Showing papers in "Statistics and Economics in 2019"

Информационно-коммуникационные технологии как основа развития информационного общества: Россия в системе международных статистических индикаторов

Abstract: The purpose of the study. The first goal of the study is a comparative analysis of general indicators of information and communication technologies (ICT) development and the principles of their construction, identifying the possibilities of their use for cross-country comparisons. The second goal is cross-country comparisons based on selected indicators and an assessment of the place and prospects of Russia in the context of ICT development. The objectives of the study are due to the growing worldwide interest of the international scientific community, business and government structures to the development of information and communication technologies and the formation of the information society. The Okinawa Charter on the Global Information Society, adopted in 2000, states that information and communication technologies in the 21st century will be one of the most powerful forces and their impact will change people’s lifestyles, ways of learning and working, as well as ways and possibilities for governments to interact with citizens. In this regard, the actual issue is the formation of an adequate information base for studying information and communication technologies not only as an independent object, but also as the most important factor in the formation of the functioning of the digital economy and the formation of the information society. Materials and methods. For the study, the methods of multidimensional classification, analysis of variation, as well as a tabular method of visual presentation of the research results were used as statistical tools. For the processing of primary information, application packages of statistical analysis were used: Microsoft Excel and STATISTICA 10.0. Results. Comparison of the indicators revealed the need for their further structuring in order to ensure the comparability of statistical analysis for the largest possible set of countries. Comparison of countries and assessment of the place of Russia was carried out on the basis of the proposed system of indicators using the methods of multidimensional classification, analysis of distributions and studying the dynamics of the indicators. The variety of tasks solved in the study of information and communication technologies and their components predetermined the presence of a large number of generalizing indicators used in cross-country comparisons, as well as a variety of approaches, both to building indicators themselves, and to forming data collection systems that ensure their calculation and comparisons. Considerable scientific and practical interest is the formation of a system of statistical indicators of ICT development, providing multi-level comparability at both country and national levels. Conclusion. According to the results of a statistical research, Russia’s positions on the accessibility infrastructure characteristics and the use of information and communication technologies are revealed. The country’s lagging behind in terms of the development of both physical and information infrastructure not only from economically developed countries, but also from some BRICS and CIS countries, overcoming of which will make it possible to solve the tasks defined by the Information Society Development Strategy of the country.

Метод экспертных оценок в форсайт-исследованиях

Abstract: Purpose of the study. The main goal of this research is to identify key aspects of expert assessments and offer high-quality recommendations for their improvement. Materials and methods. Foresight is built on the basis of expert assessment method, includes: active formation of the image of the future instead of its probabilistic prediction, focus on identifying key development priorities, participation in the study of key stakeholders, the relationship with the management decision-making process. The methods of analysis used in the work suggest methods of theoretical research in the form of analysis and modeling. In the course of the research, the following tasks were solved: firstly, the Expert model was formed based on the necessary and sufficient criteria for selecting respondents to the foresight study; secondly, the main characteristics of the Delphi method for consensus decisions in expert groups were identified. The research work considers various sources of information, which became the basis for the further development of the Expert model, based on an integrated approach based on the statistical, sociological and economic fields of science. Results. On the basis of bibliometric analysis, important criteria for the selection of experts were highlighted: a practical component, a theoretical component, a creative component, an assessment of belonging to a field of study, an assessment of work in a study, an adjustment of results. The relevance of the selection of an expert greatly influences the result of the foresight, therefore, there is a need for a balanced selection of respondents to the study. Foresight studies have a distinctive feature from other areas in that the result is the achievement of consensus between experts in the subject area. Decision makers are drawn from three areas of activity business, government, science. In this regard, criteria for the selection of respondents were formed, which imply the necessary and sufficient conditions. The necessary criteria are understood as such parameters, without which the characteristics of the expert do not allow the respondent to be an expert for this study. A sufficient condition for the participation of the decision maker in the foresight analysis implies such selection criteria, which are complementary characteristics of the expert, which do not need to prove that the expert is a suitable expert for a specific study. As a result, four necessary criteria for the selection of experts for groups were identified, as well as individual sufficient criteria for each group. The process of carrying out the Delphi method is considered, the advantages and disadvantages are determined, on the basis of which the resulting indicator is proposed the foresight research reliability index. Conclusion. The method of selection of experts allows a comprehensive approach to the problem in the field of formation of expert groups based on the introduction of digital technologies that improves the qualitative characteristics of foresight research. The confidence index, as a result indicator, determines the objectivity of the study based on expert assessments.

Оценка восприятия цифровой медицины молодежным сегментом потребителей

Abstract: The purpose of the study is to assess the perception of various aspects of digital medicine by the youth segment of consumers, the degree of readiness to consume its services and the level of involvement in this process. The last few years have become a turning point for medicine, if we talk about the number of new directions, emerging techniques and the introduction of digital technologies. Digital medicine uses information and communication technologies to solve health problems of different groups of patients. Its capabilities help doctors and patients to analyze the development of the disease, calculate health risks. The segment of medical gadgets of digital medicine offers consumers a variety of products. Artificial intelligence and wearable devices are becoming common means of organizing the treatment process and monitoring the human condition. Young people, as a rule, more actively perceive any novelties and include еthem in their daily life. Is it really so? If we consider Russian young consumers, since foreign experience indicates their rather high interest. Materials and methods of research. The presented study of the perception of the youth audience and readiness to use digital medicine is based on the methodology, proposed by the venture Fund Rock Health, dedicated to digital health. This Fund conducts research, aimed at improving the quality, safety and accessibility of modern medicine. The study is conducted by online survey of consumers who have access to the Internet at home, at work or through cell phones. The questionnaire was adapted for the Russian target audience. The results of the research of the consulting company Accenture, which regularly studies the trends in the consumption of medical technologies with the use of artificial intelligence, robotics and gadgets for self-diagnosis, were used as a factual basis. Data of research of the analytical company CB Insights, forming annual forecasts about the changes in healthcare, and also materials of joint research of the company Econsultancy and the developer of IT technologies for medicine Adobe are considered. The article presents some data of the report of the American company Change Healthcare, which has a strategic partnership with Google Cloud. Results of the research on the one hand, show the high involvement of young people in the field of digital technologies. The survey includes 380 respondents, 89% are smartphone users and 83% regularly visit social networks. However, they are quite wary of digital medicine, requiring the control of personal data. They trust their doctor more than mobile apps and Internet resources; they are reluctant to buy wearables, little understanding of what is telemedicine. They are limited to searching for medical information on the Internet only about services, doctors, medicine and treatment technologies to find out general information. Conclusion. The content analysis shows that digital medicine is becoming a popular trend in the development of modern healthcare. New technologies are being introduced, the key areas of development of which are focused on the Internet of things for medicine (IoT), artificial intelligence, mobile apps, genome editing, telemedicine, blockchain projects and cloud computing. The Russian market is slowly developing. Young consumers are not yet active in the consumption of digital health services and products. The key reasons for this are low awareness of the benefits and concerns about the security of the personal data.

Оценка уровня развития транспортного комплекса мегаполисов

Abstract: Purpose of the study. The study focuses on issues of the level assessment of transport system development of large cities. Despite the wide variety of studies on this issue, there is currently no universal approach to assessing the level of development of the transport system at megalopolises. The present study aims to create a tool for a comprehensive assessment of various aspects of urban transport development that are important for all categories of transport users, and to provide a comparative analysis of the world’s leading megacities in terms of transport development based on the proposed methodology. Materials and methods. In the study, the authors apply an approach related to the construction of integral indexes and ratings of cities based on the values of these indexes. In the calculations of the index, the authors use statistical data from authoritative open sources and information systems of national and municipal government. Results. Based on the results of the world practice analysis, the authors propose the Urban Transport Development Index developed in order to compare the level of transport system development in various cities. The Index provides an opportunity to identify the weaknesses and strengths of cities, to find reserves for the further improvement and development of recommendations in the field of transport policy on this basis. The Index consists of four sub-indexes: the availability of transport services for the urban population, the quality of transport services, road traffic security and the ecological impact of transport, and freight logistics performance. The Index reflects the main aspects of urban transport development and shows the views of different categories of population on the level of transport services. The paper examines the level of transport system development for 2010, 2015, 2016 and 2017 of a group of comparable cities, which includes Hong Kong, London, Mexico, Moscow, New York, St. Petersburg, Singapore, Istanbul, Tokyo and Shanghai. The results showed that Tokyo and London have occupied the leading positions during the period under review. For the seven years Moscow, St. Petersburg and Shanghai have showed the best dynamics of the Index. Conclusion. The proposed method allows both to evaluate the effectiveness of individual regulatory measures known in the practice of other cities, and to simulate their impact on the transport system of the city. The paper concludes with recommendations for further development of cities’ transport systems.

Statistical assessment of the impact of climate change on social and demographic processes (on the example of the Yaroslavl region)

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze current global and regional climate changes, as well as a statistical assessment of the factors that cause climate change, on the one hand, and an assessment of the impact of climate parameters on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes using the example of the Yaroslavl region, on the other hand. The study was conducted on the example of the Yaroslavl region and covers the period from 1922 to the present. First of all, the article analyzes the regulatory documents on ecology and climate change. The insufficient attention of federal and local authorities to solving the above problems, the lack of regional strategies to prevent climate change and reduce its negative consequences, which leads to the increased socio-economic risks, is noted. In order to identify factors causing climate change, a correlation and regression analysis was performed. Regression models of the dependence of crop yields on the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation were constructed. The statistical base of the study was compiled by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Yaroslavl Region, as well as GISMETEO data. Processing of the research results was carried out in Microsoft Excel and SPSS. During the study, it was found that in the Yaroslavl region there is an increase in average annual and average monthly air temperatures, as well as a slight increase in precipitation, which mainly occurs due to an increase in rainfall in spring and early summer. The anthropogenic factors that cause climate change, namely the burning of fossil fuels, an increase in industrial production, an increase in the number of vehicles, as well as a change in land use and deforestation, are identified and statistically substantiated. As a result of the study, it was found that changes in climatic parameters have an impact on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes, namely: – climate change has a positive effect on agricultural production. According to studies, an increase in average air temperature is a positive factor for the agricultural sector of the Yaroslavl region, as crop yields will increase with increasing air temperature. These trends need to be considered when choosing certain varieties of crops and selecting fertilizers. Increasing the level of management and the transition to more modern technologies will have a greater effect. The efficiency and productivity of agriculture, as well as the food security of the region, will depend on these decisions; – it was found that hydro meteorological factors have a negligible effect on the growth rate of gross regional product and food production; – a statistical study showed that in the Yaroslavl region the effects of climate change on demographic processes and human health are currently insignificant. The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and can serve as a basis for further research in the field of studying the impact of climate change on socio-economic and demographic processes in the Yaroslavl region.

The forecasting of operating results of fish processing enterprises: problems and methodological approaches to their solving

Abstract: В статье рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты и результаты апробации прогнозирования и планирования объемов реализации продукции рыбоперерабатывающего предприятия в зависимости от природно-климатического фактора (температуры воздуха) на примере группы компаний «Арт-рыба» г. Вологды. Выявлена зависимость объема потребительского спроса на продукцию рыбоперерабатывающего предприятия от температурного режима окружающей среды. Описана методика построения регрессионной модели между временными рядами исследуемых показателей и порядок расчета прогнозных уровней дневной выручки. Построена и апробирована эконометрическая модель зависимости динамики дневной выручки от реализации рыбопродукции от средней температуры воздуха. Получены прогнозы уровня выручки от реализации с учетом влияния динамики средней дневной температуры внешней среды и недельного цикла ее колебаний. Представленная методика моделирования и прогнозирования уровня дневной выручки позволит на практике обоснованно принимать решения для определения плановых объемов закупки продукции для реализации на краткосрочный перспективный период, что является актуальным в условиях быстроменяющегося потребительского рынка. Цель: состояла в выявлении и моделировании зависимости динамики дневной выручки от реализации рыбоперерабатывающего предприятия от колебаний температурного режима окружающей среды и разработке методики ее прогнозирования. Материалы и методы: в ходе исследования использовались в комплексе методы эконометрического моделирования на основе временных рядов, включающего построение трендовых моделей, моделей с циклической компонентой, регрессионных моделей. Исходными данными для настоящих исследований послужили показатели результатов деятельности группы компаний «Арт-рыба» г. Вологды, полученные из базы данных указанных предприятий. Показатели температурного режима внешней среды получены из Дневника погоды официального сайта прогноза погоды Gismeteo. Результаты: Исследование потребовало достаточно глубокого изучения характера и особенностей динамики показателя дневной выручки и подготовить данные для моделирования. В ходе исследования закономерностей взаимосвязанной динамики показателей выручки и температуры воздуха были получены ряд важных выводов, которые в последствии и определили методику построения регрессионной модели и порядок расчета прогнозных уровней. Выявлено наличие устойчивой обратной корреляции между трендом дневной выручки и температурой воздуха. При этом анализ результатов прогнозирования по полученным моделям показал, что точность прогнозов, как точечного, так и интервального, при ослаблении силы проявления корреляционной зависимости между признаками не снижается. По результатам корреляционно-регрессионного анализа предложена методика прогнозирования уровня дневной выручки для рыбоперерабатывающих предприятий, которая позволит обоснованно принимать решения для определения плановых объемов закупки продукции для реализации на краткосрочный перспективный период, что является актуальным в условиях быстроменяющегося рынка потребительской продукции. Заключение: Как показали исследования, потребительский спрос на продукцию рыбоперерабатывающих предприятий эластично реагирует на изменение температуры внешней среды. Этот факт позволил разработать методологические подходы к прогнозированию уровня дневной выручки, что крайне необходимо для принятия обоснованных решений по планированию объемов закупа и выпуска продукции на краткосрочный перспективный период. В современных условиях риска и неопределенности возможность планировать производственную и финансовую деятельность для перерабатывающих предприятий пищевой промышленности является особо актуальной.

Рынок жилой недвижимости: тенденции и перспективы

Abstract: Purpose of the study . The purpose of this research is modeling of the current trends for changing the cost of the residential real estate. The price on the housing market is one of the most difficult indicators for the analysis, as it reflects trends in the commodity and financial markets, labor market, reacts to political, social and economic changes. On the housing market, it is possible to determine the level of income of the population and their ability to accumulate by the price if we consider the regional level, then it is possible to define degree of attractiveness of this or that region, etc. Development of the housing market promotes improvement of a demographic situation and development of social stability of the society. Materials and methods . In the analysis of dynamics of changing the cost of the residential real estate, the methodological base is important. In this research, the methods of descriptive statistics for the description of the existing trends to change the average cost of housing and development of mortgage lending were presented and assessment of structure of price differentiation in regions is carried out. With the methods of identification and the analysis of the top trend, the adequate model, describing a trend functionally was constructed. For the evident representation of results of the research, tabular and graphic methods of visualization of data were used. For the purpose of the solution of objectives the package of the IBM SPSS Statistics application programs was used. Results . Results of the research allowed to define the main trends of changing the cost of the residential real estate in the Russian Federation on primary and secondary markets and to analyze dynamics of granting mortgage loans. The reasons for significant regional price differentiation of housing are considered. Creation of model for changing the average cost of housing on primary and secondary markets is carried out and forecast estimates to change the price for 2019 are received. С onclusion . The conducted research showed that there is a steady trend of growth of cost for housing both on primary and secondary markets. It should be noted that in the nearest future the increase in rates of gain of the price in connection with the legislation change since July 2019 is possible, first, it would concern primary market, but in a consequence, it will be reflected also on the secondary market.

Разработка и использование модели когнитивной системы для решения задач целенаправленного поведения

Abstract: The aim of the study is to formulate a formal definition of the cognitive system on the basis of a simplified representation of human cognitive activity and on this basis to develop methods for engineering design of the cognitive system model. The process of cognition is modeled as the interaction of several structures of the human personality. The main structures that directly implement the process of cognition are the subconscious mind and the consciousness interacting with it. Using the technique of engineering design of the cognitive model, the architecture of the intellectual system using the cognitive planning mechanism of control actions is developed. An agent-oriented approach was chosen to implement the cognitive mechanism of control actions formation. The algorithm of formation of purposeful behavior adaptation plans of intellectual system is investigated. The knowledge base of the intelligent system is built with the adaptation of purposeful behavior. The method of research is the application of the principles of the theory of dynamic automatic control systems to the simplified processes of cognition and the synthesis of algorithms and technical devices on this basis. The development of an intelligent system of purposeful behavior was conducted on the basis of an agent- oriented approach. To describe the mechanism of purposeful behavior, an integrated approach to knowledge representation is used, combining the advantages of logical and network methods. The main results of the work are the development of a formal definition of a cognitive system in the form of an automatic control system in the state space. The subconscious is modeled by the space of states of the cognitive system, formed as a result of interaction with the outside world. The process of cognition is presented in the form of evaluation by consciousness of the elements of the space of states, which is called the space of evaluations. Interaction with the outside world is modeled both in the form of management of the outside world, and in the form of its informing. On the basis of these representations the structure of the intellectual system realizing the cognitive mechanism of planning of control actions is developed. The architecture of multi-agent system of control actions formation for purposeful behavior is presented. The knowledge base for the formation of adaptation plans of purposeful behavior of the intellectual system is developed. For the key procedures of the cognitive system functioning, the concepts of optimal estimates of state vectors and optimal control process are introduced, which allow to synthesize the best in a certain sense algorithms and technical devices. The use of this technique allowed developing a structure of an intelligent system that implements cognitive mechanism for the planning of control actions; the multi-agent system architecture of formation control actions for goal-directed behavior; knowledge base of intellectual system for planning control actions. The intelligent system was developed using multi-agent technology. Subsystems were formed in the form of separate functional formations-multi-agent systems.

Денежные доходы как основной индикатор уровня жизни населения России

Abstract: Purpose of research The relevance of the research topic is associated with the presence of a number of controversial issues arising in the statistical study of monetary incomes of the population of the country and regions These issues include: comparability of monetary income in dynamics, assessment of differentiation of population by income and consumption, comprehensive assessment of regional differences in the income level The aim of this work is to study the monetary income of the population of the Russian Federation as a universal characteristic of the living standard Materials and methods The information base of the study was the official statistical materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, including the materials published by ROSSTAT in the “Statistical review” in early 2019 Along with traditional statistical methods, the study also used the method of assessing structural differences, the method of index analysis of the differentiation of the population by monetary income at both the Federal and regional levels Structural shifts in consumer spending between groups with different income levels were identified Results In Russia, from 2014 to 2017, the annual decline in real disposable income ranged from one to 3%, with an average annual growth rate of nominal income of 5% In 2010–2018, more than 47% of income was concentrated in 20% of the population of the Russian Federation with the highest incomes The 20% of the population with the lowest income accounted for less than 54% of the total Inequality in the distribution of monetary income leads to the formation of consumer structures that differ in social groups with different levels of income In the study, an integral coefficient of structural shifts of Gatev was used to estimate these differences As a result of its calculation, significant structural differences between the groups of the population of Russia with the highest and lowest incomes were established A study was conducted on the level of monetary income of the population of 14 regions of the Volga Federal District in 2018 For all regions of the Federal District, three local indices were calculated on three indicators: average per capita monetary income of the population, the average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees of organizations and the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence minimum Their arithmetic mean value representing the index of monetary incomes of the population was determined Conclusion The results of the calculations allowed identifying three groups of entities in the district, which differ significantly in terms of cash income of the population The problems of differentiation of monetary income in the Volga Federal District, identified in the study, are typical for many regions of Russia In order to solve the problems, concerted actions of the regional government and the state, aimed at improving the living standard of the population of the country are necessary

Methods of evaluation the quality of teaching in higher education institutions

Abstract: Purpose of research. The article describes an approach to assessing the quality of education at universities. Innovative processes in higher education increase the requirements to the quality assurance system for bachelors, masters, specialists and postgraduates. Such a system includes not only educational processes, but also the results of the quality of education. This problem is relevant because the quality of students’ training influences the formation of professional competencies and the demand on the labor market directly. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the quality of training for different groups of experts.Materials and methods. The method of quality assessment and the results of the study, based on the proposed pyramid model of quality assessment with the details of the components, included in its composition, and the designation of their values for evaluation are considered in the paper. A method of assessing the quality of education at universities, based on the criteria of quality of education, the method of expert evaluation, formalization and algorithmization of the process is proposed. The generalized assessment of the group of experts is formed on the basis of average values. Formalization of assessment begins with the fact that in the built pyramid of quality of training each criterion is assigned a variable that reflects its assessment. The indicator, which is characterized by the average values of experts' assessments, is an assessment of the quality of training. Setting the relationship between quantitative and qualitative value is carried out using the established quality scale, which is based on the Likert scale. For a clear understanding of how the conclusion about the degree of consistency of experts by Kendall method is formed, the situation is considered when experts are asked to rank the criteria by significance, that is, to assign a place in the rating for each criterion. The overall assessment of the quality of education can be obtained based on a questionnaire that should be conducted on a specific topic and for all participants in the educational process, followed by an analysis of the survey results. Each expert group is offered a list of questions on a specific topic. To solve this problem, we should use the method of expert assessments, which is part of the theory of decision-making and expert evaluation - the procedure for obtaining an assessment of the task based on the opinion of experts, followed by decision-making.Results. The interest of the employer in carrying out this study is to increase the effectiveness of the quality of training, the formation of professional competencies, as well as an objective comprehensive assessment of the quality of training. As a result of the study, the pyramid of criteria and the model of evaluation of the quality of education allow to determine the value that reflects the qualitative characteristics of the learning process in higher education.Conclusion. The introduction of this model will improve the quality of the educational process in the University, to prepare highly qualified specialists in demand in the labor market, meet the needs of socio-economic development of modern society.

Анализ развития нефтегазового сектора в современных условиях

Abstract: Purpose of the study. This study examines the state of companies of oil sector based on the analysis of dynamics and relationship between basic financial indicators, characterizing the activities of oil companies; it identifies factors affecting the companies’ efficiency, such as return on sales (ROS) and productivity. The work is based on dynamic, structural, correlation analysis of analytical and statistical information on processes occurring in this area of economic activity. Materials and methods. Statistical data and analytical information on oil sector companies serve as the information base of this study. Statistical methods of information analysis (comparative analysis, analysis of time series, correlation, and regression analysis) represent the methodological base of research. Results. The authors analyzed the development trends of the global and Russian oil and gas sectors. The last two decades have been marked by changes in the global oil market that were caused by fluctuations in the price of oil and oil products and with the rise and fall in the price of Brent crude oil per barrel. The paper considers dynamics of financial indicators of Russian oil companies. An analysis of the data on the revenue of the largest Russian companies in ruble and dollar terms over the last 10 years has revealed a significant difference in the dynamics of these indicators. The authors performed ROS and oil price profitability correlation as well as correlation between the price of oil, the exchange rate and the profitability of oil companies. Conclusion. The oil and gas industry is an essential sector of the economy that heavily promotes to the socio-economic development of our country. Revenues of the oil and gas sector contribute to the Russian GDP and are a major component of the budget. There are two ways to calculate revenue of oil companies – in ruble (dollar terms) and impact of RUB/USD exchange rate. The sharp changes in the exchange rate of the last decade have advanced significant changes in the revenue of Russian oil companies. In this study, the total revenue (in dollar terms) was calculated as the ratio of revenue in rubles to the average annual exchange rate of the corresponding period. In general, the disastrous results of 2015 and 2016 led to a decrease in the average growth rates of dollar and ruble revenue, as well as profit and profitability. The authors performed a correlation analysis of return on sales and oil prices, which revealed an almost total absence of correlation between these indicators. Oil prices and exchange rates have a negligible effect on the profitability of oil companies. An inverse correlation is observed between the RUB/USD pair and the oil price per barrel. It is concluded that the cost of oil and the exchange rate have little effect on the profitability of oil companies. Since the oil and gas complex makes a very significant contribution to the development of the country’s economy, it is advisable to analyze its development trends on a regular basis. Based on the results of the economic and statistical analysis of financial indicators, it is possible to identify the main development directions of the oil and gas industry, evaluate positive and negative processes, and determine further prospects.

Миграция высококвалифицированных специалистов из России: методика оценки и тенденции

Abstract: The aim of the research is to develop a methodology and assess the cross-border flows of HQs from Russia (permanent and temporary labor migrants), taking into account the peculiarities of the legislative conditions established by the host country (the criterion of the entry channel), on the example of the United States and South Korea. Materials and methods . The focus is on the analysis of legal regimes of entry in terms of the identification of the category of HQs and the calculation of their number using a situational approach. The study used general theoretical methods and statistical methods: analysis of the dynamics of absolute and relative values. The information and statistical base of the study was made up of data from the Russian State Statistics, data from the statistical Agency – Eurostat, data from the US State Agency for Citizenship and Immigration, data from the Korean Statistics Agency KOSIS, data from the Headhunter survey. Results : – Three criteria have been developed on the basis of which the evaluation of the number of migrants-HQs from Russia can be made. These are the following: the criterion of the entry channel; the criterion of income and the educational criterion. The features of each criterion and the possibility of its application to estimate the number of HQs who left the country are specified. – Identified the boundaries of the category of persons included in the HQs in accordance with the visa regimes of the USA and South Korea. This identification has distinctive features in each case and is determined by the level of development of the country for which the calculation of the number of HQs, who left the country, in this case – for Russia. – The estimation of the dynamics of the number of HQs, who left Russia to the United States and South Korea, based on the criterion of the channel of entry, that is, in accordance with the legal conditions of entry of this category of persons in each country separately. Conclusion . The article deals with the methodological problems of accounting for the migration of Highly Qualified Specialists from Russia, analyzes the volume and dynamics of their flows to individual countries: the United States and South Korea. Estimates of the number of HQs who have emigrated from Russia to the United States and South Korea, have been calculated based on the identification of this category of persons in accordance with legislative modes of entry for different specialists, established in these countries, and taking into account the peculiarities of determining the HQs contingent for Russia. If the US law provides for a separate entry procedure for HQs, and the calculation of their number is not difficult, the legislation of South Korea does not have special types of visas for HQs, so their identification and calculation of the number is carried out by allocating a range of visas, which were used for the persons entering the country, representing the category of HQs for Russia. The peculiarity of the approach used in the work is also that the number of HQs, both in the US and in South Korea, includes persons who have entered for reasons of transfers within companies. Calculations similar to those presented in this paper should be made for a number of other countries – migration partners of Russia, which will make it possible to obtain an overall estimate of the number of HQs who left Russia and to assess the loss of human capital.

Внешняя трудовая миграция в Российской Федерации

Abstract: Purpose of the study. A problem of assessing international labor migration in the past twenty years is a very topical issue in many countries around the world. The main problem of the study of labor migration is the lack of full and reliable information about this phenomenon. The main objective of this study is to assess the possibility of statistical assessment of external labor migration in the Russian Federation. Materials and methods. The article provides an overview of the international basic documents in the field of the organization of labor statistics of migrants, and also defines the concepts of labor migration and foreign employees from the point of view of international and Russian legislation. The sources of information were the data of the summary information on migration records of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, as well as microdata on the form 5-PERSONAL INCOME TAX of the Federal Tax Service of Russia. The main methods, used in the study are: methods of analysis and synthesis, methods of data measuring and aggregating, methods of working with microdata, analytical indicators of the dynamics, graphical and tabular method. Results and conclusion. Based on the study, several conclusions can be drawn. First, in the Russian Federation there are objective administrative sources of data on legal external labor migrants. Secondly, these sources are not harmonized and it is necessary to carry out methodological work on the harmonization of data and the construction of time series on the number of external labor migrants. Also, these services need to provide access to their information system to the Federal State Statistics Service to compile data on external labor migrants in various socio-demographic sections. Third, then the legal external labor migration to the Russian Federation increases every year and in 2017 amounted to about 108 million people, the main source countries are post-Soviet countries, and the high-ranking subjects of attraction are the cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Moscow Region.

Методическое обеспечение оценки вклада трудовой миграции в инклюзивное развитие России

Abstract: Purpose of research . To offer theoretical and methodological tools for assessing the contribution of external labour migration to inclusive development. Methods. The study used methods of statistical, econometric analysis, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as General theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main information sources for the study were the data of the official website of the Federal state statistics service, as well as the data of the Unified interdepartmental information and statistical system. Results. The main results of the study are as follows: – Development of a theoretical two-circuit model of migration flow regulation with an emphasis on attracting qualified personnel to the industry. – Econometric results recorded the feedback of migration with economic growth and indicators of inclusive development – manufacturing, high-tech products and innovative exports in the Russian regions. – Results were also obtained, indicating a weak regulation of migration processes in the Russian regions, the effectiveness of which is fixed at the level of 25% out of 100%. – For the inclusive development of the Russian regions, thresholds were obtained for: attracting qualified personnel to the manufacturing industry up to 32% of the total number of workers in the field, the regulation of migration and economic processes by state institutions should be in the area of responsibility at 75% against 25%, the HDI in the regions should be at the level of 93% of 100%. – Threshold values are allowed to form and to work out the forecast of development for the Sverdlovsk region for the perspective till 2025 Conclusion. In General, according to the study, it was concluded that it is necessary to change the course from attracting low-skilled migrants to qualified ones, to strengthen the role of state institutions to regulate migration processes, as well as to increase the level of human capital in Russia. For further economic development, qualitative changes in human capital, industrial development, diversification of the national economy and the development of the country’s scientific and technological potential are needed.

Возможности статистической методологии в изучении экономической безопасности региона

Abstract: Economic security, following the physical protection and security rapidly broke into the life of modern domestic society. This is a huge, very theoretically capacious section of the management system and at the same time a variety of practical activities. As the state of any economic system, characterized by the ability to withstand any negative encroachment from any subject, institution, other systems, social environment, etc., both economic and financial security is estimated, in fact, a polygamous system of indicators on all aspects of financial and economic activity. Purpose: therefore, the purpose of this scientific work, defined as the improvement of information support structures, decision-making in relation to economic security, fully meets the needs of management science and practice. Materials and methods: At the same time, all the methods, necessary for the statistical study of economic and financial security are used in the work: at each stage, an extensive block of statistical tools is involved, represented by the methods of the general theory of statistics and mathematical statistics, including multidimensional groups – cluster analysis, correlation and regression methods. The official materials of the state statistics and Internal Affairs Bodies of the Russian Federation, as well as the official statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Moscow Region Government were used to perform practical calculations. Results: A key aspect of this research work is related to the selection and formation of a set of statistical indicators, which in the interconnection and addition gave a complete comprehensive picture of the existing relationships and established patterns. These are demographic and resource indicators, and the results and efficiency of the economic complex. The use of the designated statistical tools allowed obtaining such results as justification of analytical capabilities and approbation of statistical methods in the study of economic security of the Moscow region; formation of clusters, consisting of homogeneous municipal districts of the Moscow region, designated as clustering units; calculation of relative analytical indicators; construction and interpretation of regression models. Conclusion: the complex of the obtained results and conclusions, as well as the scientifically based algorithm of statistical tools application, tested in the work, are undoubtedly an important information component in the management of economic and financial security not only in the Moscow region, but also in any region, both in the Central Federal district and in the whole central Russia.

Determination of the main factors of the gross regional product level by econometric modeling methods for the totality of regions of the Russian Federation

Abstract: Цель исследования состоит в выявлении факторов, определяющих уровень валового регионального продукта, с помощью построения эконометрических моделей. С точки зрения экономической теории объем валовой добавленной стоимости региона зависит от наличия ресурсов, эффективности использования ресурсов, уровня платежеспособного спроса для потребления произведенной валовой добавленной стоимости, уровня экспорта, структуры экономики региона. В статье путем построения эконометрических моделей с различным набором факторных признаков были выявлены наиболее существенные и статистически значимые факторы, определяющие уровень валового регионального продукта. Материалы и методы. Эмпирической базой исследования послужили официальные данные Федеральной службы государственной статистики за 2016 год. В качестве статистической совокупности как объекта исследования рассматривалась совокупность субъектов Российской Федерации, причем изучались как полная совокупность субъектов, так и совокупности субъектов с уровнем валового регионального продукта менее и более триллиона рублей. Метод исследования – эконометрическое моделирование валового регионального продукта на основе пространственных данных по субъектам Российской Федерации. Параметры моделей множественной линейной регрессии в абсолютных величинах и в логарифмах оценивались методом наименьших квадратов. Для проверки нулевых гипотез был принят пятипроцентный уровень значимости. Интервальное оценивание параметров моделей проводилось с учетом стандартных ошибок, состоятельных в условиях гетероскедастичности. Качество моделей определялось коэффициентом детерминации, средней относительной ошибкой аппроксимации, тестом Рамсея, проверяющим нулевую гипотезу об отсутствии пропущенных переменных в модели. Практическая реализация исследования проводилась в программном продукте RStudio. Результаты. Построены восемь качественных моделей множественной линейной регрессии. Две модели построены по общей совокупности субъектов Российской Федерации: 1) модель в абсолютных величинах с тремя количественными признаками и одним качественным признаком, характеризующим группу субъектов по уровню валового регионального продукта; 2) трехфакторная модель в логарифмах. Две модели построены по совокупности субъектов с валовым региональным продуктом менее триллиона рублей: 1) модель в абсолютных величинах с семью количественными признаками, пять из которых оказались статистически значимыми; 2) четырехфакторная модель в логарифмах. Четыре двухфакторные модели были построены по совокупности субъектов с валовым региональным продуктом более триллиона рублей. Заключение. Во всех построенных моделях наиболее значимыми факторами уровня валового регионального продукта являются: а) фактор основного капитала (среднегодовая остаточная стоимость основных фондов); б) фактор платежеспособного спроса (выраженный одним из следующих показателей: социальные расходы бюджета, суммарные доходы населения, фонд оплаты труда); в) фактор уровня финансовых ресурсов (выраженный объемом среднегодовых остатков средств на рублевых счетах юридических лиц и сальдо доходов и расходов предприятий и организаций). При построении эконометрических моделей статистически незначимыми оказывались факторы эффективности использования ресурсов (фондоотдача, производительность, рентабельность), факторы, характеризующие объем внешнеэкономической деятельности региона, и доля добывающих производств. Экономику регионов в 2016 году можно охарактеризовать как экономику экстенсивного типа, ориентирующуюся на использование внутренних капитальных и финансовых ресурсов.

Статистический анализ трудовой составляющей конкурентоспособности Амурской области

Abstract: The purpose of the study is a statistical analysis of the labor resources of the Amur Region as one of the components of the region’s competitiveness. Materials and methods. To conduct a statistical analysis of the region’s labor resources, statistical methods were used, such as calculating absolute and relative dynamics’ indicators, average values, structure indicators, comparative analysis, graphical analysis method, as well as a general theoretical analysis method of Russian literary sources. The main research method was dynamic analysis. To assess the competitiveness of the region, the rating method was used. The study is based on statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, as well as the Territorial Authority of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Amur Region. In this research, the works of authors are presented: Vlasova V.I., Zemlyanukhina S.G., Shunina V.I., Shelomentseva M.V., Motrich E.L., Ryzhova N.P., Zhuravskaya T.N., Mishchuk S.N., Danchenko E.V., Ryazantseva S.V., Polevoy N.M., Ponkratova L.A., Tsarevskaya E.A., Koroleva S.I., Novikova I.V., Reimera V.V., Rychkova E.S., Dyachenko V.N., Lazareva V.V. and others. Results. The statistical analysis of the labor component of the competitiveness of the Amur Region made it possible to identify the unfavorable demographic situation in the region, manifested in the annual decline in the labor force in the region. In this case, migration loss leads to a population decline. It is important to note that the share of labor in the total population of the region is increasing every year. At the same time, this increase is higher for men than for women. The employment rate of the population of the Amur region at the age of 15–72 years is increasing every year. Perhaps this trend indicates a decline in the standard of living of the population of the region, which forces the population in old age to engage in economic activity. Confirmation of this fact is a decrease in unemployment in the region. Another trend indirectly indicating a decrease in household income is a 3.3-fold increase in employment among the elderly from 60 to 72 years. The largest number of labor resources is still engaged in trade. Assessment of the competitiveness of labor resources in the Amur region showed their inefficient use in the region. In the Far Eastern Federal District, the region is in the last but one place. Conclusion. The competitiveness of the region’s economy is determined by many factors, among which the labor potential occupies a special place. One of the most important tasks of successful socio-economic development of the region is to achieve the most efficient use of the potential of labor and business activity of the population of the region. It is possible to improve the use of labor resources in the region by creating new jobs, manufacturing products with high added value, increasing the level and quality of life of the population, creating the appropriate infrastructure for the life of the population of the territory. In the context of a reduction in the number of labor resources in the region, it is necessary to look for reserves to replenish them. In the increase in the retirement age of the population, attention should be paid to the elderly population as one of such reserves. In addition, taking into account the border position of the Amur region, we should think of the reasonable use for foreign labor in the region. The development and implementation of an effective policy of attracting older people and foreign citizens to work will achieve a balance in the formation and use of the labor potential of the region.

Оценка уровня жизни населения Тамбовской области

Abstract: Purpose of the study. To assess the standard of living of the population of the Tambov region through statistical methods. Materials and methods. The study used the methods of analysis of the composition and structure, the calculation of absolute and relative indicators of dynamics, average values, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as the general theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main information sources for the study were the data from the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service, its territorial office in the Tambov region, as well as the data from the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. In addition, the works of such authors as R. Zhukov, M. Malkina, N. Zotkina, S. Ignatova, E. Sadovaya, V. Sautkina and others were analyzed. Results. The main results of the study include the following: – Over 6 years (from 2012 to 2017) in the Tambov region, the largest share of the population, namely 23.0% in 2012 and 27.1% in 2017, had an average per capita cash income of 15 to 25 thousand rubles; – In 2012, the average per capita income of a resident of the studied region was most often met for 16,381.5 rubles (fashion value), and in 2017 – 18,561.0 rubles; – In the Tambov region from 2012 to 2017, the average absolute deviation of the studied indicator from the average in Russia is 5434.1 rubles; – The purchasing power of money incomes of the population has decreased for almost all food and non-food products; – The main sources of monetary incomes of the population of the Tambov region in 2017 are the wages of employees and receipts from social benefits (their share in the income structure is more than 20%); – The structure of the budget expenditures of the population of the Tambov region in 2017 is as follows: the purchase of goods and payment for services amounted to 77.5; mandatory payments and fees - 7.7%; real estate purchase - 1.9%; growth of financial assets - 12.9%; – The size of the average per capita monetary income of the population is inversely related to the unemployment rate of the region. Conclusion. In general, summing up the study, we can draw the following conclusion. For a number of indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population of the Tambov region, there is a positive trend, for example, an increase in the average per capita cash income of the population. Another positive trend was found: an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and average per capita income. However, despite this, in our region it is lower than the average in Russia. Half of the population has incomes less than 17,730 rubles, and the most common income is in the amount of 18,561 rubles, which is significantly lower than the average for the Tambov region.

Adaptive multichannel detection-resolution of stochastic signals in conditions of parametric prior uncertainty

Abstract: The purpose of the study is to improve the quality indicators of adaptive multichannel detection-resolution-measurement parameters of stochastic signals under parametric a prior uncertainty.Materials and methods. The methodology for the synthesis of signal detectors of various structures, taking into account various factors, is used to achieve the goal. This makes it possible to exclude from the expression for estimating the signal power the terms due to “colored” internal noises and an uncorrelated background. The tools of correlation analysis, adaptive Bayes approach, criterion of generalized likelihood ratio, methods of calculating its logarithm are also used. Results. In this paper, the problems of synthesis of adaptive multichannel detection-resolution algorithms for stochastic signals of various structures under the influence of intense noise interference are considered. An integral element of the detection task is a joint assessment of the intensity of the useful signal and the correlation matrix of interference. This problem is effectively solved for highintensity signals, and the nonstationarity of the internal noise of the receiving uncorrelated background of the interfering signals is not taken into account. A multi-channel receiving system consisting of a number of independent spatially separated elements that form a linear antenna array is considered. The width of the spectrum of the received signals should be considered sufficiently narrow, so that the delay of the signals at the antenna aperture can be neglected. This provision can significantly improve the performance of detection and resolution of stochastic signals in the background of noise interference. Based on the analysis of a finite discrete sample of complex amplitudes of received oscillations, a detection problem was solved, which is formulated as a problem of checking statistical hypotheses regarding distribution parameters. The detection algorithm is reduced to a comparison with the likelihood ratio threshold, and the threshold level value is determined by the selected optimality criterion and for the Neumann-Pearson criterion remains dependent on the power of interfering oscillations.Conclusion. The presented detector possesses higher characteristics of detection and resolution of stochastic signals in comparison with the known ones. It can be shown that an important property of the obtained statistics is the stabilization of the probability of false detection. This is achieved by normalizing the noise power at the output of the adaptation device. In addition, the resulting algorithm is invariant to the form used for its calculation of the correlation matrix of interference. If we take into account that an uncorrelated background will be added to the internal noise power, with a large number of noise jammers, a significant improvement in the detection performance has been achieved.

Исследование организационной структуры предприятий ритейла и образования методами статистического анализа

Abstract: The purpose of the study. The purpose of the research is to define a previously developed theoretical evolution model of an organizational structure, that is based on the hypothesis that the two types of organizational structures, consecutive and parallel, succeed each other, undergoing quality changes with the growth and development of organisations, though pertaining properties which determine the structure characteristics and provide a sufficient growth of organizations’ efficiency. Following the results of the authors’ previous research, it was hypothesized that the growth of an organization during a transition from one to the other type of organization structure follows either intensive or extensive pattern and is defined by the type of the transformation. Materials and methods. The study analyzed the retail trade sector, with isolated branches that distinguish this type of organizational structures, and educational institutions. The authors believe that organizations of similar types possess similar (consecutive and parallel) organizational structures. Groups of similar objects were identified by the cluster analysis used for grouping basic data. Following this, the results of cluster analysis were defined and key factors for patterns of organizational development were selected by the principal component analysis. Also, the Objectives Tree method was applied to gauge the effect of the types of educational services on the performance of private educational organizations and their structure. The research analyzed the data obtained from the database of commercial organizations of Czech Republic. Results. In general, the proposed model of the evolution of an organizational structure in retail business was redefined, and the outcomes of the conducted analysis allow defining the following: – when transitioning from the parallel to the consecutive organizational structure, the growth can be described as intensive, and while the consecutive model transitions to the parallel organizational structure the growth follows the extensive pattern; – development of retail business is defined by the three key factors: size of an organization, its performance efficiency and lifetime. The cluster analysis of educational organisations revealed seven clusters. After analysis of average values of variables, these clusters can be grouped in five. These outcomes led to the additional research with Objectives Tree, which showed that both small and large educational organisations employ their certain typical features of educational services. A similar pattern describes certain types of educational services in the organisations of different lifetime. Conclusion. The outcomes of the cluster analysis of commercial organisations of two sectors of Czech Republic and their further analysis confirmed the suggested hypothesis and matched corresponding theoretical evolution models of organizational structures, the results also showed intensive growth when transitioning from the parallel to the consecutive organizational structure and extensive growth when the transition changes from the consecutive to the parallel organizational structure. The alternating patterns of consecutive and parallel structures, as well as suggested gauging of the transition effectiveness will allow owners and management staff to efficiently maintain sustainable development of commercial organisations.

U.S. consumer price index in the second half of XX century: calculation strategy and ways of its changes

Abstract: Цель представленного исследования предполагает выявление траектории развития и трансформации индекса потребительских цен США во второй половине XX как практические оцениваемого показателя. Материалы и методы. Изучение исторического развития методики расчета индекса потребительских цен осуществляется на основе методических документов Бюро статистики труда США и его теоретико-практических исследований, публикуемых в Monthly Labor Review. Основным методом данной работы является историко-описательный подход. Результаты. Обобщение информации об индексе потребительских цен США в рамках пяти пересмотров методики его расчета во второй половине XX века реализовывалось согласно тем этапам, которые представляет сегодня Росстат для расчета национального индекса потребительских цен. На первом этапе анализируется динамика числа населенных пунктов, включенных в наблюдение за потребительскими ценами, а также изменение принципов их отбора. На втором этапе рассматриваются принципы отбора пунктов продаж потребительских товаров и услуг. На третьем этапе описывается набор товаров и услуг, включенных в наблюдение за потребительскими ценами, и динамика его состава. На четвертом этапе обобщаются принципы непосредственной регистрации цен, а именно, их частота в разных типах населенных пунктов и для разных типов товаров и услуг. На пятом этапе рассматриваются источники и ограничения сбора информации для формирования весов, необходимых для расчета индексов цен на высоких уровнях агрегации. На шестом этапе структурируется методика непосредственного расчета средних цен на товары и услуги и индексы цен на них и рассматриваются траектории ее трансформации. Заключение. В результате определены направления развития методики расчета индекса потребительских цен США, которые могут быть рассмотрены как альтернативные варианты решения проблем при расчете индексов цен других стран. Среди направлений следует выделить увеличение выборок населенных пунктов и наборов товаров и услуг, расширение возможностей вероятностного подхода, оформление структуры классификации товаров и услуг, равная периодичность обновления весов и создание системы индексов потребительских цен.

Инвестиционный потенциал субъектов профессионального спорта

Abstract: Purpose of the study. The introduction of financial discipline rules by the Union of European Football Associations started a new stage in the development of the football industry. According to the UEFA statistical report in 2017, football clubs for the first time reported a total profit of more than 600 million Euros, while a few years earlier the total losses of clubs representing the highest European football divisions were 1.7 billion Euros. This fact indicates a possible change in the investment attractiveness of sports clubs. The purpose of this study is to assess the presence of the investment potential of the football industry as a possible object of capital investment. Materials and methods. The study analyzed the data obtained from the official statistical sources, including a comparative UEFA report for 2017 on the licensing of clubs “Landscape of European Club Football”, normative legal acts regulating public relations in the field of professional sports, publishing in periodicals and the Internet, illustrating the practice and problems of professional sports development, as well as statistical data from the portals www.stoxx. com and www.investing.com. The study applies such methods of scientific cognition as a method of statistical and economic analysis, comparison, analogies, synthesis, as well as the method of measuring and aggregating data, the graphical and tabular method. Results of the research. When considering the shares of professional sports clubs as objects of capital investment, it is advisable for investors to pay attention to the functional type of assets that such organizations possess and the degree of diversification of their activities. The structure of non-current assets and the share attributable to tangible assets - sports infrastructure and other objects, is an important factor affecting the specific risks inherent in the activities of sports subjects, which allows to compensate losses incurred as a result of not achieving the goal set for the team for the season due to revenues from other activities that affect the investment attractiveness of the club. Conclusion . Based on the results, we can draw the following conclusions. The football industry has significant revenue growth potential. The increase in the financial profitability of professional sports subjects is accompanied by a rise in the stock index quotes, which accumulates the shares of European public football clubs. The comparative analysis carried out in the research indicates the attractiveness of these financial instruments as an investment object. However, such investments are characterized by a high degree of risk due to the specificity inherent in the professional sports industry. From the total number of factors affecting the exchange rate fluctuations of football clubs' shares, one can single out the most significant indicators such as the outcome and significance of the match, the nature of the tournament, and the sports (physical) form of the team.

Development of statistical classifications to study the content and structure of the primary real estate market

Abstract: Statistical study of the primary real estate market is always associated with the problem that the object is in a constant, and very intense change, both in quantitative terms and in its internal content. Therefore, the issues of constant adaptation of statistical methodology in relation to the primary real estate market are relevant continuously. Among the tasks that are constantly in the field of statistical science and practice in relation to the primary real estate market are the following. First, a critical analysis of the content of the modern primary real estate market, which should allow to identify its fundamental features as an object of statistical research, to systematize the economic relations of the subjects of this market segment for a comprehensive statistical analysis of its functioning and development in any region of Russia. Secondly, it is the construction of analytical classifications of the primary real estate market, systematization of criteria for their construction, which should allow for a qualitative analysis of the structure of this market segment in the modern market economy. Third, the continuous improvement of the system of statistical indicators of the primary real estate market, which should be constantly supplemented by various blocks of indicators, the use of which will link the development of the primary real estate market with indicators of the standard of living of the population and socio-economic development of a particular region on the basis of the formation and ordering of its various subsystems, which will increase their consistency with indicators of living standards and socio-economic development. To Develop the theory and statistical methodology of the complex study of the primary real estate market in terms of the development of criteria for the division of the object into homogeneous groups by typological characteristics and the construction on their basis of statistical classifications necessary for the structural analysis of the primary real estate market. To obtain scientific results in this article, General scientific methods of cognition, such as scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, are used, since it is a question of dividing a single whole into typologically homogeneous complexes, the organic relationship between which ensures the integrity and unity of the studied object – the primary real estate market. In addition, the use of the statistical grouping method is considered throughout the work, as it is an applied application of typological criteria. The main classification features of economic assets traded in the primary real estate market of the region are Substantiated and formulated. The development of criteria for the typological division of the object allowed to build statistical classifications necessary for a comprehensive analysis of the structure and structural changes in the primary real estate market. In the scientific article deals with the problematic aspects of a statistical study of the primary real estate market in parts of its etymology on the basis of clear criteria against which to understand the quality and properties of the traded on its economic assets, to build a statistical classification. All this is a step in the first stage of the statistical study in the sequence that is classically considered by the General theory of statistics. Statistical classifications and groupings by typological features precede the science-intensive substantiation and application of complex mathematical and static methods for factor analysis and forecasting of primary real estate market indicators.

Dependence of suicide frequency rate on the use of non-office hours

Abstract: Suicide is a social phenomenon, which depends on the living conditions of the population. The existing and changing socioeconomic conditions influence people’s daily routine. This fact enables us to consider daily life as a suicide factor. The main method to study everyday life is the time budget. It is quite accurate indicator of people’s lifestyle and changes in their behavior at work (office hours), welfare and recreation (non-office hours).The previous analyses have shown that the time spent taking care of the family members, volunteering and being involved in recreational and cultural activities are considered the factors significantly reducing suicide rate. However, the stability of correlation between the suicide frequency rate and the time spent on welfare and recreation remains unclear. The same concerns the significance of every single correlation coefficient.The work aims to determine the stable nucleus of hierarchy for off-work daily activities, which influence the suicide frequency rate, as well as the close and far peripheries of the hierarchy nucleus. The methodology of the research is based on the correlation analysis of the panel data and the national approaches to identifying the nucleus of certain processes as a set of sustainable properties emerging in different interactions.As a result of small sampling in correlation analysis of suicide frequency rate and the use of time we applied non-parametric methods. The sources of data include the World Health Organization and EUROSTAT. The latter provides consistent, comparable and detailed data on average time consumed by one surveyed, by one participant and the degree of employee’s involvement in the framework of Harmonized European Time Use Surveys (HETUS). The first wave of HETUS 2000 was implemented by 15 European countries in the period from 1998 to 2006. The second wave of HETUS 2000 was implemented by 18 European countries in the period from 2008 to 2015.The meaningful analysis of coefficient matrices of Spearman and Kendall and scattering diagram made it possible to identify the activity hierarchy connected with suicide frequency rate for all the employed population (males and females). The research revealed that the core of the hierarchy for the employed people in general and males in particular is watching TV and video, which is positively interconnected with suicide frequency rate. This activity accounts for most of the time. The nucleus is relatively stable due to high level of engagement (over 80%). The core of the hierarchy for the employed women is housekeeping excluding cleaning activities in the house, which is positively connected with suicide frequency rate, and common (cooperative) activities negatively connected with suicide frequency rate. The nucleus is relatively stable due to high level of engagement (over 55%).The obtained interconnections and their directions are validated by other research outcomes. Meanwhile, they are more reliable, stable and detailed. The nucleus of activity hierarchy for the employed women has dual controversial nature and represents the factors reducing and increasing the risk of suicide. Close and far peripheries of the nucleus for the employed people and employed males contain factors reducing suicide risk, which opens up the potential by forcing watching TV and video at least to the close periphery. At the same time the potential hazard is found at the edge of close and far peripheries of the hierarchy nucleus represented by suicide risk factors only. For the employed women the threat is more obvious, since the close and the far peripheries of the nucleus are represented by suicide risk factors.

Оценка неравномерности развития регионов РФ по социально-экономическим ресурсным составляющим

Abstract: In the state strategy of the economic security of the Russian Federation the increased differentiation of regions and municipalities on the level and pace of socio-economic develop-ment is indicated as the main challenges, as well as the insufficient funding of industrial production, a weak innovation activity, lagging behind in the development and implementation of new and emerging technologies, increasing differentiation of the population by the income level, lack of labour resources, reduced quality and accessibility of education, health care and, as a result, the decline in the quality of the human capital. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system of integral indicators of resource components of socio-economic potential of the regions of the Russian Federation based on a legitimate, credible and accessible statistical data for the evaluation of their development unevenness. Materials and methods. Resource potential of the region is being considered as a collection of six groups of socio-economic indicators: fixed funds, financial and investment resource, labour resource, science and innovation resources, information resource and social resource. Each group includes indicators that are directly related to the possibilities of production of goods and services. In accordance with the methodological approaches of the resource capabilities evaluation of the region on the basis of integral indicators the principles of completeness, adequacy, accessibility, universality and formalization of the indicators are used. Evaluation of a group of indicators and all indicators of groups as a whole is made according to the values of integral indicators of reduction or exaggeration in comparison with the reference values of the resource components. Various indicators in the group have a different level of im-pact on the gross regional product that is taken into account in assessing their weight indicators. Time series values of the resource components in each group correlate with the time series values of the gross regional product, the coefficients values of pair correlation are used to recalculate them into weighting coefficients. Formulas for evaluating the individual indicators in the group are developed, integral indicators of the group of resource components and integral indicators of the resource potential of the region as a whole. Results. Given the significant differentiation of regions of Russia according to various objective factors, it is considered appropriate to compare regions within Federal Districts. For the Central Federal District, the Moscow region is taken as the benchmark for comparison, and relative levels of reduction in the resource components of other regions are calculated relative to the level of indicators of its resource potential. Analysis of the data shows that the highest level of resource reduction components of the Ivanovo region is observed in the resource group of science and innovation – 77.1 %, resources of the fixed funds, financial-investment and labour resources are equal the value of this indicator – from 42.3% to 45.4 %. The integrated indicator of relative resource reduction components in the Ivanovo area totaled 41.9 %. Conclusion. Using statistical data for the Ivanovo and Yaroslavl regions as examples, calculations of integral indicators are carried out, which demonstrate the possibility of assessing the regional development unevenness by their resource component of socio-economic development.

Измерение экономического неравенства: проблемы, факты и оценка

Abstract: Purpose of research. The differentiation of the population in terms of welfare is part of the reality of the modern society and becomes the subject of acute debate. There is a need for a comprehensive assessment of the level of economic inequality and poverty to further substantiate the mechanism of coordination of activities to address the problems of their reduction. The joint use of monetary and non-monetary approaches allows achieving the goal of the study – a comprehensive and objective statistical assessment of the level of economic inequality and poverty of the Russian population. Materials and methods. The information base of the study was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as materials of analytical and scientific reports “Report on inequality in the world 2018”, “Poverty and income inequality in Russia and abroad”, “Russian society after the presidential elections – 2018: a request for change”, etc. Monetary indicators of economic inequality were used as statistical tools: decile coefficient of funds and Gini coefficient and non-monetary (subjective) approach. The subjective approach to poverty assessment is based on the data of the sample survey of household budgets in 2018. Results. A comparative analysis of economic inequality on a global scale shows that there are significant cross-country differences in income inequality, ranging from lower levels in Europe to high levels in the Middle East. Russia is one of the countries with a strong stratification of the population into rich and poor, where the value of the upper decile is 46% of the national income. The analysis of the dynamics of monetary indicators of economic inequality in the Russian Federation showed their increasing trend over the period from 1995 to 2018 and exceeding the established thresholds. According to the data of 2018, the value of the decile ratio of funds is 15,5 – that is, it is so many times the average income of the rich population exceeds the income of the poor. Gini index value of 0,41 for the same period indicates that the expected income difference between the two randomly selected income pairs will be 82% of the average income. The results of the non-monetary (subjective) approach to assessing economic inequality and poverty showed that the financial situation of 34,4% of households is unsatisfactory (incomes are barely enough for food, buying clothes and paying for housing and communal services are difficult). Even by 53,9% of households noted the lack of funds for the purchase of durable goods. Conclusion. The current situation with the increasing disproportion in the distribution of income of the population of Russia testifies to the active process of stratification of society. The results of the study showed excessive inequality in income of the population of the Russian Federation and the concentration of national wealth in the hands of the “upper” part of the first decile. The subjective approach to poverty assessment confirms the social stratification of society: more than 88% of Russians consider themselves to be poor.

Identification of trends in the decline in US income over the past five decades

Abstract: The aim of the work is to test the well-known prediction of Karl Marx about the tendency to reduce the income of the proletariat under capitalism. The United States has been selected as the object of study as an advanced capitalist country with a relatively weakly developed public sector of the economy compared to other advanced capitalist countries and relatively small social transfers. In this work, by income reduction, we mean a massive phenomenon, involving at least 10% of the population and lasting for at least 10 years. The cyclical nature of the capitalist economy leads to sharp fluctuations in the income of the population, because of which problems arise during data processing: the downward trends can only be detected at sufficiently large intervals of time. Considering this, as research methods were the study of the largest possible amount of heterogeneous data. Direct data on the income of various statistical units, adopted in American statistics families, households, individuals, persons, direct data on wages, as well as indirect data on quality of life – long-term changes in average people height, life expectancy, specific number of prisoners were reviewed in this paper. All studied sources confirm the assumption of a long-term (approximately since 1969) decrease in the income of the majority (> 50%) or at least a significant proportion of the US population. All data presented in the article are the estimates below. In fact, the share of the population subject to a decrease in income is higher, and the depth of the fall in income is greater. The consumer price indices, used in the processing of data do not take into account the greater susceptibility of income of the poor to the influence of inflation; the indices do not take into account the hidden increase in prices for the goods associated with the deterioration of their quality. Externalities, connected with the economic growth are not considered, the poor primarily affect the influence of which. It is shown that the decline in income is deep enough to have negative physiological consequences – the growth of at least 50% of the population is reduced, the life expectancy of at least 15 ... 30% (depending on the source) of the population falls. It is noted that the physiological consequences of a decrease in income have a gender asymmetry – reducing the average median body height and a decrease in life expectancy is more pronounced for women than for men, despite the trend of equalization of incomes/wages for men and women. The decline in income is deep enough to have negative social consequences: in 1969, it led to a transition from a stable number of prisoners for decades to exponential growth; peak values of the specific number of prisoners in the 2000s are seven times higher than the level of 1969. As a reason for the decline in income, the hypothesis about the impact of rising US immigration was presented and rejected.

The combination of the economic forecasts using expert information

Abstract: Purpose of the study. The aim of this work is to consider the possibility of using expert information when combining forecasts as an additional factor in improving the accuracy of economic forecasting. Using the methodology of combining forecasts is increasingly found in the domestic practice of economic forecasting. Most researchers agree that combining forecasts improves forecasting accuracy by using all available information about the process under study, which is included in individual forecasting methods. Today, there are many methods for constructing weighting factors when combining forecasts, but all of them are primarily based on the use of only statistical information about the process under study. But economic forecasting cannot be linear in its dynamics, many external factors constantly affect the forecasted process, and some internal ones may not be affected by the methods used. In this case, it is necessary to attract expert information or external information about the forecast obtained in order to increase its accuracy and adjust the further development of the economic process. This is especially true today, during the period of digitalization of the economy and the increasing influence of social and political factors on the dynamics of economic phenomena. Materials and methods. For this purpose, methods of constructing integral indicators based on expert information or directly using such information at the stage of constructing a joint forecast can be directly used to make adjustments to the resulting combined forecast. Some of these approaches are already used in foreign practice of economic forecasting, while in domestic practice they are still little known. One of such approaches may be the use of the pairwise preference method or the application of Fishburn formulas for ranking particular forecasting methods by accuracy. The approaches considered in this work can be used as tools for constructing weight coefficients or as a correction of the obtained forecasting results. Results. As a result of this article, attempts have been made to propose possible methods for combining forecasts using expert information, a summary table has been compiled with an assessment of one or another method of combining forecasts, and conclusions are drawn on the appropriateness of their application in practice. Such a table will make it possible to better understand the direction of attracting expert information to combine forecasts and choose the most suitable approach for further use in practice. Conclusion. Combining forecasts has long established itself as an effective method for increasing forecast accuracy. This technique cannot degrade the result, in most cases increasing accuracy. The use of expert information in combining forecasts is the next step in improving this technique and requires a separate further practical study of possible tools for attracting expert information to the pool.