In this paper we focus on a linear optimization problem with uncertainties, having expectations in the objective and in the set of constraints. We present a modular framework to obtain an approximate solution to the problem that is distributionally robust and more flexible than the standard technique of using linear rules. Our framework begins by first affinely extending the set of primitive uncertainties to generate new linear decision rules of larger dimensions and is therefore more flexible. Next, we develop new piecewise-linear decision rules that allow a more flexible reformulation of the original problem. The reformulated problem will generally contain terms with expectations on the positive parts of the recourse variables. Finally, we convert the uncertain linear program into a deterministic convex program by constructing distributionally robust bounds on these expectations. These bounds are constructed by first using different pieces of information on the distribution of the underlying uncertainties to develop separate bounds and next integrating them into a combined bound that is better than each of the individual bounds.

/pdf/distributionally-robust-optimization-and-its-tractable-457x566k95.pdf

Distributionally Robust Optimization and Its Tractable Approximations

In this paper, we introduce an approach for constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization using new deviation measures for random variables termed the forward and backward deviations. These deviation measures capture distributional asymmetry and lead to better approximations of chance constraints. Using a linear decision rule, we also propose a tractable approximation approach for solving a class of multistage chance-constrained stochastic linear optimization problems. An attractive feature of the framework is that we convert the original model into a second-order cone program, which is computationally tractable both in theory and in practice. We demonstrate the framework through an application of a project management problem with uncertain activity completion time.

/pdf/a-robust-optimization-perspective-on-stochastic-programming-4ik9z9i2n2.pdf

A Robust Optimization Perspective on Stochastic Programming

We describe a two-stage robust optimization approach for solving network flow and design problems with uncertain demand. In two-stage network optimization, one defers a subset of the flow decisions until after the realization of the uncertain demand. Availability of such a recourse action allows one to come up with less conservative solutions compared to single-stage optimization. However, this advantage often comes at a price: two-stage optimization is, in general, significantly harder than single-stage optimization.

For network flow and design under demand uncertainty, we give a characterization of the first-stage robust decisions with an exponential number of constraints and prove that the corresponding separation problem is NP-hard even for a network flow problem on a bipartite graph. We show, however, that if the second-stage network topology is totally ordered or an arborescence, then the separation problem is tractable.

Unlike single-stage robust optimization under demand uncertainty, two-stage robust optimization allows one to control conservatism of the solutions by means of an allowed “budget for demand uncertainty.” Using a budget of uncertainty, we provide an upper bound on the probability of infeasibility of a robust solution for a random demand vector.

We generalize the approach to multicommodity network flow and design, and give applications to lot-sizing and location-transportation problems. By projecting out second-stage flow variables, we define an upper bounding problem for the two-stage min-max-min optimization problem. Finally, we present computational results comparing the proposed two-stage robust optimization approach with single-stage robust optimization as well as scenario-based two-stage stochastic optimization.

Two-Stage Robust Network Flow and Design Under Demand Uncertainty

Robust Optimization is a rapidly developing methodology for handling optimization problems affected by non-stochastic “uncertain-but- bounded” data perturbations. In this paper, we overview several selected topics in this popular area, specifically, (1) recent extensions of the basic concept of robust counterpart of an optimization problem with uncertain data, (2) tractability of robust counterparts, (3) links between RO and traditional chance constrained settings of problems with stochastic data, and (4) a novel generic application of the RO methodology in Robust Linear Control.

https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~nemirovs/ismp2006.pdf

Selected topics in robust convex optimization

The allocation of surgeries to operating rooms (ORs) is a challenging combinatorial optimization problem. There is also significant uncertainty in the duration of surgical procedures, which further complicates assignment decisions. In this paper, we present stochastic optimization models for the assignment of surgeries to ORs on a given day of surgery. The objective includes a fixed cost of opening ORs and a variable cost of overtime relative to a fixed length-of-day. We describe two types of models. The first is a two-stage stochastic linear program with binary decisions in the first stage and simple recourse in the second stage. The second is its robust counterpart, in which the objective is to minimize the maximum cost associated with an uncertainty set for surgery durations. We describe the mathematical models, bounds on the optimal solution, and solution methodologies, including an easy-to-implement heuristic. Numerical experiments based on real data from a large health-care provider are used to contrast the results for the two models and illustrate the potential for impact in practice. Based on our numerical experimentation, we find that a fast and easy-to-implement heuristic works fairly well, on average, across many instances. We also find that the robust method performs approximately as well as the heuristic, is much faster than solving the stochastic recourse model, and has the benefit of limiting the worst-case outcome of the recourse problem.

/pdf/optimal-allocation-of-surgery-blocks-to-operating-rooms-7kj6utwulm.pdf

Optimal Allocation of Surgery Blocks to Operating Rooms Under Uncertainty

We propose a general methodology based on robust optimization to address the problem of optimally controlling a supply chain subject to stochastic demand in discrete time. This problem has been studied in the past using dynamic programming, which suffers from dimensionality problems and assumes full knowledge of the demand distribution. The proposed approach takes into account the uncertainty of the demand in the supply chain without assuming a specific distribution, while remaining highly tractable and providing insight into the corresponding optimal policy. It also allows adjustment of the level of robustness of the solution to trade off performance and protection against uncertainty. An attractive feature of the proposed approach is its numerical tractability, especially when compared to multidimensional dynamic programming problems in complex supply chains, as the robust problem is of the same difficulty as the nominal problem, that is, a linear programming problem when there are no fixed costs, and a mixed-integer programming problem when fixed costs are present. Furthermore, we show that the optimal policy obtained in the robust approach is identical to the optimal policy obtained in the nominal case for a modified and explicitly computable demand sequence. In this way, we show that the structure of the optimal robust policy is of the same base-stock character as the optimal stochastic policy for a wide range of inventory problems in single installations, series systems, and general supply chains. Preliminary computational results are very promising.

/pdf/a-robust-optimization-approach-to-inventory-theory-1k9aah0o0f.pdf

Aurlie Thiele

Papers

A Robust Optimization Approach to Inventory Theory