A procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of CFD calculations based on grid refinement studies

A factor of safety method for quantitative estimates of grid-spacing and time-step uncertainties fbr solution verification is developed. It removes the two deficiencies of the grid convergence index and correction factor methods, namely, unreasonably small uncertainty when the estimated order of accuracy using the Richardson extrapolation method is greater than the theoretical order of accuracy and lack of statistical evidence that the interval of uncertainty at the 95% confidence level bounds the comparison error. Different error estimates are evaluated using the effectivity index. The uncertainty estimate builds on the correction factor method, but with significant improvements. The ratio of the estimated order of accuracy and theoretical order of accuracy P instead of the correction factor is used as the distance metric to the asymptotic range. The best error estimate is used to construct the uncertainty estimate. The assumption that the factor of safety is symmetric with respect to the asymptotic range was removed through the use of three instead of two factor of safety coefficients. The factor of safety method is validated using statistical analysis of 25 samples with different sizes based on 17 studies covering fluids, thermal, and structure disciplines. Only the factor of safety method, compared with the grid convergence index and correction factor methods, provides a reliability larger than 95% and a lower confidence limit greater than or equal to 1.2 at the 95% confidence level for the true mean of the parent population of the actual factor of safety. This conclusion is true for different studies, variables, ranges of P values, and single P values where multiple actual factors of safety are available. The number of samples is large and the range of P values is wide such that the factor of safety method is also valid for other applications including results not in the asymptotic range, which is typical in industrial and fluid engineering applications. An example for ship hydrodynamics is provided.

http://ftp.demec.ufpr.br/CFD/bibliografia/erros_numericos/Xing_Stern_2010.pdf

Factors of Safety for Richardson Extrapolation

This paper mainly summarizes the recent progresses for the cavitation study in the hydraulic machinery including turbo-pumps, hydro turbines, etc.. Especially, the newly developed numerical methods for simulating cavitating turbulent flows and the achievements with regard to the complicated flow features revealed by using advanced optical techniques as well as cavitation simulation are introduced so as to make a better understanding of the cavitating flow mechanism for hydraulic machinery. Since cavitation instabilities are also vital issue and rather harmful for the operation safety of hydro machines, we present the 1-D analysis method, which is identified to be very useful for engineering applications regarding the cavitating flows in inducers, turbine draft tubes, etc. Though both cavitation and hydraulic machinery are extensively discussed in literatures, one should be aware that a few problems still remains and are open for solution, such as the comprehensive understanding of cavitating turbulent flows especially inside hydro turbines, the unneglectable discrepancies between the numerical and experimental data, etc.. To further promote the study of cavitation in hydraulic machinery, some advanced topics such as a Density-Based solver suitable for highly compressible cavitating turbulent flows, a virtual cavitation tunnel, etc. are addressed for the future works.

B Celik Ismail

Papers

Procedure for Estimation and Reporting of Uncertainty Due to Discretization in CFD Applications