Russia’s Bilateral Agricultural Trade: First Results of a Partial Equilibrium Analysis

TLDR: In this article, the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia's bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers, consumers, and the state budget were analyzed.

Abstract: The paper analyzes the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia’s bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers, consumers, and the state budget. Three experiments are simulated using a partial equilibrium model based on the Armington approach. The results show that the current situation of import tariff-free trade between Russia and other CIS countries has small positive welfare effects for the Russian Federation in comparison to a situation where import tariffs between these countries were to be imposed. However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.