Journal ArticleDOI
Classical logic and the problem of uncertainty
TLDR
It is shown herein that probability can be comprehended in terms of a set of formal theories built in similar language, and explained how logical probabilistic methods relate to such techniques, and shows that the perfect formalization of a domain of knowledge requires them.Abstract:
The uncertainty of knowledge, in contrast to that of data, can be assessed by its probability in the logical sense. The logical concept of probability has been developed since the 1930s but, to date, no complete and accepted framework has been found. This paper approaches this problem from the point of view of logical entailment and natural sequential calculus of Classical logic. It is shown herein that probability can be comprehended in terms of a set of formal theories built in similar language. This measure is compliant with general understanding of probability, can be both conditional and unconditional, accounts for learning new evidence and complements Bayes’s rule. The approach suggested is practically infeasible at present and requires further theoretical research in the domain of geoscience. Nevertheless, even within the framework of existing methods of expert judgement processing, there is a way of implementing logic that will improve the quality of judgements. Also, to reach the state of formalization necessary to use logical probability, techniques of knowledge engineering are required; this paper explains how logical probabilistic methods relate to such techniques, and shows that the perfect formalization of a domain of knowledge requires these methods. Hence, the lines for future research should be: (1) the development of a strategy of co-application of existing expert judgement-processing techniques, knowledge engineering and classical logic; and (2) further research into logic enabling the development of formal languages and theories inread more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
An introduction to prior information derived from probabilistic judgements: elicitation of knowledge, cognitive bias and herding
TL;DR: The authors show that the combination of data paucity and commonly employed heuristics can lead to herding behaviour within groups of experts, and identify several key directions in which future research is likely to lead to methods that reduce such emergent group behaviour, thereby increasing the probability that the stock of common knowledge will converge in a stable manner towards facts about the Earth as it really is.
Journal ArticleDOI
Geological prior information and its applications to geoscientific problems
Rachel Wood,Andrew Curtis +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a probabilistic framework for the use and understanding of geological prior information is proposed. But this framework requires that multiple geological experts are consulted and any conflicting views reconciled, all prior information includes measures of confidence or uncertainty, and as much information as possible is quantitative, and qualitative information or assumptions are clearly defined so that uncertainty or risk in the final result can be evaluated.
Journal ArticleDOI
The event bush as a semantic-based numerical approach to natural hazard assessment (exemplified by volcanology)
Cyril Pshenichny,Sergey I. Nikolenko,Roberto Carniel,P. A. Vaganov,Z. V. Khrabrykh,V. P. Moukhachov,V. L. Akimova-Shterkhun,A. A. Rezyapkin +7 more
TL;DR: The event bush is a new formalism for organizing knowledge in various fields of geoscience, particularly suitable for hazard assessment purposes, and the connection with Bayesian belief networks is presented.
Book ChapterDOI
Addressing Conflicting Cognitive Models in Collaborative E-Research: A Case Study in Exploration Geophysics
The Event Bush as a Potential Complex Methodology of Conceptual Modelling in the Geosciences
Cyril Pshenichny,Sergey I. Nikolenko,Roberto Carniel,A. L. Sobissevitch,P. A. Vaganov,Z. V. Khrabrykh,V. P. Moukhachov,V. L. Shterkhun,A. A. Rezyapkin,A. V. Yakovlev,R. A. Fedukov,E. A. Gusev +11 more
TL;DR: This paper aims to provide the practical guidelines for building event bushes and describes the method through an example, chosen to be clear to any geoscientist and even non-scientist.
References
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Book
Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a software tool for uncertainty analysis, called Analytica, for quantitative policy analysis, which can be used to perform probability assessment and propagation and analysis of uncertainty.
Journal ArticleDOI
Untersuchungen über das logische Schließen. II
TL;DR: In this paper, a process for sizing cellulose fibers or cellulose fiber containing materials and a composition for carrying out the process are described, and a method for sizing according to the general formula of R1 is presented.