This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) a new base year of 2005/2007 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/2001); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA. Estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections. Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually. The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and agriculture variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related NonCommunicable Diseases.

World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision

GeoDist makes available the exhaustive set of gravity variables used in Mayer and Zignago (2005). GeoDist provides several geographical variables, in particular bilateral distances measured using citylevel data to assess the geographic distribution of population inside each nation. We have calculated different measures of bilateral distances available for most countries across the world (225 countries in the current version of the database). For most of them, different calculations of “intra-national distances” are also available. The GeoDist webpage provides two distinct files: a country-specific one (geo_cepii) and a dyadic one (dist_cepii) including a set of different distance and common dummy variables used in gravity equations to identify particular links between countries such as colonial past, common languages, contiguity. We try to improve upon the existing similar datasets in terms of geographical coverage, quality of measurement and number of variables provided.

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Notes on CEPII’s Distances Measures: The GeoDist Database

This book explores whether the world economy is breaking up into regional trading and currency blocs centred on the European Community, Japan and the United States. Frankel uses trade, investment and financial data to assess this issue. He concludes with an analysis of how trends in regional economic integration can be used as building blocks for a stronger multilateral system.

Regional Trading Blocs in the world economic system, reseñado por Antonio Ortiz-Mena L.N.

http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2008/wp2008-27.pdf

The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence

In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the recent literature leads us to conclude that, in contrast with the profession's consensus view of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially through its role as a signal of policy intentions, and especially when it is publicly announced and concerted. We also note, however, an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest an additional way in which intervention may be effective but which has so far received little attention in the literature, namely through its role in remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market.

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Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on the determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries and re-evaluate the role of the quality of institutions on FDI independently of the general level of development. We implement cross-section estimations based on a newly available database with unprecedented detail on institutions for a set of 52 countries, as well as panel data estimations based on Fraser Institute's data. Furthermore, we control for the correlation between institutions and GDP per capita and for endogeneity of institutions. Finally, we evaluate whether the similarity of institutions between the host and the origin country raises bilateral FDI. We find that a wide range of institutions, including bureaucracy, corruption, but also information, banking sector and legal institutions, do matter for inward FDI independently of GDP per capita. Interestingly, weak capital concentration and strong employment protection tend to reduce inward FDI. Institutional proximity between the origin and the host country also matters, but we find little impact of institutions in the origin country. These results are encouraging in the sense that efforts towards raising the quality of institutions and making them converge towards those of source countries may help developing countries to receive more FDI, independently of the indirect impact of higher GDP per capita. The orders of magnitude found in the paper are large, meaning that moving from a low level to a high level of institutional quality could have as much impact as suddenly becoming a neighbour of a source country.

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Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2005/wp2005-16.pdf

China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar

Building on the needs for long-term capital inflows in developing countries, this paper reconsiders the choice of an exchange-rate regime by integrating the determinants of multinational firms' locations. The trade-off between price competitiveness and a stable nominal exchange rate is modeled. Empirical results show that exchange-rate volatility is detrimental to foreign direct investment (FDI) and that its impact compares with that of misalignments. One policy implication is that the building of currency blocks could be a way of increasing FDI to emerging countries as a whole. The frontiers of monetary areas would then be strongly influenced by geography, as FDI is. J. Japan. Int. Econ., June 2001, 15(2), pp. 178–198. University of Paris X-Nanterre (THEMA) and CEPII, 200 avenue de la Republique F-92000 Nanterre, France, CEPII and TEAM, 9 rue Georges Pitard F-75015 Paris, France, (University of Amiens (CRIISEA), CEPII and TEAM, 9 rue Georges Pitard F-75015 Paris, France). Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F21, F23, F31, F33.

Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment☆

Based on a panel of bilateral FDI flows among 11 OECD countries over 1984–2000, we show that, although agglomeration-related factors are strong determinants of FDI, tax differentials also play a significant role in understanding foreign location decisions. We further investigate non-linearities in the impact of tax differentials, and explore the impact of tax schemes. Our results are consistent with the imperfect competition literature which underscores the possibility of tax differentials across countries in equilibrium.

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How Does FDI React to Corporate Taxation

The euro area continues to suffer from critical weaknesses that are the result of a poorly designed fiscal and financial architecture, but its members are divided on how to address the problems. This paper proposes six reforms which, if delivered as a package, would improve the euro area?s financial stability, political cohesion, and potential for delivering prosperity to its citizens, all while addressing the priorities and concerns of participating countries.

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré

Papers

Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar

Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment☆

How Does FDI React to Corporate Taxation

Reconciling risk sharing with market discipline: A constructive approach to euro area reform