Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for forecasting of severe local storms. Many of these new applications are based on physical understanding of processes taking place on the storm scale and thus allow forecasters to become less dependent on empirical relationships. Refinements in pattern recognition and severe weather climatology continue to be of value to the operational severe local storms forecasters, however. Current methodology for forecasting severe local storms at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center is described. Operational uses of new forecast applications, new “real-time” data sources (such as wind profilers and Doppler radars), and improved numerical model products are discussed.

Severe Local Storms Forecasting

Western boundary currents (WBC) influence the global ocean circulation and climate, whereas it locally reaches out differently the continental margins relief. This study analyses the response of WBC over their interactions with the corn of South America Margin. Particularly, the North and East sectors of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) on northeastern Brazil are investigated based upon bathymetry, in situ currents measurements, and simulations of oceanic currents using the CROCO model. The RN margin provides a critical pathway to the WBC along the East and North sectors, which are narrow and retracted shelves (up to 40 km offshore) with steep upper continental slopes (1:11). These sectors are separated by the shallower topography of the Touros High which extends 80 km offshore. The results reveal that the interactions of the Northern Brazilian Undercurrent (NBUC) with the RN northern margin physiography produces a recirculating current region forced by current shear. Eddies and meanders are explicit in February and August, with meander predominance in the latter month because of the increasing of wind intensity eastward. The accelerated core position of NBUC (> 1.0 m.s1) corresponds to the upper slope region of Touros High on both months, and confirms the constrain effect of the margin on the NBUC. The change of margin direction from the N-S to E-W leads to the decreasing of current velocity (~0.1m.s1) near the northern continental slope. This contrast produces an abrupt variation in the shear velocities forming vortices and meanders. Thus, the physiography of the Touros High, the margin directions, and the intensity of the winds control these features development on a regional scale. These oceanic events near the shelf slope affect the sedimentary and ecological system on Brazilian Equatorial continental shelves.

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Dissertação de Mestrado

Characteristics and evolution of the low-level jet (LLJ)over southeastern Kansas were investigated during the 1999 Cooperative Surface-AtmosphereExchange Study (CASES–99) field campaign with an instrument complement consisting of ahigh-resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL), a 60 m instrumented tower, and a triangle of Dopplermini-sodar/profiler combinations. Using this collection of instrumentation we determined thespeed UX, height ZX and direction DX of the LLJ. We investigate here the frequencyof occurrence, the spatial distribution, and the evolution through the night, of these LLJcharacteristics. The jet of interest in this study was that which generates the shear and turbulencebelow the jet and near the surface. This was represented by the lowest wind maximum.We found that this wind maximum, which was most often between 7 and 10 m s‐1,was often at or just below 100 m above ground level as measured by HRDL at the CASEScentral site. Over the 60 km profiler–sodararray, the topography varied by ∼100 m. The wind speed anddirection were relatively constant over this distance (with some tendency for strongerwinds at the highest site), but ZX was more variable. ZX was occasionally about equal at allthree sites, indicating that the jet was following the terrain, but more often it seemed to berelatively level, i.e., at about the same height above sea level. ZX was also more variable thanUX in the behaviour of the LLJ with time through the night, and on some nights $UX wasremarkably steady. Examples of two nights with strong turbulence below jet level were furtherinvestigated using the 60 m tower at the main CASES–99 site. Evidence of TKE increasing withheight and downward turbulent transport of TKE indicates that turbulence was primarilygenerated aloft and mixed downward, supporting the upside–down boundary layer notion in thestable boundary layer.

Nocturnal Low-Level Jet Characteristics Over Kansas During Cases-99

A climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is developed from 2 yr of research rawinsonde data obtained up to eight times per day at a site in north-central Oklahoma. These data have better height and time resolution than earlier studies, and show that jets are stronger than previously reported and that the heights of maximum wind speed are closer to the ground. LLJs are present in 47% of the warm season soundings and 45% of the cold season soundings. More than 50% of the LLJs have wind maxima below 500 m above ground level (AGL). Because the 404-MHz radar profiler network in the central United States has its first data points at 500 m AGL, it is likely to miss some LLJ events and will have inadequate vertical resolution of LLJ wind structure. Previous studies have identified LLJs on the basis of a wind speed profile criterion. This criterion fails to separate the classical southerly LLJs from the less frequent northerly jets, which differ in both structure and evolution. Classical sout...

Low-Level Jet Climatology from Enhanced Rawinsonde Observations at a Site in the Southern Great Plains

The high-resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL) was developed to provide higher spatial, temporal, and velocity resolution and more reliable performance than was previously obtainable with CO2-laser-based technology. The improved performance is needed to support continued advancement of boundary layer simulation models and to facilitate high-resolution turbulent flux measurements. HRDL combines a unique, eye-safe, near-IR-wavelength, solid-state laser transmitter with advanced signal processing and a high-speed scanner to achieve 30-m range resolution and a velocity precision of ∼10 cm s−1 under a variety of marine and continental boundary layer conditions, depending on atmospheric and operating conditions. An attitude-compensating scanner has been developed to facilitate shipboard marine boundary layer observations. Vertical velocities, fine details of the wind profile near the surface, turbulence kinetic energy profiles, and momentum flux are measurable with HRDL. The system is also useful for cloud s...

High-Resolution Doppler Lidar for Boundary Layer and Cloud Research

A single Doppler radar obtained detailed clear-air measurements of the development of a strong boundary-layer nocturnal jet in North Dakota during the summer of 1989. The evolution of the jet was monitored by the radar with a high degree of vertical and temporal resolution using a repetitive sequence of four different elevation scans. A new variation of the velocity-azimuth display (VAD) analysis technique provided vertical profiles of the mean wind components and several turbulence terms. Boundary-layer wind speeds began to increase in the late afternoon, well before sunset, as surface cooling began. Wind speeds accelerated faster after sunset and eventually produced a jet that exceeded 23 m s−1 at about 0.5 km AGL. The wind veered with height and time and followed the expected inertial oscillation pattern. Measured shear stresses, vertical fluxes of momentum, and velocity variances, which were initially large, decreased sharply after the surface began to cool. The directly measured vertical vel...

Doppler Radar Observations of the Development of a Boundary-Layer Nocturnal Jet

The Doppler radar velocity azimuth display (VAD) technique for obtaining first and second moments of radial wind velocities is expanded to third-moment calculations. By scanning at an elevation angle of 50.8°, terms of the third-moment equation can be reduced to yield the vertical flux of turbulent kinetic energy, % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaa0aaaeaace% WG3bGbauaaceWGXbGbauaaaaaaaa!3807!\[\overline {w'q'} \]. The technique has been applied to summertime radar measurements of the convective boundary layer in Illinois. Resulting vertical profiles of % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaa0aaaeaace% WG3bGbauaaceWGXbGbauaaaaaaaa!3807!\[\overline {w'q'} \] follow the expected shape, and the magnitudes compare well with those of aircraft measurements in previous studies.

A. Shelby Frisch

Papers

Doppler Radar Observations of the Development of a Boundary-Layer Nocturnal Jet

Measurement of the vertical flux of turbulent kinetic energy with a single Doppler radar