Which of the current climate scenarios is the most likely to happen?
Best insight from top research papers
The most likely current climate scenario to occur can be determined by considering various factors such as the skill of different regional climate models (RCMs), driving conditions from atmosphere–ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and the impact of weighting factors on climate projections. Weighting factors play a crucial role in reducing outliers' effects and increasing consistency among models, especially in regions with high RCM/AOGCM simulation variability . Additionally, the urgency of slowing down and limiting the greenhouse effect is emphasized, highlighting the need for more research to guide decision-makers in coping with unavoidable climatic changes . These factors collectively suggest that a scenario incorporating the identified essential performance metrics and driving conditions from AOGCMs, while considering the uncertainties and urgent need for mitigation, is most likely to unfold.
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| Papers (5) | Insight |
|---|---|
| Predicting the exact climate scenario is challenging, but increased poleward penetration of subtropical monsoonal regimes and tropical cyclones at higher latitudes are likely in the Southern Hemisphere. | |
12 Citations | Weighting factors combining RCMs and AOGCMs simulations increase consistency and reduce spread, making the scenario with substantial warming in southern Ontario and Quebec during summer and winter most likely. |
| The paper does not specify which current climate scenario is most likely to happen in the Bremen-Oldenburg metropolitan region; it focuses on developing regional climate scenarios. | |
01 Jan 2019 | The 2.0 °C scenario is most likely to occur, with an 80-85% chance of staying below 2 °C warming, aligning well with the Paris Agreement's 'well below 2 °C' target. |
| Climate change-induced increases in temperature during both day and night periods are likely to impact plant processes differently, affecting adaptation to salt stress under current climate scenarios. |
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