental data from the recent National JTPA Study, we also determine whether or not case workers accept those applicants with higher expected gains from the program. Our evidence only weakly supports this hypothesis.

Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis

Abstract: Since 1980, the U.S. net national saving rate has averaged less than half the rate observed in the 1950s and 60s. This paper develops a unique cohort data set to study the decline in U.S. national saving. It decomposes postwar changes in U.S. saving into those due to changes in cohort-specific consumption propensities, those due to changes in the intergenerational distribution of resources, those due to changes in government spending on goods and services, and those due to changes in demographics. Our findings are striking. The decline in U.S. saving can be traced to two factors: The redistribution of resources from young and unborn generations with low or zero propensities to consume toward older generations with high consumption propensities, and a significant increase in the consumption propensities of older Americans. Most of the redistribution to the elderly reflects the growth in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits. The increase in the elderly's consumption propensities may also reflect government policy, namely the fact that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits are paid in the form of annuities and that, in the case of Medicare and Medicaid, the annuities are in-kind and must, therefore, be consumed.

High-Income Families and the Tax Changes of the 1980s: The Anatomy of Behavioral Response

Abstract: The relative income gains of the affluent after the passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86), which sharply lowered tax rates at high income levels, are overstated by comparing cross-sectional slices using concurrent income definitions, but they are large nevertheless. Although an index of the demand-side factors affecting inequality throughout the income distribution can explain much of the increased high-income concentration until 1985, it cannot adequately explain the post-TRA86 spurt. Thus, TRA86 is likely to have been a principal cause of the large increase in the reported personal income of the affluent. A close look at the sources of the post-1986 increases in the reported individual income of high-income households suggests that much of it represents shifting of income -- for example, from the corporate tax base to the individual tax base -- and not income creation such as additional labor supply. This distinction is critical because knowing how much the reported individual income of a particular group of people changes in response to a tax change is not a sufficient statistic for evaluating adequately its revenue consequences, incidence, and efficiency.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Diffusion of General Purpose Technologies

Abstract: History and theory alike suggest that General Purpose Technologies (GPT's), such as the steam engine or electricity, may play a key role in economic growth. In a previous paper (Helpman and Trajtenberg, 1994) we incorporated this notion into a Grossman-Helpman growth model, and explored the economy-wide dynamics that a GPT generates. The present paper deals with the diffusion of the GPT over heterogeneous final-good sectors. We show that the gradual adoption of the GPT by each user sector generates a sequence of two-phased cycles, culminating in a bringing about a spell of sustained growth. We also analyze the welfare implications of the order of adoption, by way of numerical simulations. As a diffusion of the transistor (the first embodiment of semiconductors, the dominant GPT of our era), and seek to characterize both the early adopters and the laggards in terms of the parameters of the model.

The Effects of Income and Wealth on Time and Money Transfers between Parents and Children

Abstract: We use the 1988 PSID to study the effects of income and wealth on transfers of money and time between individuals and their parents as well as the effects of incomes of other relatives on these flows. We relate the relative incomes of parents and parents in-law to transfer amounts given and received by married couples. We also study how the relative incomes of divorced parents influence transfers. We find that money transfers tend to reduce inequality in household incomes and that time transfers are only weakly related to income differences. Richer siblings give more to parents and receive less. Among parents and parents in-law the richer set of parents is more likely to give money and less likely to receive money. The same is true of divorced parents. In contrast to the implications of simple exchange models of transfers, there is little evidence in the cross section or in the analysis using siblings that parental income or wealth raises time transfers from children or that time transfers are exchanged for money transfers. In the cross section and among siblings, the strong negative relationship between time transfers and distance from parents is not associated with a strong negative relationship between distance and money transfers. We discuss the implications of our results for alternative models of transfers.

Quality-Adjusted Prices for the American Automobile Industry: 1906-1940

Abstract: We push the span of hedonic price calculations for automobiles backwards towards the industry's birth. Most of the real change that occurred between 1906 and 1982 occurred between 1906 and 1940. During these years, hedonic prices fell at an average annual rate of 5%. The pace was brisker still during the first 8-12 years. Our measured declines can be decomposed into price and quality components. Our calculations suggest that 60% of the overall decline 1906-1940 was due to process innovation and only 40% to product innovation or quality change per se. Regressors representing mechanical systems matter in these calculations.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates

Abstract: Many authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We demonstrate that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. We also provide evidence that monetary policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's private information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.

Simulating the Privatization of Social Security in General Equilibrium

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic and efficiency effects of privatizing social security. It does so by simulating alternative privatization schemes using the Auerbach-Kotlikoff Dynamic Life-Cycle Model. The simulations indicate three things. First, privatizing social security can generate very major long-run increases in output and living standards. Second the long-run gains from privatization are larger if privatization redistributes resources from initial to future generations, the pure efficiency gains from privatization are also substantial. Efficiency gains refers to the welfare improvement available to future generations after existing generations have been fully compensated for their losses from privatization. The precise size of the efficiency gain depends on the existing tax structure, the linkage between benefits and taxes under the existing social security system, and the method chosen to finance benefits during the transition. Third, at least in the long run, privatizing social security is likely to be progressive in that it improves the well-being of the lifetime poor relative to that of the lifetime rich

Personal Retirement Saving Programs and Asset Accumulation: Reconciling the Evidence

Abstract: Over the past several years, we have undertaken a series of analysies of the effect of IRA and 401(k) contributions on net personal saving. Saver hetero- geneity is the key impediment to determining the saving effect of these plans We emphasize that no single method can provide sure control for all forms of heterogeneity. Taken together, however, we believe that the analyses address the key complications presented by heterogeneity. In our view, the weight of the evidence, based on the many non-parametric approaches discussed here provides strong support for the view that contributions to IRA and 401(k) represent largely new saving. Some of the evidence is directed to the IRA program, some to the 401(k) plan, and some to both plans. Several other investigators have used different methods to consider the effect of these retirement saving programs on personal saving and in some cases have reached very different conclusions from ours. Thus we have devoted particular effort to trying to reconcile the results, explaining why different approaches, sometimes based on the same data, have led to different conclusions. In some instances, we believe the limitations of the methods used by others have undermined the reliability of the results. Particular attention is devoted to a recent paper by Gale and Scholz [1994] that is widely cited as demonstrating that IRAs have no saving effect. Based on our analysis of the data used by Gale and Scholz, we find that their conclusions are inconsistent with the raw data and their formal model does not provide reliable information on the extent of substitution.

Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence

Abstract: Ansley Coale and Edgar Hoover were right about Asia. Rising fertility and declining infant mortality have had a profound impact on Asian savings, investment and foreign capital dependency since Coale and Hoover wrote in 1958. We argue that: Much of the impressive rise in Asian savings rates since the 1960s can be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth dependency burdens; Where Asia has kicked the foreign capital dependence habit is where youth dependency burdens have fallen most dramatically; Aging will not diminish Japan's capacity to export capital in the next century, but little of it will go to the rest of Asia since the rest will become net capital exporters, at least if demography is allowed to have its way. These conclusions emerge from a model which rejects steady-state analysis in favor of transition analysis, and extends the conventional focus of the dependency rate literature on savings to investment and net capital flows.

The Impact of Demographics on Housing and Nonhousing Wealth in the United States

Abstract: Equity in housing is a major component of household wealth in the United States. Steady gains in housing prices over the last several decades have generated large potential gains in household wealth among homeowners. Mankiw and Weil (1989) and McFadden (1993b) have argued that the aging of the US population is likely to induce substantial declines in housing prices, resulting in capital losses for future elderly generations. However, if households can anticipate changes in housing prices, and if they adjust their non-housing savings accordingly, then welfare losses in retirement could be mitigated. This paper focuses on two questions: (1) Are housing prices forecastable from current information on demographics and housing prices?; and (2) How are household savings decisions affected by capital gains in housing? We use metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level data on housing prices and demographic trends during the 1980's and find mixed evidence on the forecastability of housing prices. Further, we use data on five-year savings rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find no evidence that households engage in changing their non-housing savings in response to expectations about capital gains in housing. Thus, the projected decline in housing prices could result in large welfare losses to current homeowners and large intergenerational equity differences.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Why Are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65

Abstract: In most data sets of labor force participation of the elderly, an empirical regularity that emerges is that retirement rates are particularly high at age 65. While there are numerous economic reasons why individuals may choose to retire at 65, empirical models that have attempted to explain the age-65 spike have met with limited success. Interpreted another way, while many models would predict a jump in the hazard rate at age 65, the magnitude of the spike indicates excessive response given the economic considerations that retirees typically face. This paper considers the puzzle of why retirement rates are so high at age 65 and explores a variety of explanations.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries

Abstract: This paper attempts to explain the differences in inflation performance across countries. Earlier research has examined this topic, but it has considered only some of the factors that might be empirically important determinants of inflation rates. We consider the distaste for inflation, optimal tax considerations, time consistency issues, distortionary non-inflation policies and other factors that might be empirically important determinants of inflation performance. Overall, the results suggest that institutional arrangements - central bank independence or exchange rate mechanisms - are relatively unimportant determinants of inflation performance, while economic fundamentals - openness and optimal tax considerations - are relatively important determinants.