University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

About: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research is a nonprofit organization based out in Boulder, Colorado, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Radio occultation & Ionosphere. The organization has 804 authors who have published 1489 publications receiving 67054 citations. The organization is also known as: UCAR.

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Abstract: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Ocean Acidification: The Other CO 2 Problem

Abstract: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO2 emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO2 conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO2 and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.

The Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sublayer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes

Abstract: The step-mountain eta model has shown a surprising skill in forecasting severe storms. Much of the credit for this should be given to the Betts and Miller (hereafter referred to as BM) convection scheme and the Mellor-Yamada (hereafter referred to as MY) planetary boundary layer (PBL) formulation. However, the eta model was occasionally producing heavy spurious precipitation over warm water, as well as widely spread light precipitation over oceans. In addition, the convective forcing, particularly the shallow one, could lead to negative entropy changes. As the possible causes of the problems, the convection scheme, the processes at the air-water interface, and the MY level 2 and level 2.5 PBL schemes were reexamined. A major revision of the BM scheme was made, a new marine viscous sublayer scheme was designed, and the MY schemes were retuned. The deep convective regimes are postulated to be characterized by a parameter called “cloud efficiency.” The relaxation time is extended for low cloud effic...

Changes in precipitation with climate change

Abstract: There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmo- spheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate mod- els and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmo- spheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

GPS Meteorology: Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Water Vapor Using the Global Positioning System

Abstract: We present a new approach to remote sensing of water vapor based on the global positioning system (GPS). Geodesists and geophysicists have devised methods for estimating the extent to which signals propagating from GPS satellites to ground-based GPS receivers are delayed by atmospheric water vapor. This delay is parameterized in terms of a time-varying zenith wet delay (ZWD) which is retrieved by stochastic filtering of the GPS data. Given surface temperature and pressure readings at the GPS receiver, the retrieved ZWD can be transformed with very little additional uncertainty into an estimate of the integrated water vapor (IWV) overlying that receiver. Networks of continuously operating GPS receivers are being constructed by geodesists, geophysicists, government and military agencies, and others in order to implement a wide range of positioning capabilities. These emerging GPS networks offer the possibility of observing the horizontal distribution of IWV or, equivalently, precipitable water with unprecedented coverage and a temporal resolution of the order of 10 min. These measurements could be utilized in operational weather forecasting and in fundamental research into atmospheric storm systems, the hydrologic cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate change. Specially designed, dense GPS networks could be used to sense the vertical distribution of water vapor in their immediate vicinity. Data from ground-based GPS networks could be analyzed in concert with observations of GPS satellite occultations by GPS receivers in low Earth orbit to characterize the atmosphere at planetary scale.