In presenting the dissertation as a partial fulfillment of
the requirements for an advanced degree from the Georgia
Institute of Technology, I agree that the Library of the
Institute shall make it available for inspection and
circulation in accordance with its regulations governing
materials of this type. I agree that permission to copy
from, or to publish from, this dissertation may be granted
by the professor under whose direction it was written, or,
in his absence, by the Dean of the Graduate Division when
such copying or publication is solely for scholarly purposes
and does not involve potential financial gain. It is under-
stood that any copying from, or publication of, this
dis-
sertation which involves potential financial gain will not
be allowed without written permission.
7/25/68
A COLLISION AVOIDANCE WARNING CRITERION
FOR MANEUVERING AIRCRAFT
A THESIS
Presented to
The Faculty of the Division of Graduate
Studies and Research
by
Roscoe McClendon Hinson, Jr.
In Partial Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the Degree
Doctor of Philosophy
in the School of Mechanical Engineering
Georgia Institute of Technology
March, 1972
A COLLISION AVOIDANCE WARNING CRITERION
FOR MANEUVERING AIRCRAFT
Approved:
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Date approved by Chairman:
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11
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is grateful to many people and organizations who have assisted
in the completion of this work, especially his wife, Elizabeth, and his parents,
Roscoe and Virginia Hinson.
Sincere thanks is given to Dr. S. L. Dicker son for his invaluable guidance
from the initiation of the thesis to its completion. Appreciation is expressed also
to Dr. J. E. Brown, Dr. R. B. Evans, Dr. J. J. Talavage, and Dr. W. M.
Williams for reviewing the thesis and making suggestions for its improvement.
For their help in the conceptual phase of the research, gratitude is given
to T. Walsh, and J. H. Schrader of Langley Research Center; R. M. Buck,
J. Brennan and F. Brandl of the Federal Aviation Administration in Washington;
F.
C. White of the American Transport Association; and C. L. Britt of the
Research Triangle Institute. For their help in obtaining the Atlanta Radar Data,
appreciation is extended to R. J. Cannon and CD. Jolitz of the National Aviation
Facilities Experimental Center.
And finally, without the financial aid of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, the research would not have been possible. The author was the
recipient of a NASA System Design Traineeship.
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NGT 11-002-064 & NGR 11-002-081
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS i
v
SUMMARY . . vii
NOMENCLATURE jx
Chapter
I. INTRODUCTION 1
n. THREAT PREDICTION CRITERIA 5
Previous Criteria
A New Criterion
m. THEORY OF COLLISION PROBABILITY 10
Definition of Collision Probability
Previous Methods of Calculation
Marks' Method for CAS Applications
A New Method
IV. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND COMPUTATIONAL
TECHNIQUES 32
Introduction
Position Statistics
Mean Dwell Time
V. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS 71
Numerical Results
Future Research Possibilities
Application of the Methodology
LITERATURE CITED 83
VITA
86