计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Unemployment: macroeconomic performance and the labour market

In the postwar era, developed economies have experienced two substantial trends in the net capital share of aggregate income: a rise during the last several decades, which is well-known, and a fall of comparable magnitude that continued until the 1970s, which is less well-known. Overall, the net capital share has increased since 1948, but when disaggregated this increase comes entirely from the housing sector: the contribution to net capital income from all other sectors has been zero or slightly negative, as the fall and rise have offset each other. When decomposed into a return on fixed assets and a residual share of pure profits, the fall and rise of capital income outside the housing sector in the US owes mostly to the residual: it is not paralleled by fluctuations in the measured value of non-housing capital. This observation-- combined with the theory of factor substitution, and simulation results from a multisector model--casts doubt on explanations of changes in the net capital share that rely on changes in the value of capital. There is greater support in the data for narratives that emphasize cyclical and trend variation in market power

Deciphering the fall and rise in the net capital share

In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that lowering tax distortions to levels prevailing in the United States would result in an increase in hours worked and output by more than 10 percent. At the same time, tax reductions would have positive spillovers to the euro area's trade partners, bolstering the case for tax reforms from a global perspective. Finally, we illustrate that, in the presence of heterogeneous households, distributional effects may be of importance when gauging the impact of tax reforms.

Tax Reform and Labour-Market Performance in the Euro Area: A Simulation-Based Analysis Using the New Area-Wide Model

textabstractIn Dutch: Naar een Nieuwe Wereldeconomie: voorstellen voor een internationaal economisch beleid, Rotterdam University Press, Rotterdam, 1965, XV + 335 p.\nIn Spanish: Hacia Una Economia Mundial: sugerencias para una politica economica internacional, Series Biblioteca de Economia No.7, Orbis, Barcelona, 1985, 242 p.

Shaping the World Economy. Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. By Jan Tinbergen. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 1962. pp. xvii, 330. Index. 4.00, cloth.

This paper seeks to understand labour share dynamics in Europe over the medium run. After documenting basic empirical regularities, we quantify the contribution of shifts in the sectoral and the employment composition of the economy to labour share movements. The findings from the shift-share analysis being on the descriptive side, we next identify the factors underlying labour share behaviour through a model-based approach. We proceed along the lines of Bentolila and Saint Paul (2003) but adopt a production function with capital-skill complementarity. We show that labour share movements are driven by a complex interplay of demand and supply conditions for capital and different skill categories of labour, the nature of technological progress and imperfect market structures. Based upon robust calibration, we show that most of the declining pattern in labour shares in nine EU15 Member States is governed by capital deepening in conjunction with capitalaugmenting technical progress and labour substitution across skill categories. Although institutional factors also play a significant role, they appear to be of somewhat less importance. To illustrate the relevance of the technological explanation we quantitatively assess the dynamic impact of a permanent reduction in the fraction of unskilled employment on the labour share. We find that, for a given elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled labour, the more skilled labour is complementary to capital, the more pronounced the decline in the labour share.

Understanding labour income share dynamics in Europe

This paper analyses the both the long and the short-run relation between government expenditure and potential output in EU countries. Having a satisfactory measurement of these relations has relevant implications for policy. From a long-term perspective, it improves the understanding of the links between output growth and public finances sustainability. Over a medium-to-short run horizon, it provides a benchmark to evaluate the stance of expenditure policy. In the analysis, the panel dimension of the data set is exploited in such a way: (i) to improve the power of statistical tests for the analysis of the dynamic properties of macroeconomic series through panel unit root and panel co-integration tests; (ii) to obtain country-specific information on adjustment dynamics by means of pooled mean group estimation. Results show that, over a sample comprising EU-15 countries over the 1970-2003 period, it cannot be rejected the hypothesis of a common long-term elasticity between cyclically-adjusted primary expenditure and potential output close to unity. The long-run elasticity is however not stable over time (it decreased considerably over the decades) and is significantly higher than unity in catching-up countries, in fast-aging countries, in low-debt countries, and in countries with weak numerical rules for the control of government spending. The average speed of adjustment of government expenditure to its long-term relation is 3 years, but there are significant differences across countries. Anglo-Saxon and Nordic countries exhibit in general a faster adjustment process, while adjustment in Southern European countries appears somehow slower.

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Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment

This paper provides an analysis of the labour market adjustment to the 2008-2009 recession in terms of employment, unemployment, hours worked and wages. It highlights differences in the response of employment and unemployment across countries and different socioeconomic groups. For all EU Member States, it provides evidence of the developments during the crisis of the monthly job finding and separation rates. This helps to assess whether the increase in unemployment is due to an increase of job separation or to a decline in the job finding rate. The paper discusses the risks of jobless growth and compares the dynamics of unemployment and employment across different periods. It provides evidence of an asymmetric response over the cycle, with recessions being characterised by more job destruction than by job creation in the following recoveries. The analysis of the wage dynamics during the recession suggests that there has been an adjustment in the compensation per employee led by the variable component; yet, this has not been sufficient to avoid the increase in the nominal unit labour costs due to labour hoarding.

http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_en/analisi_progammazione/working_papers/WP_Arpaia-Curci__2_.pdf

EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession

This paper provides an analysis of the labour market adjustment to the 2008-2009 recession. It highlights differences in the response of employment and unemployment across countries and different socioeconomic groups. For all EU Member States, it provides evidence of the developments during the crisis of the monthly job finding and separation rates. This helps to assess whether the increase in unemployment is due to an increase of job separation or to a decline in the job finding rate. The paper discusses the risks of jobless growth and compares the dynamics of unemployment and employment across different periods. It provides evidence of an asymmetric response over the cycle, with recessions being characterised by more job destruction than by job creation in the following recoveries. The analysis of the wage dynamics suggests that there has been an adjustment in the compensation per employee led by the variable component; yet, this has not been sufficient to avoid the increase in the nominal unit labour costs due to labour hoarding.

Both common macroeconomic shocks and country-specific developments have subjected the flexibility of wage setting mechanisms in the euro area to a stress test in recent years. Against this background, this paper takes a fresh look at wage flexibility in EMU and attempts to draw a few lessons from the experience of the early years. First, we set the stage for the analysis by providing a brief description of the stylised facts regarding nominal and real wage and unit labour cost developments in the euro area over the recent business cycle. Then, the paper presents an empirical assessment of wage inertia based on new econometric estimates of a Phillips-curve type wage equation across euro area countries and offers an interpretation of the main findings with respect to nominal and real wage flexibility. Finally, we investigate the cyclical responsiveness of relative competitive positions among euro area countries. We conclude that from a bird's eye perspective euro area wage and labour cost dynamics have been quite benign in the past couple of years. However, our estimates suggest that persistent cross-country differences in wage and labour cost developments have not always reflected warranted adjustment needs; they are rather indicative of an eventually insufficient degree of nominal and real wage flexibility in the euro area.

Alfonso Arpaia

Papers

Understanding labour income share dynamics in Europe

Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment

EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession

EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession

Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU