In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability-31xc1cf4d3.pdf

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Sustainable Development Goals

Foreword 1. Prosperity Lost 2. The Age of Irresponsibility 3. Redefining Prosperity 4. The Dilemma of Growth 5. The Myth of Decoupling 6. The 'Iron Cage' of Consumerism 7. Keynesianism and the 'Green New Deal' 8. Ecological Macro-Economics 9. Flourishing - within Limits 10. Governance for Prosperity 11. The Transition to a Sustainable Economy 12. A Lasting Prosperity Appendices References Endnotes

Prosperity without growth : economics for a finite planet

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

/pdf/product-design-and-business-model-strategies-for-a-circular-27xi6fbnmo.pdf

Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

Waste is a complex societal problem and its management brings together various stakeholders. However, lack of sufficient information on the quantities and types of materials in the waste stream can make sustainable waste management difficult. Since waste in one sector can be valuable as a resource in another, there is a need to understand the distribution of materials within the resource stream, especially those that go to landfill. Current work is seeking to address this: whereas much material is already recycled, this is not the only management option and there remain several problematic materials and components that need to be removed from residual waste. This paper, the first of two case studies, presents a more comprehensive waste composition specification to improve the management of municipal waste. In developing the approach, waste composition specifications currently in use were reviewed and compared with the solid municipal waste collected at community recycling centres and from kerbsides. Key p...

/pdf/municipal-solid-waste-as-a-resource-part-1-specifying-4zm9zwxa1t.pdf

Municipal solid waste as a resource: part 1 – specifying composition

Introduction: The Industrial Ecology Paradigm

Water issues have been gaining importance on the global political agenda in recent years. Nevertheless, water scarcity issues are inherently local. The impact of tourism activities on local water resources remains an understudied issue. Tourism is highly heterogeneous and offers a plethora of different products which cater for different tastes and budgets at different times of the year. Tourism products differ in terms of their economic impact but also in terms of their demand for water and other resources.Direct use of water by the tourism industry, which includes water used in hotels, golf courses, water parks and other tourism establishments, is relatively well understood. In addition to this volume of water, substantially more is required indirectly to produce food and other products which cater for tourism demand. Quantifying both the direct and indirect components is essential to understanding total water demand and productivity in the tourism sector. The common perception in Cyprus and other tourism economies is that high-spending tourists represent the most desirable market segment. However, this assertion is rarely based on economic yield assessments and ignores environmental impacts. The present research uses Environmental Input-Output (EIO) analysis along with detailed tourism expenditure data in order to quantify economic and water use synergies and trade-offs, for different tourism markets in Cyprus. The results suggest that different market segments vary significantly in terms of their economic return in relation to total water use. Consequently, there are important sustainability implications for policymakers and destination managers in water scarce destinations.

Economic impact and water use trade-offs and synergies: a case study of the cyprus tourism sector


Purpose
This viewpoint paper addresses the use of sustainability frameworks in embedding education for sustainability into the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs). The purpose of this paper is to explore the paradox that sustainability frameworks must facilitate transformation of existing structures whilst also being well-enough aligned with current conditions to be readily adopted by today’s HEIs.


Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a set of four criteria for assessing the suitability of sustainability frameworks for use across the curriculum: relevance to current curricula, language, institutional fit and concept of the future. Using these criteria, this paper assesses how various frameworks align with the current (unsustainable) state of affairs and their transformative potential. The frameworks assessed are: the sustainable development goals (SDGs), the three pillars framework and the capitals approach.


Findings
This paper finds that each of the frameworks has strengths and weaknesses: the SDGs and the capitals approach perform well on alignment but less well on transformational criteria. Conversely, the three pillars framework performs well on transformation criteria but less well on alignment criteria. By applying the criteria set out in this paper, the authors hope those working to embed sustainability into the curricula of HEIs will be better equipped to navigate the tensions presented by sustainability transitions.


Originality/value
Using a novel set of criteria for assessing sustainability frameworks, this paper provides guidance that was previously lacking in education for sustainability professionals who are attempting to embed sustainability into the curriculum at HEIs.


Assessing the suitability of sustainability frameworks for embedding sustainability in higher education curricula: pragmatism versus transformation

What does it mean to live well in a low-carbon society? Clearly, the challenges of climate change and resource depletion are not just technological. Behaviours and lifestyles will also need to change. Consumption levels in richer nations look unsustainable when viewed from the perspective of global equity within carbon limits. A world in which a projected nine billion people all aspire to the levels of material comfort expected in the affluent West looks almost impossible to achieve. And yet it is also unrealistic to suppose that people will voluntarily forego the capabilities at least to live a decent life. Sustainable lives must still be worth living. What it means to live well is always going to be a subject for debate. But several things are clear at the outset. Firstly, it is nonsense to suppose that people can flourish without food, clothing and shelter. Sustainable living must deliver the material provisions necessary for a reasonable level of nutrition and physiological health. But equally it is clear that material needs do not exhaust our appetite for material goods. Much of what we mean by living well can be characterised as social and psychological – rather than material – in nature. Once material needs are met, people’s ability to flourish depends on their ‘ability to give and receive love, to enjoy the respect of [their] peers, to contribute useful work, and to have a sense of belonging and trust in the community’ ( Jackson, 2009).

Angela Druckman

Papers

Municipal solid waste as a resource: part 1 – specifying composition

Introduction: The Industrial Ecology Paradigm

Economic impact and water use trade-offs and synergies: a case study of the cyprus tourism sector

Assessing the suitability of sustainability frameworks for embedding sustainability in higher education curricula: pragmatism versus transformation

of a Decent Life