Background Human-induced earthquakes have become an important topic of political and scientific discussion, owing to the concern that these events may be responsible for widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. It has long been known that impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations are capable of inducing earthquakes. In particular, earthquakes caused by injection have become a focal point, as new drilling and well-completion technologies enable the extraction of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes with magnitude (M) ≥ 3 in the U.S. midcontinent, 1967–2012. After decades of a steady earthquake rate (average of 21 events/year), activity increased starting in 2001 and peaked at 188 earthquakes in 2011. Human-induced earthquakes are suspected to be partially responsible for the increase. Advances Microearthquakes (that is, those with magnitudes below 2) are routinely produced as part of the hydraulic fracturing (or “fracking”) process used to stimulate the production of oil, but the process as currently practiced appears to pose a low risk of inducing destructive earthquakes. More than 100,000 wells have been subjected to fracking in recent years, and the largest induced earthquake was magnitude 3.6, which is too small to pose a serious risk. Yet, wastewater disposal by injection into deep wells poses a higher risk, because this practice can induce larger earthquakes. For example, several of the largest earthquakes in the U.S. midcontinent in 2011 and 2012 may have been triggered by nearby disposal wells. The largest of these was a magnitude 5.6 event in central Oklahoma that destroyed 14 homes and injured two people. The mechanism responsible for inducing these events appears to be the well-understood process of weakening a preexisting fault by elevating the fluid pressure. However, only a small fraction of the more than 30,000 wastewater disposal wells appears to be problematic—typically those that dispose of very large volumes of water and/or communicate pressure perturbations directly into basement faults. Outlook Injection-induced earthquakes, such as those that struck in 2011, clearly contribute to the seismic hazard. Quantifying their contribution presents difficult challenges that will require new research into the physics of induced earthquakes and the potential for inducing large-magnitude events. The petroleum industry needs clear requirements for operation, regulators must have a solid scientific basis for those requirements, and the public needs assurance that the regulations are sufficient and are being followed. The current regulatory frameworks for wastewater disposal wells were designed to protect potable water sources from contamination and do not address seismic safety. One consequence is that both the quantity and timeliness of information on injection volumes and pressures reported to regulatory agencies are far from ideal for managing earthquake risk from injection activities. In addition, seismic monitoring capabilities in many of the areas in which wastewater injection activities have increased are not capable of detecting small earthquake activity that may presage larger seismic events.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6142/1225942.full.pdf

Injection-Induced Earthquakes

Faults in Earth’s crust accommodate slow relative motion between tectonic plates through either similarly slow slip or fast, seismic-wave-producing rupture events perceived as earthquakes. These types of behaviour are often assumed to be separated in space and to occur on two different types of fault segment: one with stable, rate-strengthening friction and the other with rate-weakening friction that leads to stick-slip. The 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with moment magnitude M_w = 9.0 challenged such assumptions by accumulating its largest seismic slip in the area that had been assumed to be creeping. Here we propose a model in which stable, rate-strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids, allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events. The model parameters are based on laboratory measurements on samples from the fault of the M_w 7.6 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. The long-term slip behaviour of the model, which we examine using a unique numerical approach that includes all wave effects, reproduces and explains a number of both long-term and coseismic observations—some of them seemingly contradictory—about the faults at which the Tohoku-Oki and Chi-Chi earthquakes occurred, including there being more high-frequency radiation from areas of lower slip, the largest seismic slip in the Tohoku-Oki earthquake having occurred in a potentially creeping segment, the overall pattern of previous events in the area and the complexity of the Tohoku-Oki rupture. The implication that earthquake rupture may break through large portions of creeping segments, which are at present considered to be barriers, requires a re-evaluation of seismic hazard in many areas.

Stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening

A significant number of the early aftershocks following large shallow earthquakes are missing in existing earthquake catalogues. An analysis of the waveforms of 3,647 relocated earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault reveals 11 times more aftershocks within three days of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake than listed in a standard catalogue. Large shallow earthquakes are immediately followed by numerous aftershocks. A significant portion of these events is missing in existing earthquake catalogues, mainly because seismicity after the mainshock can be masked by overlapping arrivals of waves from the mainshock and aftershocks1,2,3,4. However, recovery of the missing early aftershocks is important for understanding the physical mechanisms of earthquake triggering2,3,4, and for tracking postseismic deformation around the rupture zone associated with the mainshock5,6,7. Here we use the waveforms of 3,647 relocated earthquakes8 along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault as templates9,10 to detect missing aftershocks within three days of the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. We identify 11 times more aftershocks than listed in the standard catalogue of the Northern California Seismic Network. We find that the newly detected aftershocks migrate in both along-strike and down-dip directions with logarithmic time since the mainshock, consistent with numerical simulations of the expansion of aftershocks caused by propagating afterslip11,12. The cumulative number of early aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic deformation in the first two days, supporting the view that aftershocks are driven primarily by afterslip13,14.

/pdf/migration-of-early-aftershocks-following-the-2004-parkfield-9p23i0nuyz.pdf

Migration of early aftershocks following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

It is increasingly apparent that faults are typically not discrete planes but zones of deformed rock with a complex internal structure and three-dimensional geometry. In the last decade this has led to renewed interest in the consequences of this complexity for modelling the impact of fault zones on fluid flow and mechanical behaviour of the Earth's crust. A number of processes operate during the development of fault zones, both internally and in the sur- rounding host rock, which may encourage or inhibit continuing fault zone growth. The complexity of the evolution of a faulted system requires changes in the rheological properties of both the fault zone and the surrounding host rock volume, both of which impact on how the fault zone evolves with increasing displacement. Models of the permeability structure of fault zones emphasize the presence of two types of fault rock components: fractured conduits parallel to the fault and gran- ular core zone barriers to flow. New data presented in this paper on porosity- permeability relationships of fault rocks during laboratory deformation tests support recently advancing con- cepts which have extended these models to show that poro-mechanical approaches (e.g., critical state soil mechanics, fracture dilatancy) may be applied to predict the fluid flow behaviour of complex fault zones during the active life of the fault. Predicting the three-dimensional heterogen- eity of fault zone internal structure is important in the hydrocarbon industry for evaluating the retention capacity of faults in exploration contexts and the hydraulic behaviour in production contexts. Across-fault reservoir juxtaposition or non-juxtaposition, a key property in predicting retention or across-fault leakage, is strongly controlled by the three-dimensional complexity of the fault zone. Although algorithms such as shale gouge ratio greatly help predict capillary threshold pressures, quantification of the statistical variation in fault zone composition will allow estimations of uncertainty in fault retention capacity and hence prospect reserve estimations. Permeability structure in the fault zone is an important issue because bulk fluid flow rates through or along a fault zone are dependent on permeability variations, anisotropy and tortuosity of flow paths. A possible way forward is to compare numerical flow models using statistical variations of permeability in a complex fault zone in a given sandstone/shale context with field-scale estimates of fault zone permeability. Fault zone internal structure is equally important in understanding the seismogenic behaviour of faults. Both geometric and compositional complexities can control the nucleation, propagation and arrest of earthquakes. The presence and complex distribution of different fault zone materials of contrasting velocity-weakening and velocity-strengthening prop- erties is an important factor in controlling earthquake nucleation and whether a fault slips seismo- genically or creeps steadily, as illustrated by recent studies of the San Andreas Fault. A synthesis of laboratory experiments presented in this paper shows that fault zone materials which become stronger with increasing slip rate, typically then get weaker as slip rate continues to increase to seismogenic slip rates. Thus the probability that a nucleating rupture can propagate sufficiently to generate a large earthquake depends upon its success in propagating fast enough through these materials in order to give them the required velocity kick. This propagation success is hence controlled by the relative and absolute size distributions of velocity-weakening and vel- ocity-strengthening rocks within the fault zone. Statistical characterisation of the distribution of such contrasting properties within complex fault zones may allow for better predictive models of rupture propagation in the future and provide an additional approach to earthquake size fore- casting and early warnings.

Recent advances in the understanding of fault zone internal structure: a review

Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC), appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one) that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (< 1% per day). Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecasting of aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale) in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy, which may also be useful in other countries. The public should be provided with open sources of information about the short-term probabilities of future earthquakes that are authoritative, scientific, consistent, and timely. Advisories should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated seismicity forecasting systems that have been rigorously reviewed and updated by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake information. The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and they should be under continuous prospective testing against established long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public. Earthquake probability thresholds should be established to guide alert levels based on objective analysis of costs and benefits, as well as the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. The principles of effective public communication established by social science research should be applied to the delivery of seismic hazard information.

/pdf/operational-earthquake-forecasting-state-of-knowledge-and-4t0v3rfrup.pdf

OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

B. Dost

Papers

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake