Showing papers by "Andrea F. Presbitero published in 2012"

Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries

Abstract: The global crisis and the expansionary government reaction in many countries has revamped the attention of policy makers and academics on the growth eects of large public debts. Recent empirical studies investigate the impact of public debt on growth in advanced and emerging countries. This paper aims at complementing the existing evidence focusing on developing countries, where the increase in domestic borrowing, already started before the crisis, requires a more comprehensive analysis, based not only on external debt, but on total public debt. Results on a panel of low- and middle-income countries over the period 1990-2007 show that public debt has a negative impact on output growth up to a threshold of 90 percent of GDP, beyond which its eect becomes irrelevant. This non-linear eect can be explained by country-specific factors since debt overhang is a growth constraint only in countries with sound macroeconomic policies and stable institutions.

External Imbalances and Financial Fragility in the Euro Area

Abstract: This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that the South in the euro zone has been fiscally irresponsible, and has failed to implement supply-side policies such as liberalizing labor markets and the market for services. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts raise some doubt about the validity of the thesis that the debt crisis in the Euro-zone is driven primarily by fiscal fragility in the South. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. Fiscal fragility and external imbalances explain a significant share of the widening spreads since the onset of the global financial crisis. However, differences in labor productivity growth between North and South assume a much relevant role since the Greek crisis erupted in 2010.

Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?

Abstract: This paper uses an instrumental variable approach to study whether public debt has a causal effect on economic growth in a sample of OECD countries The results are consistent with the existing literature that has found a negative correlation between debt and growth However, the link between debt and growth disappears once we instrument debt with a variable that captures valuation effects brought about by the interaction between foreign currency debt and exchange rate volatility We conduct a battery of robustness tests and show that our results are not affected by weak instrument problems and are robust to relaxing our exclusion restriction

Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries

Abstract: The potential consequences of the development of domestic debt markets in Low-Income Countries (LICs) are extremely relevant for policy-makers and international financial institutions, especially in light of a scaling-up of public investment in infrastructures. This paper introduces a new dataset on the stock of domestic debt in LICs over the period 1970-2010. With respect to the existing dataset, this one expands the country and time coverage, devotes a careful attention to the problem of the zeros and addresses some inconsistencies between the existing datasets. The descriptive analysis of the evolution of domestic debt in LICs, especially over the last two decades, points out some interesting patterns. The reliance on internal financing has partially offset the reduction in external debt granted by bilateral and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Domestic debt increased at a lower and less volatile pace in countries with better policies and institutions. This pattern is mirrored by a greater capital accumulation, a faster financial development, and a stronger output growth. This descriptive evidence supports the hypothesis that the development of the domestic debt market can bring benefits only in presence of a stable macroeconomic environment, lack of political uncertainty and a developed financial system.

Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System

Abstract: The global financial crisis, the weakening role of the dollar and the increasing international importance of China are calling for a reform of the international monetary system in the direction of greater multilateralism. To this end, we advance a proposal based on a greater role of the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and focus on the potential benefits that these could bring to Low-Income Countries (LICs). SDRs would be created exogenously - with a disproportionate allocation to LICs -, but also endogenously, through a substitution account and an overdraft facility. Finally, the paper discusses the superiority of this proposal in the context of the current foreign assistance framework.

The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Abstract: A major policy issue is whether troubles in the banking system re ected in the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 have spurred a credit crunch and, if so, how and why its severity has been different across markets and firms. In this paper, we tackle this issue by looking at the Italian case. We take advantage of a dataset on a large sample of manufacturing firms, observed quarterly between January 2008 and September 2009. Thanks to detailed information about loan applications and lending decisions, we are able to identify the occurrence of a credit crunch in Italy which has been found to be harsher in provinces with a large share of branches owned by distantly-managed banks. Inconsistent with the flight to quality hypothesis, however, we do not find evidence that economically weaker and smaller firms suffered more during the crisis period than during tranquil periods. By contrast, we find that large and healthy firms, the segment of borrowers which, according to theoretical predictions, are cream-skimmed by distantly-headquartered banks, were more intensely hit by the credit tightening in functionally distant credit markets than in the ones populated by less distant banks. This last result is consistent with the hypothesis of a home bias on the part of nationwide banks.

External imbalances and financial fragility in the euro area

Abstract: This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that the South in the euro zone has been fiscally irresponsible, and has failed to implement supply-side policies such as liberalizing labor markets and the market for services. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts raise some doubt about the validity of the thesis that the debt crisis in the Eurozone is driven primarily by fiscal fragility in the South. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. Fiscal fragility and external imbalances explain a significant share of the widening spreads since the onset of the global financial crisis. However, differences in labor productivity growth between North and South assume a much relevant role since the Greek crisis erupted in 2010.