This study examined the existence of rational bubbles in oil prices by employing a frequency domain econophysics technique that have capacity to identify both explosive behaviour and bubbles in oil prices for the three largest oil future markets – WTI, Brent and OPEC basket. Our results show that the three prices experienced bubbles in four distinct periods. We attempt to provide some explanations on each of these bubbles using geopolitical, war and economic events. We equally noted that oil prices bubbles are largely influenced by the fact that oil is a major source of energy and is nonrenewable. The study observed that existence of bubbles have some economic consequences such as welfare loss resulting from distortion in prices and economic instability among others. We provide some policy recommendation

Examining Rational Bubbles in Oil Prices: Evidence from Frequency Domain Estimates

Este trabajo de investigacion analiza la integracion entre los mercados de petroleo de referencia internacional y mexicano.

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Integración entre mercados de petróleo de diferente calidad con base en las correlaciones condicionales dinámicas

Objetivo: Este trabajo estudia las trayectorias óptimas de consumo de personas en edad de jubilación que no pretenden heredar. Metodología: Se propone un modelo donde el número de años por vivir de un individuo jubilado es una variable aleatoria. Resultados: Se obtienen soluciones cerradas cuando el individuo depende de una sola fuente de recursos y cuenta o no con una cobertura por longevidad. Recomendaciones: El análisis aquí expuesto puede ayudar al diseño de mejores planes para el retiro. Limitaciones e implicaciones: Este estudio no considera fuerzas de mortalidad con muchos parámetros, los cuales capturan una mayor cantidad de causas de muerte pero que complican obtener soluciones cerradas. Originalidad: El trabajo utiliza una función de utilidad CRRA y considera diferentes fuerzas de mortalidad, estas se caracterizan por contar con un menor número de parámetros para determinar los planes óptimos de consumo. Conclusiones: las soluciones del caso II permiten mejorar los productos ofrecidos por las aseguradoras en beneficio de los asegurados, de la misma manera los gobiernos pueden buscar incidir en estos parámetros para incrementar el bienestar de los pensionados.

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Consumo óptimo en el retiro con diferentes leyes de mortalidad

This paper uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to obtain the decomposition in permanent and transient components of prices of the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, and the Brent oil of the North Sea. Moreover, Granger causality tests, impulse-response analysis, and variance decomposition are carried out.  The main findings are: 1) there are long-term relationships among these oil prices, 2) Brent oil mainly sets the market trend for the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, and 3) the yield-risk analysis shows that the Mexican crude oil blend offers the highest average yield and Brent provides the highest average risk premium. Keywords: Oil prices; econometric modeling, yield-risk analysis JEL Classifications: Q41, C51, G83

Short- and Long-Term Relations among Prices of the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, West Texas Intermediate, and Brent: Market Trend and Risk Premia, 2005-2016

Family networks have increased at an accelerated pace through social networking through social networking services, online platforms, and social media clubs. This paper develops a model of an economy populated by networks of families with similar preferences (the same functional form of the felicity or utility function) but family members differ in their deep parameters (compulsion for consumption and risk tolerance), which, in turn, leads to some kind o heterogeneity among the families. In this context, the problem of felicity (utility) maximization of the average family in the network is solved. The optimal path of consumption is obtained for the average family and graphical comparative static exercises are performed. Finally, the economic welfare of the typical family in a network is calculated and comparative static experiments are carried out. This approach improves the understanding of the consumption decision making of families interacting in social networking services.

Alfredo Omar Palafox-Roca

Papers

Short- and Long-Term Relations among Prices of the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, West Texas Intermediate, and Brent: Market Trend and Risk Premia, 2005-2016

Optimal consumption decisions of family networks with similar felicity functions