Showing papers by "Anthony Rosati published in 2015"
TL;DR: In this paper, a suite of centennial-scale 1990 radiatively forced numerical climate simulations from three GFDL coupled models comprising the Climate Model, version 2.0-Ocean (CM2-O), model suite is used to characterize impacts on heat in the ocean climate system from transient ocean mesoscale eddies.
Abstract: The authors characterize impacts on heat in the ocean climate system from transient ocean mesoscale eddies. Their tool is a suite of centennial-scale 1990 radiatively forced numerical climate simulations from three GFDL coupled models comprising the Climate Model, version 2.0–Ocean (CM2-O), model suite. CM2-O models differ in their ocean resolution: CM2.6 uses a 0.1° ocean grid, CM2.5 uses an intermediate grid with 0.25° spacing, and CM2-1deg uses a nominal 1.0° grid.Analysis of the ocean heat budget reveals that mesoscale eddies act to transport heat upward in a manner that partially compensates (or offsets) for the downward heat transport from the time-mean currents. Stronger vertical eddy heat transport in CM2.6 relative to CM2.5 accounts for the significantly smaller temperature drift in CM2.6. The mesoscale eddy parameterization used in CM2-1deg also imparts an upward heat transport, yet it differs systematically from that found in CM2.6. This analysis points to the fundamental role that ocea...
249 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis.
Abstract: The seasonal predictability of extratropical storm tracks in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL)’s high-resolution climate model has been investigated using an average predictability time analysis. The leading predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are the ENSO-related spatial patterns for both boreal winter and summer, and the second predictable components are mostly due to changes in external radiative forcing and multidecadal oceanic variability. These two predictable components for both seasons show significant correlation skill for all leads from 0 to 9 months, while the skill of predicting the boreal winter storm track is consistently higher than that of the austral winter. The predictable components of extratropical storm tracks are dynamically consistent with the predictable components of the upper troposphere jet flow for both seasons. Over the region with strong storm-track signals in North America, the model is able to predict the changes in statistics of ex...
75 citations
TL;DR: The authors examined two sets of high-resolution coupled model forecasts starting from no-tropical cyclone (TC) and correct-TC-statistics initial conditions to understand the role of TC events on climate prediction.
Abstract: This study examines two sets of high-resolution coupled model forecasts starting from no-tropical cyclone (TC) and correct-TC-statistics initial conditions to understand the role of TC events on climate prediction. While the model with no-TC initial conditions can quickly spin-up TCs within a week, the initial conditions with a corrected TC distribution can produce more accurate forecast of sea surface temperature up to 1.5 months and maintain larger ocean heat content up to 6 months due to enhanced mixing from continuous interactions between initialized and forecasted TCs and the evolving ocean states. The TC-enhanced tropical ocean mixing strengthens the meridional heat transport in the Southern Hemisphere driven primarily by Southern Ocean surface Ekman fluxes but weakens the Northern Hemisphere poleward transport in this model. This study suggests a future plausible initialization procedure for seamless weather-climate prediction when individual convection-permitting cyclone initialization is incorporated into this TC-statistics-permitting framework.
8 citations