Doug Smith

TL;DR: A new modeling system is presented that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions.

TL;DR: In this paper, an experimental framework to address decadal predictability/prediction is described and incorporated into the coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Model, phase 5 (CMIP5), some of which will be assessed for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

TL;DR: This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project.

TL;DR: An eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness is used, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65° N to 81.5° N, which reveals a high-frequency interannual variability in mean ArcticIce thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than byChanges in circulation.

TL;DR: This paper provided an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addressed the use of Decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system.