This article describes the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 upgrades include an increase in horizontal resolution in the atmosphere (N216–0.7°) and the ocean (0.25°), and implementation of a 3D-Var assimilation system for ocean and sea-ice conditions. GloSea5 shows improved year-to-year predictions of the major modes of variability. In the Tropics, predictions of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation are improved with reduced errors in the West Pacific. In the Extratropics, GloSea5 shows unprecedented levels of forecast skill and reliability for both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. We also find useful levels of skill for the western North Pacific Subtropical High which largely determines summer precipitation over East Asia.

Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system

The atmospheric layer that lies above Earth's weather systems can exert a strong downward influence. A review of this influence on storm tracks and surface weather suggests that the dynamical links between the layers hold across timescales.

Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather

Possible impact of Arctic warming on the mid-latitudes has sparked interest. Analyses of observations and climate model simulations reveal two distinct patterns of Arctic warming that affect East Asia and North America, respectively. Arctic warming has sparked a growing interest because of its possible impacts on mid-latitude climate1,2,3,4,5. A number of unusually harsh cold winters have occurred in many parts of East Asia and North America in the past few years2,6,7, and observational and modelling studies have suggested that atmospheric variability linked to Arctic warming might have played a central role1,3,4,8,9,10,11. Here we identify two distinct influences of Arctic warming which may lead to cold winters over East Asia or North America, based on observational analyses and extensive climate model results. We find that severe winters across East Asia are associated with anomalous warmth in the Barents–Kara Sea region, whereas severe winters over North America are related to anomalous warmth in the East Siberian–Chukchi Sea region. Each regional warming over the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by the local development of an anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough. The resulting northerly flow of cold air provides favourable conditions for severe winters in East Asia or North America. These links between Arctic and mid-latitude weather are also robustly found in idealized climate model experiments and CMIP5 multi-model simulations. We suggest that our results may help improve seasonal prediction of winter weather and extreme events in these regions.

Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia

This is a review about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its mean structure, temporal variability, controlling mechanisms, and role in the coupled climate system. The AMOC plays a central role in climate through its heat and freshwater transports. Northward ocean heat transport achieved by the AMOC is responsible for the relative warmth of the Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern Hemisphere and is thought to play a role in setting the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone north of the equator. The AMOC is a key means by which heat anomalies are sequestered into the ocean's interior and thus modulates the trajectory of climate change. Fluctuations in the AMOC have been linked to low-frequency variability of Atlantic sea surface temperatures with a host of implications for climate variability over surrounding landmasses. On intra-annual timescales, variability in AMOC is large and primarily reflects the response to local wind forcing; meridional coherence of anomalies is limited to that of the wind field. On interannual to decadal timescales, AMOC changes are primarily geostrophic and related to buoyancy anomalies on the western boundary. A pacemaker region for decadal AMOC changes is located in a western “transition zone” along the boundary between the subtropical and subpolar gyres. Decadal AMOC anomalies are communicated meridionally from this region. AMOC observations, as well as the expanded ocean observational network provided by the Argo array and satellite altimetry, are inspiring efforts to develop decadal predictability systems using coupled atmosphere-ocean models initialized by ocean data.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015RG000493

Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review

. The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate
(MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling
community. In the present paper, simulated mean climate, internal
climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and
briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate
model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall
reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6
is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g.,
summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating
Madden–Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation
(e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere–stratosphere
interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can
be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow
convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there
are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two
models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6 K remains the same because
the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset
each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a
wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate
predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using
MIROC6.

/pdf/description-and-basic-evaluation-of-simulated-mean-state-44n0m0l0qs.pdf

Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6

This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN).

/pdf/skillful-long-range-prediction-of-european-and-north-14ytmc1fc2.pdf

A. Peterson

Papers

Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters