Showing papers in "PSL Quarterly Review in 2000"

Critique of the neoclassical theory of growth and distribution

Abstract: The paper surveys the main theories of income distribution in their relationship with the theories of economic growth. First, the Classical approach is considered, focusing on the Ricardian theory. Then the neoclassical theory is discussed, highlighting its origins (Bohm-Bawerk, Wicksell, Clark) and the role of the aggregate production function. The emergence of a "Keynesian" theory of income distribution in the wake of Harrod's model of growth is then recalled together with the surprising resurgence of the neoclassical theory (following the contributions of Solow and Meade). But, as the paper shows, the neoclassical theory of income distribution lacks logical consistency and has shaky foundations, as has been revealed by the severe critiques moved to the neoclassical production function. Mainstream economic literature circumvents this problem by simply ignoring it, while the models of endogenous growth exclude the issue of distribution theory from their consideration. However, while mainstream economics bypasses the problems of income distribution, this is too relevant an issue to be ignored and a number of new research lines, briefly surveyed, try new approaches to it. JEL Codes: O41, E25, O33, B22

The neoclassical theory of growth and distribution

Abstract: The paper surveys the neoclassical theory of growth. As a preliminary, the meaning of the adjective "neoclassical" is discussed. The basic model is then sketched, and the conditions ensuring a stationary state are illustrated. The issue of the convergence to a stationary state (and that of the speed of convergence) is further considered. A discussion of "primary factors" opens the way to the "new" theory of growth, with endogenous technical progress. A number of extensions of the basic model are then recalled: two-sector and multi-sectoral models, overlapping generations models, the role of money in growth models. JEL Codes: O41, E25 Keywords: Distribution, Growth, Income Distribution, Income

Is the natural rate of growth exogenous

Abstract: In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the natural rate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side or demand side. It is shown for a sample of 15 OECD countries 1961-1995 that the natural rate of growth has been very responsive to the actual growth rate, and it is argued that for most countries demand constraints operate long before supply capacity is reached. JEL Codes: O41, O47

Market concentration and technological innovation in a dynamic model of growth and distribution

Abstract: This paper develops a post Keynesian macromodel of growth and distribution in which endogenous technological innovation plays a pivotal role. The innovationrate is made quadratic in market concentration, to capture a plausible neo-Schumpeterian non-linear influence of market structure on firms' propensity to innovate. Concentration is endogenous, though, since under neo-Schumpeterian competition the relation between market structure and technical change cuts both ways. Investment will then be non-linear in concentration, and the effect of changes in concentration on capacity utilisation, growth and distribution will depend on the level of concentration. Demand also plays a role, with capacity utilisation and growth rising with the wage share. The dynamic stability properties of the system will depend on the direction and relative strength of the technological innovation effects with respect to the demand ones, and on the relative bargaining power of workers and capitalists. JEL Codes: O41, E25, O32, L10

New competitive strategies of foreign banks in large emerging economies: the case of Brazil

Abstract: Financial relations have been deeply transformed in the 1980s and 1990s by deregulation and liberalization. Among the most affected by these changes has been the banking system. Domestic banks have generally lost the implicit protection given by regulatory barriers to entry. Until very recently, in most of the world, foreign banks had their range of operations limited by both regulatory and market factors in developed and developing countries alike. This has radically changed in the 1990s. Foreign banks previously content to hold marginal positions in domestic emerging markets started to pursue aggressive strategies of expansion. Competition among banks operating domestically is being intensified as a result, particularly in emerging economies large enough to support entry of new banking firms. We examine the case of Brazil, where, following the semi-crisis of 1995, a significant number of banks set up subsidiaries fighting for increasing market shares of the domestic market. The paper shows the ways these banks chose to enter the market and explores the perspectives for the domestic banking sector. JEL Codes: O4, O54, G21, O16, F23

Bank capital ratios in the 1990s: cross-country evidence

Abstract: This study aims at assessing empirically the determinants of changes in risk-weighted bank capital ratios in the 1990s in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and the US. Both bank-specific characteristics, factors at the banking industry level and the degree of undercapitalization are found to be relevant for bank capital ratios. The results suggest that in most cases either banks assess the risk of their portfolio as being higher than the outcomes generated by the Basel Capital Accord risk weighting scheme, or they need to take additional country- or bank-specific capital requirements into account when setting capital ratios. In all countries commercial banks face a downward pressure on their capital ratios due to an intensified competition. Finally, capital regulation seems to be effective in influencing bank capital ratios. JEL Codes: G21, G28 Keywords: Bank, capital ratios, 1990s, US, UK, EMU

Taxation and the household saving rate : evidence from OECD countries

Abstract: This paper analyzes anew the relationship between taxation and the household saving rate. On the basis of standard savings and tax revenue data from a sample of OECD countries, it provides compelling empirical evidence of a powerful impact of taxes on household savings. In particular, income taxes are shown to affect negatively the household saving rate much more than consumption taxes. JEL Codes: E21, H24, H31 Keywords: Consumption, Revenue, Saving, Tax, Taxation, Taxes

The long-run effects of low inflation rates

Abstract: Low price inflation is an official monetary policy target in many countries because of the positive effects it may generate on economic growth. However, if nominal wage rigidities exist, low price inflation may have a negative effect on economic growth. In this paper we test whether there exists a minimum level in the wage inflation ratefor a number of European countries. When the economy moves close to this wageinflation rate real effects become extreme. Low price inflation rates coincide with high unemployment rates. The estimation results show a significant minimum wageinflation rate for each of the countries, lying in the 1.98% to 5.32% range. JEL Codes: E31, E52 Keywords: Inflation, Monetary Policy, Monetary, Policy, Prices

Central banks in European emerging market economies in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper analyzes the institutional framework of central banks in ten Central and East European countries using the ECB as benchmark. It looks at the legislated objectives of these central banks, assesses the degree of political and functional independence and the status of their democratic legitimization and accountability. We find that while much progress has been made in making the statutes "Maastricht compatible," all of them will have to be adapted once again before EMU entry. The legislation provides for democratic accountability comparable to that of the ESCB. In recent years the enacted limitations of fiscal financing have become more binding. Rescue operations in the financial sector might be seen as encroaching the independence of the central bank. JEL Codes: P24, E58, N24 Keywords: Central banks, Europe, 1990s

Successes of trade reorientation and expansion in post-communist transition: an enterprise-level approach

Abstract: The article offers an approach to the westward reorientation of foreign trade by the post-communist economies of East-Central Europe at the micro--i.e. enterprise--level. Having presented the dynamics of reorientation and its theoretical/historical underpinnings, the writer then goes on to underline the surprisingly large number of microeconomic determinants behind the strong westbound export surge. The article starts with the most often cited factor, namely the distressed sale argument, and then shifts the focus to determinants that have received far less attention: an unusual extension of the "distressed sale" argument and another, more important one, namely the legacy of the oversized industrial sector and resultant availability of firms ready (or forced) to test their mettle on the world markets. The following section extends the list of determinants to foreign direct investment and the growing export activity of domestic de novo firms. The linkages between the determinants are also pointed out. The final section sums up the observations. JEL Codes: N74, N84, P33 Keywords: Foreign Trade, Trade, Trade reorientations, post-communist, East-Europe

Welfare systems, ageing and work: an OECD perspective

Abstract: This paper examines the scale of the demographic problem facing OECD economies and the labour market trends among older workers, considering the macroeconomic implications of welfare provision for ageing on living standards and fiscal balances. The nature and the scale of incentives for early retirement are then discussed, concluding that welfare systems in OECD countries will come under increasing pressure as the share of public pension payments on total welfare outlays could rise dramatically over the coming decades. The paper illustrates some of the recent OECD recommendations for responding to the challenges posed by ageing societies in the context of diverse social welfare systems and concludes that policies are urgently needed in a number of countries to pursue two fundamental objectives: increasing the average number of years individuals spend active in the labour force and raising the sources of provision for an adequate retirement income. JEL Codes: J14, H53, I38 Keywords: Ageing, Demographics, Older Workers, Pension, Welfare

Foreign competition and disintermediation: no threat to the German banking system?

Abstract: The German financial system is characterized by low degrees of penetration by foreign commercial banks and of (bank) disintermediation compared to, for instance, the United States. This could be attributed to the fact that universal banking in Germany creates implicit barriers to entry. Yet, regulatory and informational differences which are unrelated to universal banking could be responsible for the observed difference. This paper provides a stylized theoretical model of the banking industry, which suggests that market segmentation and limited market entry can be due to a number of factors, including information costs. Preliminary empirical evidence does not provide clear evidence for the hypothesis that universal banking is the reason for the observed differences in financial systems. JEL Codes: G21 Keywords: Germany, banking system

The industry effects of monetary policy and their welfare implications

Abstract: Economic theory provides at least two explanations for differential regional effects of a common monetary policy. The traditional money view focuses on regional differences in industry mix. Alternatively, the more recent credit view emphasizes differences in financial structure. This paper aims to make two contributions. First, building on the work by Carlino and DeFina (1998), I estimate impulse responses of sector earnings to monetary policy shocks for regions of the United States. An analysis of variance shows that the sector effect dominates the regional effect, providing further evidence for the importance of the industry mix. Second, the paper addresses the welfare implications of industry effects of monetary policy. One would expect industries suffering disproportionately from the impact of monetarypolicy to compensate their employees and shareholders. The US evidence on compensating wage and return differentials is, however, mixed. JEL Codes: E52, L16 Keywords: Monetary Policy, Monetary, Money, Policy

The financial benefits of the IMF

Abstract: The IMF provides loans to countries in financial distress at a relatively low interest rate. In this article we calculate how much the seven largest debtors to the IMF have saved on interest payments during the Asian crisis and its aftermath. We explain how the IMF can charge these low interest rates and at what cost for creditor countries. The conditionality attached to the use of IMF resources in the form of policy measures reduces moral hazard behaviour; we argue that this is a better instrument than raising interest rates on IMF loans. JEL Codes: F34, F32, F33, O16

The transmission of monetary shocks in the euro area: a V AR analysis based on euro-wide data

Abstract: Using area-wide data, we simulate the responses of inflation and real output following monetary shocks in the EMU. We find that short-term interest rate shocks have a significant impact on real activity, but hardly on prices. M3 shows a perverse short-term response to a monetary contraction, which should be taken into account when interpreting the reference value of money growth (the "first pillar" of the Eurosystem's monetary strategy). Shocks to the effective exchange rate have a rapid impact on prices, money growth and real activity. As the exchange rate itself is hardly affected by monetary policy shocks, though, there is little scope for an exchange rate policy. Rather, these findings underscore the important role that the exchange rate should play as an information variable within the "second pillar" of the monetary strategy. JEL Codes: N1, E52, F36