Dedicated to the memory of three pioneers, Ihsan Ketin, Sirri Erinc and Melih Tokay, and a recent student, Aykut Barka, who burnt himself out in pursuit of the mysteries of the North Anatolian Fault. ▪ Abstract The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a 1200-km-long dextral strike-slip fault zone that formed by progressive strain localization in a generally westerly widening right-lateral keirogen in northern Turkey mostly along an interface juxtaposing subduction-accretion material to its south and older and stiffer continental basements to its north. The NAF formed approximately 13 to 11 Ma ago in the east and propagated westward. It reached the Sea of Marmara no earlier than 200 ka ago, although shear-related deformation in a broad zone there had already commenced in the late Miocene. The fault zone has a very distinct morphological expression and is seismically active. Since the seventeenth century, it has shown cyclical seismic behavior, with century-long cycles beginning in the east and progressing westwa...

The north anatolian fault: a new look

Preface 1. Macroseismic information 2. Evaluation of macroseismic data 3. Catalogue of earthquakes 4. Evaluation of instrumental data 5. Long-term seismicity 6. Future challenges Appendix: Photographs of researchers in the field References Index.

Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: A Multidisciplinary Study of Seismicity up to 1900

Between 1939 and 1999 the North Anatolian fault (NAF) experienced a westward progression of eight large earthquakes over 800 km of its morphological trace. The 2000-km-long North Anatolian transform fault has also grown by westward propagation through continental lithosphere over a much longer timescale (∼10 Myr). The Sea of Marmara is a large pull-apart that appears to have been a geometrical/mechanical obstacle encountered by the NAF during its propagation. The present paper focuses on new high-resolution data on the submarine fault system that forms a smaller pull-apart beneath the Northern Sea of Marmara, between two well-known strike-slip faults on land (Izmit and Ganos faults). The outstandingly clear submarine morphology reveals a segmented fault system including pull-apart features at a range of scales, which indicate a dominant transtensional tectonic regime. There is no evidence for a single, continuous, purely strike-slip fault. This result is critical to understanding of the seismic behaviour of this region of the NAF, close to Istanbul. Additionally, morphological and geological evidence is found for a stable kinematics consistent both with the long-term displacement field determined for the past 5 Myr and with present-day Anatolia/Eurasia motion determined with GPS. However, within the Sea of Marmara region the fault kinematics involves asymmetric slip partitioning that appears to have extended throughout the evolution of the pull-apart. The loading associated with the westward propagation process of the NAF may have provided a favourable initial geometry for such a slip separation.

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Asymmetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault?

[1] New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500– 2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004–2034 regional Poisson probability of M � 7 earthquakes is � 38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M � 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity. INDEX TERMS: 7223 Seismology: Seismic hazard assessment and prediction; 7230 Seismology: Seismicity and seismotectonics; 8150 Tectonophysics: Plate boundary—general (3040); KEYWORDS: earthquake probability, Sea of Marmara, seismic hazard, Turkey, stress interaction, North Anatolian fault

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003JB002667

Recalculated probability of M >= 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

Slip Partitioning in the Sea of Marmara Pull-Apart: A Clue to Propagation Processes of the North Anatolian Fault ?

The active Main Marmara Fault

The disastrous 1999 earthquakes in Turkey have spurred the international community to study the geometry and behavior of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. While the area is considered mature for a large earthquake, the detailed fault geometry below the Marmara Sea is uncertain, and this prevents a realistic assessment of seismic hazards in the highly-populated region close to Istanbul.

Two geological/geophysical surveys were recently conducted in the Marmara Sea: the first in November 2000 with the R/V Odin Finder, and the second in June 2001 with the R/V CNR-Urania. Both were sponsored and organized by the Institute of Marine Geology of the Italian National Research Council (CNR), in cooperation with the Turkish Council for Scientific and Technical Research (TUBITAK) and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University Multi-beam bathymetry, multi-channel seismic reflection profiling, magnetometry high-resolution CHIRP sub-bottom profiling, and bottom imaging were carried out with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV). Over 60 gravity and piston cores were collected.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2002EO000158

B. Tok

Papers

The active Main Marmara Fault

Exploring submarine earthquake geology in the Marmara Sea

Seismicity of the Marmara Region and It's Indications Concerning the Other Geophysical and Geological Findings

The Habitability of Europa: A Cautionary Note