The Description for this book, On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, will be forthcoming.

On the Accuracy of Economic Observations

The First World War: An Agrarian Interpretation.

Entre su unificacion y la Primera Guerra Mundial, Italia se enfrento a un periodo de creciente participacion en la economia internacional. El crecimiento de las exportaciones italianas fue gradual, y promovido de forma alterna por sus margenes intensivos y extensivos. En este documento, utilizando una base de datos desagregada a nivel de pais y producto, en primer lugar construyo los margenes de comercio intensivo (promedio de exportacion por producto) y extensivo (numero de productos) para las importaciones y exportaciones italianas y, en segundo lugar, en el marco de un modelo de cuasi-gravedad, estimo los 
impulsores de la entrada en el mercado de las exportaciones italianas (1862-1913), prestando especial atencion a la presencia de efectos de contagio a nivel de sector. Encuentro que la presencia de productos exportados «similares» aumento la probabilidad de entrada en el mercado de destino (efecto contagio de exportacion), pero con efectos marginales decrecientes, potencialmente vinculados a una «saturacion»/«congestion» del mercado. Del mismo modo, considero que, cuanto mayor es la tasa de crecimiento de las importaciones para un producto especifico, mas probable es los exportadores italianos lo internacionalicen (efecto contagio de las importaciones).

The margins of trade: market entry and sector spillovers, the case of Italy (1862-1913)

Settler Capitalism: The Dynamics of Dependent Development in the Southern Hemisphere

The objective of this article is to offer empirical evidence regarding the behaviour of the exports and relative prices of agricultural and food products from South America between 1900 and 1950. These were years of intense turbulence, which profoundly affected the countries of the region, generating a deep pessimism concerning the potentiality of the export-led development model. This study offers a new quantitative base to analyse the evolution of exports of agrifood products from South America between 1900 and 1938. The paper also offers a series for the evolution of the terms of trade in the region which takes into account in its construction, for the first time, the relative weights of South American exports of the distinct agricultural products.

/pdf/navigating-in-troubled-waters-south-american-exports-of-food-1ttplqhjob.pdf

Navigating in troubled waters: South American exports of food and agricultural products, 1900-1950

The objective of this paper is to explain, from a cliometric perspective, the determinants of the growth of Argentina’s exports between 1880 and 1929. To do this, we have constructed a gravity model with the principal products exported each year by Argentina to its most important trading partners. In this way, we believe that this study constitutes a relevant and original contribution to the analysis of economic growth from a historical perspective and specifically in explaining the factors determining the export success of the settler countries during the first wave of globalisation. Our results show that Argentina’s export-led growth must be explained from both the supply and demand sides. We also find that the reduction in trade costs and trade liberalisation, especially the latter, boosted exports. We also support the idea that Argentina had a successful agro-export sector because it offered a diverse basket of products to the different European and American countries that consumed them. To sum up, we can conclude that Argentina took advantage of a multilateral and open economic system. Within this context, the country generally found a demand for its supply, which constitutes the key to explaining the magnitude and speed of Argentina’s export growth.

/pdf/how-argentina-became-a-super-exporter-of-agricultural-and-2ws9zg3x6h.pdf

How Argentina became a super-exporter of agricultural and food products during the First Globalisation (1880–1929)

/pdf/la-estadistica-de-las-exportaciones-argentinas-1875-1913-1vbpsnx3pq.pdf

La estadística de las exportaciones argentinas, 1875-1913. Nuevas evidencias e interpretaciones

The objective of this paper is to explain, from a cliometric perspective, the determinants of the growth of Argentina’s exports between 1880 and 1929. To do this, we have constructed a gravity model with the principal products exported each year by Argentina to its most important trading partners. In this way, we believe that this study constitutes a relevant and original contribution to the analysis of economic growth from a historical perspective and specifically in explaining the factors determining the export success of the settler countries during the first wave of globalisation. Our results show that Argentina’s export-led growth must be explained from both the supply and demand sides. We also find that the reduction in transatlantic transport costs boosted exports.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/247038/1/ehes-wp107.pdf

Why did Argentina become a super-exporter of agricultural and food products during the Belle Époque (1880-1929)?

espanolLa historiografia ha prestado menos atencion a las importaciones que a las exportaciones argentinas entre el ultimo cuarto del siglo XIX y los umbrales de la Primera Guerra Mundial. Ello puede explicarse, por un lado, porque las segundas tuvieron un rol mas evidente en el crecimiento de la economia y, por el otro, por el alto grado de desagregacion de los datos de las primeras. En este trabajo, hacemos una critica de las estadisticas oficiales argentinas como fuentes disponibles para la reconstruccion de las importaciones. Luego, reestimamos la balanza comercial usando la serie de exportacion corregida por nosotros. Finalmente, proponemos una agenda de investigacion en base a los vacios historiograficos y el potencial de la informacion estadistica. EnglishHistoriography has payed less attention to imports than exports from the last quarter of the nineteenth century to the beginning of World War I. On the one hand, this is explained by the crucial and more visible part that exports played in fostering economic growth. On the other, the reason why imports have been less studied is the high level of disaggregation of the data available. In this paper, we analyse the official Argentine statistics as the main source for a reconstruction of imports. Then, we recalculate the balance of trade using our corrected export series. Additionally, we propose a research agenda based on gaps in the specialised literature and the possibilities given by the use of the official statistics.

/pdf/the-other-side-of-argentine-foreign-trade-sources-for-the-1d22817m4r.pdf

The Other Side of Argentine Foreign Trade: Sources for the Study of Imports, 1880-1913

This paper argues that pre-war geographical distribution of exports was one of the major reasons to explain Argentina’s neutrality during First World War. To...

/pdf/los-destinos-de-las-exportaciones-y-la-neutralidad-argentina-4g7pmcai3y.pdf

Agustina Rayes

Papers

How Argentina became a super-exporter of agricultural and food products during the First Globalisation (1880–1929)

La estadística de las exportaciones argentinas, 1875-1913. Nuevas evidencias e interpretaciones

Why did Argentina become a super-exporter of agricultural and food products during the Belle Époque (1880-1929)?

The Other Side of Argentine Foreign Trade: Sources for the Study of Imports, 1880-1913

Los destinos de las exportaciones y la neutralidad argentina durante la Primera Guerra Mundial