The NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) now includes an atmospheric component that extends in altitude to the lower thermosphere. This atmospheric model, known as the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), includes fully interactive chemistry, allowing, for example, a self-consistent representationofthedevelopmentandrecoveryofthestratosphericozoneholeanditseffectonthetroposphere.This paper focuses on analysis of an ensemble of transient simulations using CESM1(WACCM), covering the period from the preindustrial era to present day, conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Variability in the stratosphere, such as that associated with stratospheric sudden warmings and the development of the ozone hole, is in good agreement with observations. The signals of these phenomena propagate into the troposphere, influencing near-surface winds, precipitation rates, and the extent of sea ice. In comparison of tropospheric climate change predictions with those from a version of CESM that does not fully resolve the stratosphere, the global-mean temperature trends are indistinguishable. However, systematic differences do exist in other climate variables, particularly in the extratropics. The magnitude of the difference can be as large as the climate change response itself. This indicates that the representation of stratosphere‐ troposphere coupling could be a major source of uncertainty in climate change projections in CESM.

/pdf/climate-change-from-1850-to-2005-simulated-in-cesm1-waccm-4chejh3sww.pdf

Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM)

[1] We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to produce a small (three-member) ensemble of simulations of the period 1950–2003. Comparison of model results against available observations shows that for the most part, the model is able to reproduce well the observed trends in zonal mean temperature and ozone, both as regards their magnitude and their distribution in latitude and altitude. Calculated trends in water vapor, on the other hand, are not at all consistent with observations from either the HALOE satellite instrument or the Boulder, Colorado, hygrosonde data set. We show that such lack of agreement is actually to be expected because water vapor has various sources of low-frequency variability (heating due to volcanic eruptions, the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Nino–Southern Oscillation) that can confound the determination of secular trends. The simulations also reveal the presence of other interesting behavior, such as the lack of any significant temperature trend near the mesopause, a decrease in the stratospheric age of air, and the rare occurrence of an extremely disturbed Southern Hemisphere winter.

/pdf/simulation-of-secular-trends-in-the-middle-atmosphere-1950-529l1votox.pdf

Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950–2003

Knowledge of the atmospheric chemistry of reactive greenhouse gases is needed to accurately quantify the relationship between human activities and climate, and to incorporate uncertainty in our projections of greenhouse gas abundances. We present a method for estimating the fraction of greenhouse gases attributable to human activities, both currently and for future scenarios. Key variables used to calculate the atmospheric chemistry and budgets of major non-CO2greenhouse gases are codified along with their uncertainties, and then used to project budgets and abundances under the new climate-change scenarios. This new approach uses our knowledge of changing abundances and lifetimes to estimate current total anthropogenic emissions, independently and possibly more accurately than inventory-based scenarios. We derive a present-day atmospheric lifetime for methane (CH4) of 9.1 ± 0.9 y and anthropogenic emissions of 352 ± 45 Tg/y (64% of total emissions). For N2O, corresponding values are 131 ± 10 y and 6.5 ± 1.3 TgN/y (41% of total); and for HFC-134a, the lifetime is 14.2 ± 1.5 y.

https://myweb.fsu.edu/cdholmes/pubs/prather2012.pdf

Reactive greenhouse gas scenarios: Systematic exploration of uncertainties and the role of atmospheric chemistry

A photochemical model of Titan's atmosphere and ionosphere

. In this paper, we present a description of the tropospheric chemistry component of the UK Chemistry and Aerosols (UKCA) model which has been coupled to the Met Office Hadley Centre's HadGEM family of climate models. We assess the model's transport and scavenging processes, in particular focussing on convective transport, boundary layer mixing, wet scavenging and inter-hemispheric exchange. Simulations with UKCA of the short-lived radon tracer suggest that modelled distributions are comparable to those of other models and the comparison with observations indicate that apart from a few locations, boundary layer mixing and convective transport are effective in the model as a means of vertically redistributing surface emissions of radon. Comparisons of modelled lead tracer concentrations with observations suggest that UKCA captures surface concentrations in both hemispheres very well, although there is a tendency to underestimate the observed geographical and interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, UKCA replicates the shape and absolute concentrations of observed lead profiles, a key test in the evaluation of a model's wet scavenging scheme. The timescale for inter-hemispheric transport, calculated in the model using a simple krypton tracer experiment, does appear to be long relative to other models and could indicate deficiencies in tropical deep convection and/or insufficient boundary layer mixing. We also describe the main components of the tropospheric chemistry and evaluate it against observations and other tropospheric chemistry models. In particular, from a climate forcing perspective, present-day observed surface methane concentrations and tropospheric ozone concentrations are reproduced very well by the model, thereby making it suitable for long centennial integrations as well as studies of biogeochemical feedbacks. Results from both historical and future simulations with UKCA tropospheric chemistry are presented. Future projections of tropospheric ozone vary with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In RCP2.6, for example, tropospheric ozone increases up to 2010 and then declines by 13% of its year-2000 global mean by the end of the century. In RCP8.5, tropospheric ozone continues to rise steadily throughout the 21st century, with methane being the main driving factor. Finally, we highlight aspects of the UKCA model which are undergoing and/or have undergone recent developments and are suitable for inclusion in a next-generation Earth System Model.

/pdf/evaluation-of-the-new-ukca-climate-composition-model-part-2-32fw4u1pvf.pdf

B. J. Finlayson-Pitts

Papers

Chemical kinetics and photochemical data for use in atmospheric studies. Evaluation No. 14 (JPL Publication 02-25)