In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Sustainable Development Goals

Foreword 1. Prosperity Lost 2. The Age of Irresponsibility 3. Redefining Prosperity 4. The Dilemma of Growth 5. The Myth of Decoupling 6. The 'Iron Cage' of Consumerism 7. Keynesianism and the 'Green New Deal' 8. Ecological Macro-Economics 9. Flourishing - within Limits 10. Governance for Prosperity 11. The Transition to a Sustainable Economy 12. A Lasting Prosperity Appendices References Endnotes

Prosperity without growth : economics for a finite planet

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

Gross Domestic Product is often used as a proxy for societal well-being in the context of policy development. Its shortcomings in this context are, however, well documented and numerous alternative indicator sets have been developed. Despite this, there is limited evidence of widespread use of these alternative indicator sets by people working in policy areas relevant to societal wellbeing. Civil servants are an important group of indicator end-users, and better understanding their views about measuring societal wellbeing may contribute to broader discussions of what factors determine indicator use and influence in policy decision-making. Taking the UK as a case study, we ask: what views exist among civil servants in the UK about measuring societal well-being?
To answer this question, we used a bootstrapped Q methodology, interviewing 20 civil servants to elicit their views about measuring societal well-being. Three distinct discourses emerged from our analysis: one that was concerned about the consequences of ignoring natural, social and human capital in decision making; one that emphasised opportunity and autonomy as key determinants of well-being; and one that focused on the technical aspects of measuring societal well-being. Each of these discourses has direct implications for the way that we integrate societal wellbeing into policy making, and highlights the potential benefits of including end-users in indicator development and strategy, more broadly.

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Understanding the (non-)Use of Societal Wellbeing Indicators in National Policy Development: What Can We Learn from Civil Servants? A UK Case Study

Supply chain optimization and analysis of Hermetia illucens (black soldier fly) bioconversion of surplus foodstuffs

Waste is intricate to manage. With greater attention now being paid to the use of waste as a resource, there is an increasing need to develop sustainable and secure management options for the most complex material resource streams. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to look to those materials, which owing to their complex structure have not traditionally been recycled, and so remain in the residual waste stream. This paper presents a methodology that has been developed to enable local authorities, or their equivalents, to assess the environmental and economic feasibility of collecting complex material streams separately, in order to improve their management of municipal solid waste. The methodology utilises available data from a number of sources, to determine the feasibility of options available. It is applied to a case study in Surrey, UK, in relation to the management of absorbent hygiene products. Currently this waste is collected as part of the residual stream, and dealt with either through la...

Municipal solid waste as a resource: part 2 – case study in sustainable management

Measuring progress towards Carbon Reduction in the UK. Paper presented to the International Ecological Footprint Conference.

Background
Materialism is associated with a broad range of negative outcomes for individuals, societies, and the planet. We therefore experimentally tested whether a three-session intervention could cause sustained reductions in materialism.

Methods
Employed young adults (aged 18-30) in three European countries (UK, Italy, Hungary) were either encouraged to set intrinsic goals and reflect on self-transcendence values or were assigned to an active control group. We measured materialistic value and goal orientations, and we followed up two months after the completion of the intervention.

Results
Participants in the experimental group significantly decreased in their materialistic goal orientation by the end of the intervention and 2 months later, but showed no significant changes in their materialistic value orientation. Among the active control group, no changes in materialistic goal or value orientations were noted. Findings were independent of the cultures studied, of commitment to, self-concordance with, and progress made on chosen goals, and of engagement in the intervention.

Conclusion
This study demonstrated that encouraging and activating self-transcendence values and intrinsic goals is an effective strategy to reduce a materialistic goal orientation. This result was robust across a range of potential moderating factors, which suggests this intervention may be widely useful to reduce a materialistic goal orientations. We discuss why the intervention may have reduced materialistic goal orientations but not materialistic value orientations.

Angela Druckman

Papers

Understanding the (non-)Use of Societal Wellbeing Indicators in National Policy Development: What Can We Learn from Civil Servants? A UK Case Study

Supply chain optimization and analysis of Hermetia illucens (black soldier fly) bioconversion of surplus foodstuffs

Municipal solid waste as a resource: part 2 – case study in sustainable management

Measuring progress towards Carbon Reduction in the UK. Paper presented to the International Ecological Footprint Conference.

Goals for Good: Testing an Intervention to Reduce Materialism in Three European Countries.