Showing papers by "Arijit Roy published in 2019"

Assessing the vulnerability of Oak (Quercus) forest ecosystems under projected climate and land use land cover changes in Western Himalaya

Abstract: The current study focuses on the impacts of projected climate change scenarios and land change dynamics on the suitable habitat of some dominant Oak species (Quercus leucotrichophora, Quercus semecarpifolia, and Quercus floribunda) in western Himalaya. Two IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios viz. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from a suite of Global Climate Models best suited for Himalaya were used to model the changes in the suitable bioclimatic envelop of these Oak species in the western Himalayas for their probability current distributions and potential future distributions (2070) with the help of ensemble modelling in R platform. The formations of projected distribution areas for these species under climate change exhibits a north-eastward shift and a significant decrease in their climatic niche under projected climate change across both RCP’s, with RCP 4.5 showing increased loss of climatic niche (fundamental niche) of Oak species compared to RCP 8.5. The study also captures the footprints of current and projected land use land cover dynamics on the current and future distribution ranges of each Oak species in Western Himalaya which is observed to adversely affect the Oak forests by further reducing the extent of their realised niche.

Western Himalayan Forests in Climate Change Scenario

Abstract: The Himalayan mountain range is amongst the largest, newest and highest mountain chains on earth that form over 2400-km-long arch from east to west direction in the north of South Asia. Himalaya is home to over hundred million people with a small population inhabiting very high altitudes. The range prompts orographic precipitation and impacts weather of the region including the South Asian monsoon, acts as a storage of water in the form of snow and ice and goes about as a wellspring of vast rivers/waterways, for example, Ganges, Indus and Brahmaputra, thus making it the ‘water tower’ for millions of people of the Indo-Gangetic plains. In addition to this, they act as major stores of valued biodiversity resources due to their unique location and physiographic features and are a centre of age-old human cultural diversity. However, the Himalayan mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to their young and fragile nature coupled with sharp gradients; with the increase in population pressure, natural and socioeconomic systems in these mountain regions are at threat, especially with reference to rapid globalization. The quick change in the biological community, driven by both natural and anthropogenic determinants, represents a remarkable danger not exclusively to the source of revenue of the native people, biota and art but also to the people living in the downstream that are dependent on these natural resources and ultimately to the global environment.

Himalayan Spatial Biodiversity Information System

Abstract: Spatial distribution of environmental resource and its management issues are determined by complex processes and relationships. It involves several interrelating elements with many attributes and a dynamic behavior that required advanced spatial analytical capabilities in the GIS software. The technological solutions required to analyze the system include spatially distributed simulation and optimization models, interactive information system, decision support tools, and expert systems based on geospatial technologies. The primary paradigm of a GIS is the map, an inherently static concept of limited attributes. While modern GIS extends the scope of what can be done within this paradigm toward digital cartography considerably, elaborate applications can be built within existing GIS systems and powerful and flexible tool that involves spatial elements can be developed for different environmental applications. The Eastern Himalayan region is known as one of the global biodiversity hotspots. It includes several Global 200 eco-regions, two Endemic Bird Areas, and several centers for plant diversity. The high biological diversity of the Himalaya is mainly due to the multiple biogeographic origins. The climate variability as a result of being associated with the huge, complex, and steep terrain also gives the Himalayan region a plethora of habitats for the occurrence of the biodiversity hotspot in the region. Apart from being a storehouse of natural resources, the Himalaya is also prone to innumerable natural and anthropogenically induced disasters. This is evident by the recurrent calamities like Kedarnath tragedy, which results in huge loss of life and property.