Nature is under siege. In the last 10,000 y the human population has grown from 1 million to 7.8 billion. Much of Earth’s arable lands are already in agriculture (1), millions of acres of tropical forest are cleared each year (2, 3), atmospheric CO2 levels are at their highest concentrations in more than 3 million y (4), and climates are erratically and steadily changing from pole to pole, triggering unprecedented droughts, fires, and floods across continents. Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million y ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished.

Ongoing losses have been clearly demonstrated for better-studied groups of organisms. Terrestrial vertebrate population sizes and ranges have contracted by one-third, and many mammals have experienced range declines of at least 80% over the last century (5). A 2019 assessment suggests that half of all amphibians are imperiled (2.5% of which have recently gone extinct) (6). Bird numbers across North America have fallen by 2.9 billion since 1970 (7). Prospects for the world’s coral reefs, beyond the middle of this century, could scarcely be more dire (8). A 2020 United Nations report estimated that more than a million species are in danger of extinction over the next few decades (9), but also see the more bridled assessments in refs. 10 and 11.

Although a flurry of reports has drawn attention to declines in insect abundance, biomass, species richness, and range sizes (e.g., refs. 12⇓⇓⇓⇓⇓–18; for reviews see refs. 19 and 20), whether the rates of declines for insects are on par with or exceed those for other groups remains unknown. There are still too … 

[↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: david.wagner{at}uconn.edu.

 [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/2/e2023989118.full.pdf

Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts

We review changes in the status of butterflies in Europe, focusing on long-running population data available for the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Belgium, based on standardized monitoring transects. In the United Kingdom, 8% of resident species have become extinct, and since 1976 overall numbers declined by around 50%. In the Netherlands, 20% of species have become extinct, and since 1990 overall numbers in the country declined by 50%. Distribution trends showed that butterfly distributions began decreasing long ago, and between 1890 and 1940, distributions declined by 80%. In Flanders (Belgium), 20 butterflies have become extinct (29%), and between 1992 and 2007 overall numbers declined by around 30%. A European Grassland Butterfly Indicator from 16 European countries shows there has been a 39% decline of grassland butterflies since 1990. The 2010 Red List of European butterflies listed 38 of the 482 European species (8%) as threatened and 44 species (10%) as near threatened (note that 47 species were not assessed). A country level analysis indicates that the average Red List rating is highest in central and mid-Western Europe and lowest in the far north of Europe and around the Mediterranean. The causes of the decline of butterflies are thought to be similar in most countries, mainly habitat loss and degradation and chemical pollution. Climate change is allowing many species to spread northward while bringing new threats to susceptible species. We describe examples of possible conservation solutions and a summary of policy changes needed to conserve butterflies and other insects.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/2/e2002551117.full.pdf

The decline of butterflies in Europe: Problems, significance, and possible solutions.

Butterflies and Moths of North America

Agriculture and climate change are reshaping insect biodiversity worldwide

1. Insects have emerged as causes célèbres for widespread concern about human effects on global biodiversity. Here, we consider how insects provide opportunities both to understand the ecological effects of global change and to enhance environmental conservation.

Insect responses to global change offer signposts for biodiversity and conservation

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/2/e2002543117.full.pdf

Insects and recent climate change

Insects have diversified through 400 million years of Earth’s changeable climate, yet recent and ongoing shifts in patterns of temperature and precipitation pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change, while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared to changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions and raise questions about the utility of temperate mountains as refugia during the Anthropocene. We consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work. Significance statement Anthropogenic climate change poses multiple threats to society and biodiversity, and challenges our understanding of the resilience of the natural world. We discuss recent ideas and evidence on this issue and conclude that the impacts of climate change on insects in particular have the potential to be more severe than might have been expected a decade ago. Finally, we suggest practical measures that include the protection of diverse portfolios of species, not just those inhabiting what are currently the most pristine areas.

/pdf/insects-and-recent-climate-change-mq6lxf35b5.pdf

Author(s): Halsch, CA; Shapiro, AM; Thorne, JH; Waetjen, DP; Forister, ML | Abstract: 1. The changing climate is altering species distributions with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene. 2. Agraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past 100 years in the western U.S.A. Time series analysis is combined with species distribution modelling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios. 3. Time series analyses from the western U.S.A. show that urban development has a positive association with year of colonisation (the host plant Passiflora is an ornamental in gardens). Colonisation was also associated positively and to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, whereas a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates after establishment. 4. Species distribution models vary by region. In the eastern U.S.A., the butterfly is primarily limited by minimum temperatures in the winter and host availability later in the season. Eastern U.S. projected expansion broadly follows the expectation of poleward distributional shifts, especially for the butterfly's maximum annual extent. Western U.S. distributions are limited by the host plant, which in turn is dependent on urban centres. Projected western U.S. expansion is not limited to a single direction and is driven by urban centres becoming more suitable for the host plant. 5. These results demonstrate the value of combining time series with spatial modelling, at the same time as incorporating biotic interactions, aiming to understand and predict shifting geographical ranges in the Anthropocene.

/pdf/a-winner-in-the-anthropocene-changing-host-plant-41noam8p2y.pdf

A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographical range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly

The changing climate is altering the geographic distributions of species around the world with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene. Agraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past one hundred years in the western United States. We combine time series analysis with species distribution modeling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios. In the western US, where we have time series and geographic data, urban development has a positive influence (the host plant is an ornamental in gardens), being associated with year of colonization. Colonization was also associated to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, while a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates. Across the country, the butterfly is primarily limited by host availability and positively affected by human presence. Perhaps counter-intuitively for a largely tropical ectotherm, current effects of a warming climate (in the years post-colonization) are either negative (on population growth rate) or indirect, likely mediated through availability of areas that can support the host. Under future climate scenarios, conditions are predicted to become more suitable for Passiflora in many urban areas, which would likely result in further expansion of A. vanillae during the dispersive season. These results illustrate the value of combining time series with spatial modeling to understand and predict shifting geographic ranges in the Anthropocene.

/pdf/a-winner-in-the-anthropocene-changing-host-plant-40gb81prdo.pdf

Arthur M. Shapiro

Papers

Insects and recent climate change

Insects and recent climate change

A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographical range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly

A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographic range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly