The article is devoted to the development of tools for analysis and forecasting of performance indicators of Russian universities that have a direct impact on the performance of the program «Digital Economy of the Russian Federation», as well as national projects. The proposed tools are based on mathematical modeling of the results of the publication activity of the University faculty, presented in the world's leading scientometric systems. For example, we consider one of the leading Russian universities (excluding branches). The publications of its employees in publications indexed in information-analytical systems of scientific citation Scopus and Web of Science from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed. All employees were divided into groups, depending on their publication activity, expressed in the form of the annual number of publications. When modeling the transition of employees from one group to another, depending on the number of their publications, the apparatus of Markov chains was used. The constructed model was used to predict possible scenarios of changes in the total number of publications of the organization in the databases of Scopus and Web of Science. The direct task of implementing several scenarios of increasing the number of publications was considered, as well as the inverse problem of finding a management solution to achieve a result in a timely manner. As a result, it was found that the most acceptable for this University scenario is the one in which a third of the faculty staff annually increases the number of publications by 1.5 units within two years. From a practical point of view, the presented results are useful for the University administration to assess the current state of the publication activity of the organization as a whole and its improvement in the near future. This will lead to an increase in the indicators of scientific activity of the University and strengthen its position in the world rankings. The use of the proposed tools will contribute to the solution of tasks to achieve the indicators of the program «Digital Economy of the Russian Federation», in particular, Russia's place in the ranking of GTCI, as well as the national projects «Education» and «Science».

Modeling Publication Activity of the Faculty and Managing Scientific Indicators of the University

The article is devoted to the study of the publication activity of the faculty staff, which is reflected in the world’s leading scientometric systems. The report presents tools for comparative analysis of two main scientometric indicators – the Hirsch index in the RSCI system and the number of publications indexed in Scopus and Web of Science. Significant features that characterize the faculty staff and their publication activity were determined, on the basis of which the clustering of scientific activities was carried out. As a result of cluster analysis, the faculty staff was divided into eight meaningfully interpreted clusters with similar characteristics of employees and their publication activity. A structural model of teacher transitions between selected clusters is presented. The drivers of the University’s scientific activity are only two clusters out of eight, in which the publication activity is most pronounced. Employees in the other clusters should also fall into these two groups. From a practical point of view, the presented results can be useful for management to assess the current state of scientific activity and its improvement. This approach is universal and can be carried out in any educational organization of higher education, regardless of its specifics. This will help universities to conduct self-analysis and manage the performance of departments, in particular, to improve the results of publication activity.

Clustering of Scientific Activity of Faculty Staff Based on the Results of Publication Activity

Publication activity in the field of Biomedical Engineering in 2003-2012 (citation index, impact factor, SCImago Journal Ranking (SJR), Source-Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP), Hirsch index) is reviewed. The algorithm of the search for information in the Scopus database (DB) is explained. Within the last decade (2003-2012) a total of 76,851 works devoted to biomedical engineering were issued worldwide (16% of publications in the field of medicine). The annual increment of the Scopus DB is 7,700 ± 300 works in biomedical engineering. The integration of Russian researchers in the international community is still insufficient (only 546 papers of Russian authors were included in the Scopus DB). Ways to improve the publication activity of domestic scientists are discussed.

B. I. Leonov

Papers

[Analysis of publication activity in the field of biomedical engineering in 2003-2012].