Showing papers by "Anthony Patt published in 2011"

Are adaptation studies effective, and what can enhance their practical impact?

Abstract: In this piece we explore the interface between adaptation research and adaptation policy, planning, and investment. We ask, ‘How is research on adaptation informing the nascent domain of adaptation policy and practice?’ To inform this discussion, we extract a few of the more salient lessons from four different domains of adaptation research: risk assessment and impact response, social vulnerability and adaptive capacity, resilience, and the science of decision making and policy implementation. Through a few select case studies of adaptation planning, we explore the extent to which we see these lessons taking hold in adaptation practice. The cases reviewed suggest that there may be significant differences in the type of research that informs planning in more industrial contexts compared to the developing world. Risk assessment and cost/benefit analysis appear to dominate adaptation planning in the industrialized world, while insights concerning governance, the social and economic constraints to adaptation, and building systemic resilience are featured more in planning documents from the developing world. The focus on risk assessment and associated technological interventions in the industrialized world illustrates the difficulty of addressing underlying structural and cognitive barriers to change, as well as the policy implications of conceptualizing adaptation as an outcome rather than a dynamic process. More broadly, the challenge of adaptation now offers an opportunity for innovative and collaborative research in which networks of academics, policy makers, at-risk populations, and other stakeholders actively participate in understanding the process of adaptation, experimenting in responses to change and learning from that process. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 141–153 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.100 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Solar power investment in North Africa: Reducing perceived risks

Abstract: Climate protection targets for mid-century imply a need to scale up European renewable power production to a level that may exceed the available land area within Europe's borders. One attractive solution, from a cost and feasibility perspective, is the development of large-scale concentrating solar power plants in North Africa and the Middle East. However, these developments are seen by many people as risky, in terms of both European energy security, and in terms of the risks faced by project developers. In this paper, we focus on the latter of theses issues. First, we examine the risks that project developers are most concerned about, and identify these as being associated not with terrorism and rogue state behavior, but rather with corruption and inefficient and unpredictable bureaucracies. Second, we identify a range of policy approaches that can reduce these risks, either by mitigating their consequences, or by seeking to eliminate their underlying causes. Third, we investigate the financial benefits of taking such steps to reduce or eliminate investment risks. We find the potential savings to European electricity consumers to exceed €200 billion.

Regional integration to support full renewable power deployment for Europe by 2050

Abstract: The European Union is currently working on a achieving a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, and has a policy framework in place that relies primarily on individual Member States implementing their own policy instruments for renewable energy support, within a larger context of a tradable quota system. For 2050 the target is likely to be more stringent, given the goal of reducing European carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by then. Preliminary analysis has suggested that achieving the 2020 target through renewable power deployment will be far less expensive and far more reliable if a regional approach is taken, in order to balance intermittent supply, and to take advantage of high renewable potentials off the European mainland. Analysis based on modeling is combined with the results of stakeholder interviews to highlight the key options and governance challenges associated with developing such a regional approach.

Moving towards 100% renewable electricity in Europe & North Africa by 2050

Abstract: In spring 2010, European and international climate experts at PwC, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis published 100% Renewable Electricity - A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa. The report examined the potential for powering Europe and North Africa with renewable electricity exclusively by 2050. It set out a series of financial, market, infrastructure and government policy steps that would need to occur if such a "what if" vision was to be achieved. Now, a year on, this latest report provides a complementary analysis to the original roadmap. PwC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, look at whether the vision of 100% renewable electricity has moved closer or further away as a result of current and recent developments over the last 12 months. The report, intended to support the wider debate in this area, examines five areas that are most critical to achieving progress and, through the lens of these five areas, looks at the impact of recent and current events.

Report on uncertainty methods

Abstract: The issue of uncertainty is critical for climate change science and policy. A great deal of research analysis has gone into identifying the scope and character of uncertainty in climate change itself, in how analysts and assessment teams can and should communicate that uncertainty to policy- and decision-makers, and how policy- and decision-makers can then incorporate nowledge about the sources and magnitude of uncertainty in their choices. The primary purpose of this deliverable is to summarize that literature, and to synthesize it in a manner that is useful for the Mediation project, namely in improving the practice of assessing adaptaion needs and options, and in building a useful decision-support platform or system. The report starts with a user-driven focus, summarizing the literatures on both descriptive and normative models of decision-making under uncertainty, in order to identify the most effective and esential information inputs for each of these models. The report then summarizes some of the main guidance documents on communicating uncertanty, prepared for or in use by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United States government, and the Dutch government. Fially, the report synthesizes these previous studies for use in the Mediation project and its users by focusing on three essential characteristics of uncertainty communication: parsimony, personalization, and practicality. It identifies specific strategies for using these three criteria to ensure that assessments for climate adaptation are salient, credible, and legitimate, and thus ultimately construtive inputs into policy- and decision-making.