Showing papers in "National Institute Economic Review in 1985"
TL;DR: Unemployment in Britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the late 1950s and early 1960s to around 3 per cent today as mentioned in this paper. But what accounts for this astonishing increase?
Abstract: Unemployment in Britain has risen from around 2 per cent in the late 1950s and early 1960s to around 3 per cent today. What accounts for this astonishing increase?
297 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the roles of machinery and workforce skills in explaining comparative productivity performance was examined in a comparison of 45 matched firms in Britain and West Germany, where the average age of British machinery was not very different from that found in German plants.
Abstract: On the basis of interviews with management and factory floor employees at 45 matched firms in Britain and West Germany, this article examines the roles of machinery and workforce skills in explaining comparative produc tivity performance. The average age of British machinery was not very different from that found in German plants, but it was less technically advanced, was subject to more frequent breakdowns and breakdowns took longer to correct. Productivity was higher in Germany in each of our matched product groups and the importance of skills at all levels was apparent.
128 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the roles of machinery and workforce skills in explaining comparative productivity performance was examined in a comparison of 45 matched firms in Britain and West Germany, where the average age of British machinery was not very different from that found in German plants.
Abstract: On the basis of interviews with management and factory floor employees at 45 matched firms in Britain and West Germany, this article examines the roles of machinery and workforce skills in explaining comparative produc tivity performance. The average age of British machinery was not very different from that found in German plants, but it was less technically advanced, was subject to more frequent breakdowns and breakdowns took longer to correct. Productivity was higher in Germany in each of our matched product groups and the importance of skills at all levels was apparent.
114 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors trace differences in workforce skills between these two countries to differences in preparation at school, particularly in mathematics and vocational education, and particularly for those in the lower half of the ability spectrum.
Abstract: The way higher productivity depends on a workforce that is technically-skilled at all levels—from operators and foremen to senior engineers and directors of production—was examined on the basis of an interview-study of matched engineering firms in Britain and Germany in the last issue of this Review. The present article traces differences in workforce skills between these two countries to differences in preparation at school, particularly in mathematics and vocational education, and particularly for those in the lower half of the ability spectrum.
49 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro-economic model is discussed, and important changes are introduced into many central equations in the model.
Abstract: This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro- econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the model We argue that on grounds of both the underlying theory and the plausibility of the empirical results, this work is a significant advance in explaining dynamic macro-economic behaviour.
28 citations
24 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider a range of issues relating to the overall stance of fiscal policy and consider issues of principle which arise in the present economic environment given the present government's approach to economic policy.
Abstract: This paper considers a range of issues relating to the overall stance of fiscal policy. It considers issues of principle which arise in the present economic environment given the present government's approach to economic policy. It is not concerned with the present stance of policy per se, or with its rela tionship to the current conjuncture. The paper focuses on approaches to determining the appro priate size of the fiscal deficit, bearing in mind the interaction between this and the composition of the deficit.
24 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used three quarterly models, those of the London Business School (LBS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), and two annual models, the City University Business School and the Liverpool University Research Group in Macroeconomics (LPL), to illustrate the real wage debate.
Abstract: This article is an example of the type of exercise that is made possible by the existence of the set of UK models at Warwick. Using three quarterly models, those of the London Business School (LBS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and Her Majesty's Treasury (HMT), and two annual models, those of the City University Business School (CUBS) and the Liverpool University Research Group in Macroeconomics (LPL), it considers the use, and possible abuse, of such models of the UK economy to illustrate the real wage— employment debate.In UK models real wages and employment are determined jointly and the article shows that the sign of the association between these two variables depends ore the nature of the shock which causes real wages to change. A common method of analysis is to perturb the endogenous real wage directly and although the results are quantitatively similar to those where the change to real wages results from a supply-side shock to the labour market, it is argued that s...
19 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that the public should not judge budgets solely in terms of a single summary concept, surplus or deficit, and there is an undoubted demand for a single statistic which provides at least a rough-and-ready summary of the fiscal position.
Abstract: Most economists would doubtless reject the idea that policy makers or the public should judge budgets solely in terms of a single summary concept, surplus or deficit. Yet there is an undoubted demand for a single statistic which provides at least a rough-and-ready summary of the fiscal position. The attempt to specify such a single statistic has given rise to controversy for many years.
7 citations
5 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider two questions related to fiscal and monetary poticy in the United Kingdom: (i) How do shocks to the economy affect monetary growth; (ii) What effects do changes in the debt/income ratio have on the returns to financial assets.
Abstract: This paper considers two questions related to fiscal and monetary poticy in the United Kingdom.
The questions are as follows:
(i) How do shocks to the economy affect monetary growth?(ii) What effects do changes in the debt/income ratio have on the returns to financial assets?The first question has been previously in relation to the LBS model. The second question has become relevant now that attention is being directed to the possible long-run constraints on fiscal policy. We take the opportunity to study question (i) in response to recent developments of the LBS model. The most significant developments are firstly the incorporation of a model of the financial sector in the LBS model and secondly the ability to incorporate rational expectations into the determination of asset prices in financial markets.