Simultaneous inference is a common problem in many areas of application. If multiple null hypotheses are tested simultaneously, the probability of rejecting erroneously at least one of them increases beyond the pre-specified significance level. Simultaneous inference procedures have to be used which adjust for multiplicity and thus control the overall type I error rate. In this paper we describe simultaneous inference procedures in general parametric models, where the experimental questions are specified through a linear combination of elemental model parameters. The framework described here is quite general and extends the canonical theory of multiple comparison procedures in ANOVA models to linear regression problems, generalized linear models, linear mixed effects models, the Cox model, robust linear models, etc. Several examples using a variety of different statistical models illustrate the breadth

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Simultaneous inference in general parametric models.

Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in fields as diverse as financial modeling, target tracking and computer vision. These methods, appearing under the names of bootstrap filters, condensation, optimal Monte Carlo filters, particle filters and survival of the fittest, have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques, including convergence results and applications to tracking, guidance, automated target recognition, aircraft navigation, robot navigation, econometrics, financial modeling, neural networks, optimal control, optimal filtering, communications, reinforcement learning, signal enhancement, model averaging and selection, computer vision, semiconductor design, population biology, dynamic Bayesian networks, and time series analysis. This will be of great value to students, researchers and practitioners, who have some basic knowledge of probability. Arnaud Doucet received the Ph. D. degree from the University of Paris-XI Orsay in 1997. From 1998 to 2000, he conducted research at the Signal Processing Group of Cambridge University, UK. He is currently an assistant professor at the Department of Electrical Engineering of Melbourne University, Australia. His research interests include Bayesian statistics, dynamic models and Monte Carlo methods. Nando de Freitas obtained a Ph.D. degree in information engineering from Cambridge University in 1999. He is presently a research associate with the artificial intelligence group of the University of California at Berkeley. His main research interests are in Bayesian statistics and the application of on-line and batch Monte Carlo methods to machine learning. Neil Gordon obtained a Ph.D. in Statistics from Imperial College, University of London in 1993. He is with the Pattern and Information Processing group at the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency in the United Kingdom. His research interests are in time series, statistical data analysis, and pattern recognition with a particular emphasis on target tracking and missile guidance.

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Sequential Monte Carlo methods in practice

Recursive binary partitioning is a popular tool for regression analysis. Two fundamental problems of exhaustive search procedures usually applied to fit such models have been known for a long time: overfitting and a selection bias towards covariates with many possible splits or missing values. While pruning procedures are able to solve the overfitting problem, the variable selection bias still seriously affects the interpretability of tree-structured regression models. For some special cases unbiased procedures have been suggested, however lacking a common theoretical foundation. We propose a unified framework for recursive partitioning which embeds tree-structured regression models into a well defined theory of conditional inference procedures. Stopping criteria based on multiple test procedures are implemented and it is shown that the predictive performance of the resulting trees is as good as the performance of established exhaustive search procedures. It turns out that the partitions and therefore the...

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Unbiased Recursive Partitioning: A Conditional Inference Framework

In this paper, we present a new nonlinear filter for high-dimensional state estimation, which we have named the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) The heart of the CKF is a spherical-radial cubature rule, which makes it possible to numerically compute multivariate moment integrals encountered in the nonlinear Bayesian filter Specifically, we derive a third-degree spherical-radial cubature rule that provides a set of cubature points scaling linearly with the state-vector dimension The CKF may therefore provide a systematic solution for high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems The paper also includes the derivation of a square-root version of the CKF for improved numerical stability The CKF is tested experimentally in two nonlinear state estimation problems In the first problem, the proposed cubature rule is used to compute the second-order statistics of a nonlinearly transformed Gaussian random variable The second problem addresses the use of the CKF for tracking a maneuvering aircraft The results of both experiments demonstrate the improved performance of the CKF over conventional nonlinear filters

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Cubature Kalman Filters

The Bayes factor is a ratio of two posterior normalizing constants, which may be difficult to compute. We compare several methods of estimating Bayes factors when it is possible to simulate observations from the posterior distributions, via Markov chain Monte Carlo or other techniques. The methods that we study are all easily applied without consideration of special features of the problem, provided that each posterior distribution is well behaved in the sense of having a single dominant mode. We consider a simulated version of Laplace's method, a simulated version of Bartlett correction, importance sampling, and a reciprocal importance sampling technique. We also introduce local volume corrections for each of these. In addition, we apply the bridge sampling method of Meng and Wong. We find that a simulated version of Laplace's method, with local volume correction, furnishes an accurate approximation that is especially useful when likelihood function evaluations are costly. A simple bridge sampli...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/2965554

Computing Bayes Factors by Combining Simulation and Asymptotic Approximations

The numerical computation of a multivariate normal probability is often a difficult problem. This article describes a transformation that simplifies the problem and places it into a form that allows efficient calculation using standard numerical multiple integration algorithms. Test results are presented that compare implementations of two algorithms that use the transformation with currently available software.

Numerical Computation of Multivariate Normal Probabilities

Multivariate normal and t probabilities are needed for statistical inference in many applications. Modern statistical computation packages provide functions for the computation of these probabilities for problems with one or two variables. This book describes recently developed methods for accurate and efficient computation of the required probability values for problems with two or more variables. The book discusses methods for specialized problems as well as methods for general problems. The book includes examples that illustrate the probability computations for a variety of applications.

https://www.jstatsoft.org/htaccess.php?volume=33&type=b&issue=02&paper=true

Computation of Multivariate Normal and t Probabilities

This article compares methods for the numerical computation of multivariate t probabilities for hyper-rectangular integration regions. Methods based on acceptance-rejection, spherical-radial transformations, and separation-of-variables transformations are considered. Tests using randomly chosen problems show that the most efficient numerical methods use a transformation developed by Genz for multivariate normal probabilities. These methods allow moderately accurate multivariate t probabilities to be quickly computed for problems with as many as 20 variables. Methods for the noncentral multivariate t distribution are also described.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/1391171

Comparison of Methods for the Computation of Multivariate t Probabilities

This paper compares methods for the numerical computation of multivariate t-probabilities for hyperrectangular integration regions. Methods based on acceptance-rejection, spherical-radial transformations and separation-of-variables transformations are considered. Tests using randomly chosen problems show that the most efficient numerical methods use a transformation developed by Genz (1992) for multivariate normal probabilities. These methods allow moderately accurate multivariate t-probabilities to be quickly computed for problems with as many as twenty variables. Methods for the non-central multivariate t-distribution are also described.

http://math.wsu.edu/faculty/genz/papers/mvtcmpn.pdf

Methods for the Computation of Multivariate t-Probabilities ∗

An adaptive algorithm for numerical integration over hyperrectangular regions is described. The algorithm uses a globally adaptive subdivision strategy. Several precautions are introduced in the error estimation in order to improve the reliability. In each dimension more than one integration rule is made available to the user. The algorithm has been structured to allow ecient implementation on shared memory parallel computers.

http://www.math.wsu.edu/faculty/genz/papers/cuhre.pdf

Alan Genz

Papers

Numerical Computation of Multivariate Normal Probabilities

Computation of Multivariate Normal and t Probabilities

Comparison of Methods for the Computation of Multivariate t Probabilities

Methods for the Computation of Multivariate t-Probabilities ∗

An adaptive algorithm for the approximate calculation of multiple integrals