Journal ArticleDOI
Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
William H. Bakun,Brad T. Aagaard,B. Dost,William L. Ellsworth,Jeanne L. Hardebeck,Ruth A. Harris,Chen Ji,M. J. S. Johnston,John Langbein,James J. Lienkaemper,Andrew J. Michael,Jessica R. Murray,Robert M. Nadeau,Paul A. Reasenberg,M. S. Reichle,Evelyn Roeloffs,A. Shakal,Robert W. Simpson,Felix Waldhauser +18 more
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TLDR
The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable and the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking should be developed.Abstract:
Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Injection-Induced Earthquakes
TL;DR: The current understanding of the causes and mechanics of earthquakes caused by human activity, including injection of wastewater into deep formations and emerging technologies related to oil and gas recovery, is reviewed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening
Hiroyuki Noda,Nadia Lapusta +1 more
TL;DR: A model in which stable, rate-strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids, allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Migration of early aftershocks following the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
Zhigang Peng,Peng Zhao +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of the waveforms of 3,647 relocated earthquakes along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault reveals 11 times more aftershocks within three days of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake than listed in a standard catalogue.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent advances in the understanding of fault zone internal structure: a review
TL;DR: In this paper, the porosity- permeability relationships of fault rocks during laboratory deformation tests support recently advancing con- cepts which have extended these models to show that poro-mechanical approaches may be applied to predict the fluid flow behavior of complex fault zones during the active life of the fault.
Journal ArticleDOI
OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING. State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization
Thomas H. Jordan,Yun-Tai Chen,Paolo Gasparini,Raul Madariaga,Ian Main,Warner Marzocchi,Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos,Gennady Sobolev,Koshun Yamaoka,Jochen Zschau +9 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A Double-Difference Earthquake Location Algorithm: Method and Application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California
TL;DR: In this paper, a least square solver is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs to minimize residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences.
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Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of scarp-derived colluvium in trench exposures across the Wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes.
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Equations for Estimating Horizontal Response Spectra and Peak Acceleration from Western North American Earthquakes: A Summary of Recent Work
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide tables for estimating random horizontal component peak acceleration and 5 percent damped pseudo-acceleration response spectra in terms of the natural, rather than common, logarithm of the ground-motion parameter.
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A silent slip event on the deeper Cascadia subduction interface.
TL;DR: Continuous Global Positioning System sites in southwestern British Columbia, Canada, and northwestern Washington state, USA, have been moving landward as a result of the locked state of the Cascadia subduction fault offshore, and a cluster of seven sites briefly reversed their direction of motion in the summer of 1999.
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Time‐predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present historical and geomorphological evidence of a regularity in earthquake recurrence at three different sites of plate convergence around the Japan arcs, showing that the larger an earthquake is, the longer is the following quiet period.