In den letzten Jahren hat Kroatien mehrere Handelsabkommen unterzeichnet. Die Hauptelemente der kroatischen Handelspolitik sind die Mitgliedschaft in der WTO, das Stabilisierungsund Assoziierungsabkommen mit der EU und der Antrag auf EU-Mitgliedschaft sowie die bilateralen Freihandelsabkommen innerhalb des Stabilitatspaktes fur Sudosteuropa. Ziel des vorliegenden Beitrages ist es, die Auswirkungen dieser Agrarhandelspolitik auf den kroatischen Agrar- und Ernahrungssektor zu quantifizieren. Fur die Analyse wird ein partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell verwendet, das auf Daten der Jahre 1999/2000 basiert. Fur 12 Produktgruppen wird Kroatiens Handel mit Bosnien und Herzegowina, Ungarn, Slowenien, der EU-15 und dem Rest der Welt modelliert. Fur die Jahre 2002 und 2005 werden drei Liberalisierungsszenarien untersucht, die sich bezuglich der Zollanderungen unterscheiden. Insgesamt zeigen die Modellergebnisse, das eine wechselseitige Handelsliberalisierung wohlfahrtssteigernde Effekte fur Kroatien hat. Der Anstieg der Konsumentenwohlfahrt ubersteigt den Einkommensruckgang der Landwirte und den Verlust an staatlichen Zolleinnahmen. Daher ist eine Fortsetzung der Handelsliberalisierung empfehlenswert. Allerdings kann die Handelspolitik alleine die existierenden Probleme im Agrar- und Ernahrungssektor Kroatiens nicht losen. Um unerwunschteHarten zu vermeiden, konnten fur eine Ubergangsphase Kompensationsmasnahmen in Betracht gezogen werden. Der Nutzen einer Handelsliberalisierung ist vor allem in einem verbesserten Zugang zu internationalen Markten zu sehen. Dies ermoglicht es kroatischen Verarbeitern wahrscheinlich, Skaleneffekte zu realisieren. Auserdem erhohen international bindende Verpflichtungen wie Handelsabkommen die interne und internationale politische Glaubwurdigkeit und tragen damit dazu bei, politische Risiken zu reduzieren.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28575/1/392917149.pdf

Quantitative analysis of the impacts of Croatia's agricultural trade policy on the agri-food sector

The paper aims at the overview of the main approaches of state support implemented by developed and developing countries and the assessment of their distorting influences on the trade with agricultural commodities. The current state of state support is analyzed on the examples of EU-27, the USA and Japan. The experiences of developing countries are summarized on the examples of China, Russia and the CIS countries. State support tools are grouped according to the WTO classification. The alternative classification is implemented in order to compare the distorting effects caused by the state support. The EPACIS model is implemented to analyze the effects of trade liberalization for the distribution of agricultural commodities and trade policies in developing countries. The model is adjusted in order to assess the effects of state support for the production and trade with agricultural commodities in developing countries, recently accessed the WTO (the case of Russia). Imitation calculations allow formulating policies for the developing agricultural markets depending on the degrees of their sensitivity to foreign trade regulations and domestic support.

/pdf/trade-liberalization-and-state-support-of-agriculture-44eg9ssi6s.pdf

Trade liberalization and state support of agriculture: effects for developing countries.

Russian Abstract: Показано, что в долгосрочной перспективе наличие неиспользуемых сельхозугодий на северной границе зернового пояса европейской России будет содействовать развитию производства зерна, но этот процесс, во-первых, будет постепенным и вовлечёт сравнительно небольшие площади, во-вторых, имеет своей необходимой предпосылкой оптимальную стратегию использования инструментов аграрной политики, в числе которых на первый план выходит поддержка научно-исследовательских и опытно-конструкторских работ.
Дана оценка эффективности продаж зерна на данной территории, в том числе в разрезе видов, а по пшенице — в разрезе классов, для двух изученных сценариев вовлечения неиспользуемых сельхозугодий (в отсутствие и при наличии научно-технического прогресса) в сравнении с фактом.
Методика исследования основана на применении двух математических моделей, одна из которых вычисляет оптимальную аграрную политику на перспективу 25 лет при соблюдении условий равновесия на рынках зерна, картофеля и остальной продукции растениеводства, другая воспроизводит поведение совокупности сельхозорганизаций при помощи максимизации маржинального дохода по непараметрической границе производственных возможностей для 24 продуктов сельского хозяйства.

English Abstract: It has been shown that in the long term, the presence of unused farmland on the northern border of the grain belt of European Russia will contribute to the development of grain production, but this process will, firstly, be gradual and involve relatively small areas, and secondly, it will have the necessary prerequisite for using optimal tools agrarian policy, among which the support of research and development works is coming to the fore.

An assessment of the effectiveness of grain sales in a given territory, including by type, and for wheat, by class, is given for the two studied scenarios for involving unused agricultural land (in the absence and with scientific and technological progress) in comparison with the fact.

The research methodology is based on the use of two mathematical models, one of which calculates the optimal agrarian policy for the future of 25 years while maintaining equilibrium conditions in the markets of grain, potatoes and the rest of crop production, the other reproduces the behavior of the aggregate agricultural organizations by maximizing the marginal income for non-parametric production capacities for 24 products of agriculture.

Оценка эффективности организации производства зерна на неиспользуемых сельхозугодьях (Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Organization of Grain Production in Unused Farmland)

The paper presents the economic and mathematical analysis of the likely consequences of the transition to a single agri-food policy in the three countries EAEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Use any copyrighted modification of economic-mathematical model of partial equilibrium EPACIS, which eliminates the drawbacks associated with alternative solutions and computational problems. The expediency of a conservative approach to integration processes in the EAEC, consisting in the integration of primary markets, the integration of the least prone to stress; the priority of improving the competitiveness of inefficient sectors to the integration of markets; ready to suspend the acts aimed at deepening integration, the detection of adverse effects.

Economic and Mathematical Modeling of EAEC Agri-food Policy

The collapse of the former Soviet Union has led to a sharp decline in the trading of agricultural products between its successor states. There have been attempts to revive these trade relations by means of bilateral and regional trade agreements. In addition, almost all member states of the CIS are in the process of negotiating accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Because of its size and agricultural production potential, the Russian Federation is of primary importance in this respect. The integration of the Russian Federation in the world economy, which is expected to result from its accession to the WTO, will have a sizeable impact not only on its own agricultural sector, but also on the world markets for agricultural products.

Russia’s Agro-food Trade and Trade Agreements

The paper analyzes the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia’s bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers, consumers, and the state budget. Three experiments are simulated using a partial equilibrium model based on the Armington approach. The results show that the current situation of import tariff-free trade between Russia and other CIS countries has small positive welfare effects for the Russian Federation in comparison to a situation where import tariffs between these countries were to be imposed. However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.

Russia’s Bilateral Agricultural Trade: First Results of a Partial Equilibrium Analysis

Russia’s Bilateral Agricultural Trade: First Results of a Partial Equilibrium Analysis / Russia’s Agro-Food Sector: Towards Truly Functioning Markets. Edited by P. Wehrheim, K. Frohberg, E. Serova, J. von Braun.

Achim Fock

Papers

Russia’s Bilateral Agricultural Trade: First Results of a Partial Equilibrium Analysis

Russia’s Bilateral Agricultural Trade: First Results of a Partial Equilibrium Analysis / Russia’s Agro-Food Sector: Towards Truly Functioning Markets. Edited by P. Wehrheim, K. Frohberg, E. Serova, J. von Braun.