Showing papers by "Andrew A. Lacis published in 1992"

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

Abstract: The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols

Abstract: It is illustrated how climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols depends on aerosol properties. The climate forcing is a function of aerosols size distribution, but the size dependence can be described well by a single parameter: the area-weighted mean radius, r(eff). If r(eff) is greater than about 2 microns, the global average greenhouse effect of the aerosols exceeds the albedo effect, causing a surface heating. The aerosol climate forcing is less sensitive to other characteristics of the size distribution, the aerosol composition, and the altitude of the aerosols. Thus stratospheric aerosol forcing can be defined accurately from measurements of aerosol extinction over a broad wavelength range.

Intercomparison and interpretation of surface energy fluxes in atmospheric general circulation models

Abstract: Responses of the surface energy budgets and hydrologic cycles of 19 atmospheric general circulation models to an imposed, globally uniform sea surface temperature perturbation of 4 K were analyzed. The responses of the simulated surface energy budgets are extremely diverse and are closely linked to the responses of the simulated hydrologic cycles. The response of the net surface energy flux is not controlled by cloud effects; instead, it is determined primarily by the response of the latent heat flux. The prescribed warming of the oceans leads to major increases in the atmospheric water vapor content and the rates of evaporation and precipitation. The increased water vapor amount drastically increases the downwelling IR radiation at the earth's surface, but the amount of the change varies dramatically from one model to another.

The abundance and distribution of water vapor in the Jovian troposphere as inferred from Voyager IRIS observations

Abstract: The Voyager IRIS spectra of the Jovian North Equatorial Belt (NEB) hot spots are reanalyzed using a radiative transfer model which includes the full effects of anisotropic multiple scattering by clouds. The atmospheric model includes the three thermochemically predicted cloud layers, NH3, NH4SH, and H2O. Spectrally dependent cloud extinction is modeled using Mie theory and the refractive indices of NH3 ice, NH4SH ice, water, and H2O ice. The upper tropospheric temperature profile, gas abundances, height-dependent parahydrogen profile, and vertical distribution of NH3 cloud opacity are retrieved from an analysis of the far-infrared (180-1200/cm) IRIS observations. With these properties constrained, the 5-micron (1800-2300/cm) observations are analyzed to determine the atmospheric and cloud structure of the deeper atmosphere (P of greater than 1.5 bars). The results show that the abundance of water is at least 1.5 times solar with 2 times solar (0.00276 mixing ratio relative to H2) providing the best-fit to the Voyager IRIS hot spot observations.