Showing papers in "Wem-water Engineering & Management in 2017"

Bayesian Approach to Evaluate the Impact of External Shocks on Russian Macroeconomics Indicators

Abstract: One of the promising approaches of macroeconomic modeling and quantitative assessment of the impact of external and internal factors on macroeconomy of a country, which is actively used abroad, is a Bayesian approach to the description of macroeconomic processes. In this paper we examine Bayesian vector autoregression model (BVAR) to assess the impact of external shocks, such as the price of Brent crude oil, the volatility index VIX and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index, on Russian macroeconomic indicators. The results allow us to estimate the contribution of external factors as a significant in the dynamics of Russia economic variables. This approach can be successfully applied for the analysis of Russian data, which was confirmed by the results presented in the article.

Analysis and forecast of environmental load in Russia

Abstract: The article presents an analysis of modern issues of environmental pollution in the Russian Federation: growth of the pollutants concentration in the atmosphere, decrease in the quality of water growth in the annual production and consumption waste generation etc. The authors present the load forecast for water and atmospheric resources as well as projected trend of waste production for a period of 2016–2020, obtained using dynamic interindustry model with ecological block Based on the forecast it is concluded that the growth of the environmental load will remain, and in order to prevent it the development of state ecological policies is required.

Construction of a Dynamic Input-Output Model with a Human Capital Block

Abstract: The accumulation of human capital is an important factor of economic growth. It seems to be useful to include «human capital» as a factor of a macroeconomic model, as it helps to take into account the quality differentiation of the workforce. Most of the models usually distinguish labor force by the levels of education, while some of the factors remain unaccounted. Among them are health status and culture development level, which influence productivity level as well as gross product reproduction. Inclusion of the human capital block to the interindustry model can help to make it more reliable for economic development forecasting. The article presents a mathematical description of the extended dynamic input-output model (DIOM) with a human capital block. The extended DIOM is based on the Input-Output Model from The KAMIN system (the System of Integrated Analyses of Interindustrial Information) developed at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation and at the Novosibirsk State University. The extended input-output model can be used to analyze and forecast development of Russian economy.

Ecological citizenship: theoretical analysis for a new vision of environmental policy

Abstract: Environmental policies have been considering citizens as passive actors of the change for many years, the new economics, and more precisely the notion of ecological citizenship, transcend this view by introducing citizens as actors of change and source of progress. In this article I try to put in perspective the literature on that topic with the rising of Community Supported Agriculture, to try to give weight to this new view. This new type of sustainable consumption might be considered as a tangible evidence of the theory of Dobson on ecological citizenship, if so, the scientific literature has to take more interest in it, so as to understand its implication in terms of public policies, which has yet not been done.