Approximate parity in power capabilities between states creates uncertainty of victory if war were to occur. Whether, therefore, decisional uncertainty inhibits war between states or makes a breaking of the peace likely, is a central question in the host of 'balance of power' theories of interstate conflict. Some argue one way; others a different way; and some appear to argue one way, then the other.1 For a long time each found support in armchair reflection?common sense bolstered with diplomatic anecdotes from ancient and modern state systems. Arguments could be made to command diverse historical examples because they rested upon the common assump tion that calculations of power, security and conflicts of interest are essentially the same in any system of sovereign states. Anarchy, if you will, orders anachronisms. Now, however, each side can find support in quantitative evidence from far more systematic empirical analyses. The latter analyses are intended to bring some order and discipline to contrary insights by replacing anecdote with data. Consider the findings from four studies of conflicts during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. First, A. F. K. Organski and J. Kugler, measuring power capabilities with gross national product, find that the great powers 'seem to fight, whether they are weaker, as strong as, or stronger than their opponents'.2 Among a selected group of great powers?dubbed 'contenders'?however, they find parity to be more dangerous than preponderance. Second, Wayne Ferris, measuring power capabilities with the results of factor analyses of eight variables across a large number of states during 1850-1965, finds that 'few wars are seen to occur when the two sides

Governance and population : the governmental implications of population change

Measuring the ‘balances of power’: a look at some numbers

This chapter argues that looking at politics and particularly IR through a demographic prism allows for the analysis of the fundamental structures of society. Kugler links demographic structures and changes to key dynamics in IR in ways unaccounted for in standard International Political Economy and economic models. In particular, he reveals links to national economic growth and instability; the rise and fall of regions; and civil war. Demographic dynamics are also directly connected to unrest that generates democratic movements or conflicts as observable throughout the Middle East and much of sub-Saharan Africa.

Governance and population : the governmental implications of population change

Citations

Measuring the ‘balances of power’: a look at some numbers

Demography and International Relations: Economics, Politics, Sociology, and Conflict

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