Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Most of the signal processing that we will study in this course involves local operations on a signal, namely transforming the signal by applying linear combinations of values in the neighborhood of each sample point. You are familiar with such operations from Calculus, namely, taking derivatives and you are also familiar with this from optics namely blurring a signal. We will be looking at sampled signals only. Let's start with a few basic examples. Local difference Suppose we have a 1D image and we take the local difference of intensities, DI(x) = 1 2 (I(x + 1) − I(x − 1)) which give a discrete approximation to a partial derivative. (We compute this for each x in the image.) What is the effect of such a transformation? One key idea is that such a derivative would be useful for marking positions where the intensity changes. Such a change is called an edge. It is important to detect edges in images because they often mark locations at which object properties change. These can include changes in illumination along a surface due to a shadow boundary, or a material (pigment) change, or a change in depth as when one object ends and another begins. The computational problem of finding intensity edges in images is called edge detection. We could look for positions at which DI(x) has a large negative or positive value. Large positive values indicate an edge that goes from low to high intensity, and large negative values indicate an edge that goes from high to low intensity. Example Suppose the image consists of a single (slightly sloped) edge:

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/5/31307/01456462.pdf

Linear systems

Software systems dealing with distributed applications in changing environments normally require human supervision to continue operation in all conditions. These (re-)configuring, troubleshooting, and in general maintenance tasks lead to costly and time-consuming procedures during the operating phase. These problems are primarily due to the open-loop structure often followed in software development. Therefore, there is a high demand for management complexity reduction, management automation, robustness, and achieving all of the desired quality requirements within a reasonable cost and time range during operation. Self-adaptive software is a response to these demands; it is a closed-loop system with a feedback loop aiming to adjust itself to changes during its operation. These changes may stem from the software system's self (internal causes, e.g., failure) or context (external events, e.g., increasing requests from users). Such a system is required to monitor itself and its context, detect significant changes, decide how to react, and act to execute such decisions. These processes depend on adaptation properties (called self-a properties), domain characteristics (context information or models), and preferences of stakeholders. Noting these requirements, it is widely believed that new models and frameworks are needed to design self-adaptive software. This survey article presents a taxonomy, based on concerns of adaptation, that is, how, what, when and where, towards providing a unified view of this emerging area. Moreover, as adaptive systems are encountered in many disciplines, it is imperative to learn from the theories and models developed in these other areas. This survey article presents a landscape of research in self-adaptive software by highlighting relevant disciplines and some prominent research projects. This landscape helps to identify the underlying research gaps and elaborates on the corresponding challenges.

/pdf/self-adaptive-software-landscape-and-research-challenges-4rt6vhdmq2.pdf

Self-adaptive software: Landscape and research challenges

To simulate blockchain systems as close to reality as possible, we need accurate estimates of the probability distribution of various variables. In this paper we obtain distributions for Ethereum smart contract transactions, with respect to Gas Limit, Used Gas, Gas Price and CPU Time. To determine these distributions we use publicly available Ethereum smart contract information, augmented with experimental data for over 300,000 smart contracts obtained on a test bed. We conclude that Gaussian Mixture Models are appropriate for distributions of smart contracts with respect to Used Gas and Gas Price, and use a uniform distribution for the distribution with respect to the Gas Limit. A correlation analysis shows that the CPU Time is strongly correlated with Used Gas and we therefore apply regression techniques to estimate the CPU Time conditioned on Used Gas. We experiment with three ensemble regression methods, namely Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine and Adaptive Boosting and conclude that Random Forest is both fast and accurate.

Fitting and Regression for Distributions of Ethereum Smart Contracts

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in tabular data synthesis, under the presumption of direct accessible training data. Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) is a paradigm which allows to distributedly train machine learning model with clients possessing unique features pertaining to the same individuals, where the tabular data learning is the primary use case. However, it is unknown if tabular GANs can be learned in VFL. Demand for secure data transfer among clients and GAN during training and data synthesizing poses extra challenge. Conditional vector for tabular GANs is a valuable tool to control specific features of generated data. But it contains sensitive information from real data - risking privacy guarantees. In this paper, we propose GTV, a VFL framework for tabular GANs, whose key components are generator, discriminator and the conditional vector. GTV proposes an unique distributed training architecture for generator and discriminator to access training data in a privacy-preserving manner. To accommodate conditional vector into training without privacy leakage, GTV designs a mechanism training-with-shuffling to ensure that no party can reconstruct training data with conditional vector. We evaluate the effectiveness of GTV in terms of synthetic data quality, and overall training scalability. Results show that GTV can consistently generate high-fidelity synthetic tabular data of comparable quality to that generated by centralized GAN algorithm. The difference on machine learning utility can be as low as to 2.7%, even under extremely imbalanced data distributions across clients and different number of clients.

GTV: Generating Tabular Data via Vertical Federated Learning

The evaluation of the two principal styles of web services architecture: Representational State Transfer (REST) and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) has conventionally focused on the extent to which each architectural style induces desirable architectural properties. The increasing prevalence of enterprise web services and the commercialization of publicly available web services has driven increased interest in the association of Quality of Service (QoS) with the provision of services. Accordingly, the evaluation of web services architectures must consider the consequences of each architecture in terms of Quality of Service (QoS), such as performance and availability, and in terms of profit yielded by a provider offering service provision contracts contingent on this QoS. We introduce a utility model to facilitate the formation of optimal service contracts under the uncertainty in QoS experienced using a given architecture. We then introduce the Amazon Simple Storage Service (S3) as a pertinent example service, and present an architecture for contract-based service provision along with an implementation of the architecture using S3. Empirical results obtained from the implementation are presented to illustrate the consequences of a chosen architecture on QoS and therefore on the profit yielded by the provider from service provision contracts. This demonstrates the applicability of an empirical evaluation of web services architectures from an economic perspective.

/pdf/an-empirical-evaluation-of-web-services-architectures-from-132fjc1jp3.pdf

An Empirical Evaluation of Web Services Architectures from an Economic Perspective

Background. 3-D Secure 2.0 (3DS 2.0) is an identity federation protocol authenticating the payment initiator for credit card transactions on the Web. Aim. We aim to quantify the impact of factors used by 3DS 2.0 in its fraud-detection decision making process. Method. We ran credit card transactions with two Web sites systematically manipulating the nominal IVs \textsf{machine\_data}, \textsf{value}, \textsf{region}, and \textsf{website}. We measured whether the user was \textsf{challenged} with an authentication, whether the transaction was \textsf{declined}, and whether the card was \textsf{blocked} as nominal DVs. Results. While \textsf{website} and \textsf{card} largely did not show a significant impact on any outcome, \textsf{machine\_data}, \textsf{value} and \textsf{region} did. A change in \textsf{machine\_data}, \textsf{region} or \textsf{value} made it 5-7 times as likely to be challenged with password authentication. However, even in a foreign region with another factor being changed, the overall likelihood of being challenged only reached $60\%$. When in the card's home region, a transaction will be rarely declined ($< 5\%$ in control, $40\%$ with one factor changed). However, in a region foreign to the card the system will more likely decline transactions anyway (about $60\%$) and any change in \textsf{machine\_data} or \textsf{value} will lead to a near-certain declined transaction. The \textsf{region} was the only significant predictor for a card being blocked ($\mathsf{OR}=3$). Conclusions. We found that the decisions to challenge the user with a password authentication, to decline a transaction and to block a card are governed by different weightings. 3DS 2.0 is most likely to decline transactions, especially in a foreign region. It is less likely to challenge users with password authentication, even if \textsf{machine\_data} or \textsf{value} are changed.

Investigation of 3-D Secure's Model for Fraud Detection

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel5/6294/5778994/05779004.pdf

Aad van Moorsel

Papers

Fitting and Regression for Distributions of Ethereum Smart Contracts

GTV: Generating Tabular Data via Vertical Federated Learning

An Empirical Evaluation of Web Services Architectures from an Economic Perspective

Investigation of 3-D Secure's Model for Fraud Detection

A Community Base for IT Security